• ARLP030 Propagation de K7RA

    From ARRL Web site@21:1/5 to All on Fri Jul 29 19:14:58 2022
    XPost: rec.radio.shortwave, rec.radio.info

    SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP030
    ARLP030 Propagation de K7RA

    ZCZC AP30
    QST de W1AW
    Propagation Forecast Bulletin 30 ARLP030
    From Tad Cook, K7RA
    Seattle, WA July 29, 2022
    To all radio amateurs

    SB PROP ARL ARLP030
    ARLP030 Propagation de K7RA

    Although images of the sun this reporting week, July 21 to 27,
    showed plenty of sunspots, only two new spots emerged, one on July
    21, and another on July 25.

    Another new sunspot appeared on July 28, but the sunspot number
    declined to 50 from 52 the day before.

    Average daily sunspot number declined from 137.3 to 91.1, and
    average daily solar flux softened by 50 points to 107.6.

    The headline on spaceweather.com on July 28 said, "Quiet Sun."

    Geomagnetic indicators began this reporting week fairly active, with
    planetary A index at 22, then it quickly quieted down to an average
    of 11.7 for the week, higher than the 9.4 average reported last
    week. Average middle-latitude A index increased from 9 to 10.4.

    A look back a year ago shows this cycle is progressing nicely. In
    ARLP030 in 2021 average daily sunspot number was just 48.9, and
    average daily solar flux only 81.3.

    A year prior the average daily sunspot number in 2020 was just 3.1!
    That is because there were five days with no sunspots, then two days
    with a sunspot number of only 11, which is the minimum non-zero
    sunspot number.

    A sunspot number of 11 does not mean 11 sunspots. It means there
    was just 1 sunspot group (which counts for 10 points) and one
    sunspot in that group, counting for 1, producing a total of 11,
    because of the arcane historical method of counting sunspots.

    Predicted solar flux shows it peaking at 130 on August 11.

    Predicted flux is 92 on July 29 to 31, 90 on August 1, 88 on August
    2 to 4, 92 on August 5, 115 on August 6, 113 on August 7 and 8, then
    120, 125, 130 and 125 on August 9 to 12, 120 on August 13 to 15, 118
    on August 16 and 17, then 114 and 110 on August 18 and 19, 108 on
    August 20 and 21, then 106 and 102 on August 22 and 23, 100 on
    August 24 to 27, 108 on August 28 and 29, 110 on August 30 and 31,
    115 on September 1 and 2, and 113 on September 3 and 4. Solar flux
    peaks again at 130 on September 7.

    Predicted planetary A index is 8 and 12 on July 29 and 30, 8 on July
    31 and August 1, 5 on August 2, 8 on August 3 and 4, 5 on August 5
    to 10, 8 on August 11 and 12, 5 on August 13 to 16, 22 on August 17,
    15 on August 18 and 19, 8 on August 20 and 21, 5 on August 22 to 25,
    10 and 12 on August 26 and 27, 5 on August 28 and 29, 12 and 10 on
    August 30 and 31, and 5 on September 1 to 6.

    USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report, 2200 UTC on 28 Jul 2022

    https://bit.ly/3votD3A

    OK1HH wrote on July 28:

    "Over the last seven days, solar activity has been steadily
    decreasing. From some class C flares to the 'almost no chance of
    flares' announcement today. But we observed some interesting
    anomalies. For example, geomagnetic disturbance on July 21 caused
    two improvements in ionospheric shortwave propagation conditions
    around 1400 and 1930 UTC.

    A CME hit Earth's magnetic field on July 23rd at 0259 UTC. The
    impact triggered a G1-class geomagnetic storm and in the early hours
    of the morning UTC, 6-meter band users were able to establish a
    series of contacts between central Europe and the US East Coast.

    The proton density in the solar wind, which suddenly rose on 27 July
    between 2000 and 2100 UTC, was accompanied by a significant
    improvement in shortwave propagation between Europe and the
    Caribbean, while closed at the same time the path between Europe and
    North America.

    A small coronal hole of positive polarity located just to the north
    of the solar equator that crossed the central meridian on July 26 is
    expected to influence solar wind starting July 29. Geomagnetic
    activity will increase again."

    KD6JUI wrote:

    "I go out in my kayak once per week to operate QRP. Today,
    Thursday, July 28, I set out on Lake Solano (northern CA) not
    expecting much action due to a low solar flux (93.4) and predicted
    MUF of about 14 MHz.

    When I first checked 17m I heard a CW pileup apparently going after
    a Swiss station. I had a couple contacts on 17 and 20m. A couple
    hours later, I moved from the middle of the lake to the shade of a
    tree along the bank (temps were in the high 90s). My loop antenna
    was half surrounded by foliage, which I figured would interfere with
    my signal. Nonetheless, I gave 17m CW a try again, and contacted
    F8IHE almost immediately. All he could copy was my call sign, but
    that was enough for me!

    Always a surprise."

    What are sunspots?

    https://bit.ly/3vk6GhW

    Fun Morse Code app:

    https://morsle.fun/help/

    A fun one-hour twice weekly relaxed CW activity, the Slow Speed
    Test, every Friday and Sunday:

    http://www.k1usn.com/sst.html

    Send your tips, reports, observations, questions and comments to
    k7ra@arrl.net.

    For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation and the ARRL Technical Information
    Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals. For an
    explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere.

    An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation. More good
    information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/.

    Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL
    bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins.

    Sunspot numbers for July 21 through 27, 2022 were 124, 107, 96, 80,
    100, 78, and 53, with a mean of 91.1. 10.7 cm flux was 121.7,
    114.7, 110.5, 107.1, 102.3, 98.8, and 98, with a mean of 107.6.
    Estimated planetary A indices were 22, 11, 17, 9, 6, 8, and 9, with
    a mean of 11.7. Middle latitude A index was 14, 11, 15, 9, 8, 7,
    and 9, with a mean of 10.4.
    NNNN
    /EX

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From ARRL Web site@21:1/5 to All on Fri Jul 28 17:52:59 2023
    XPost: rec.radio.shortwave, rec.radio.info

    SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP030
    ARLP030 Propagation de K7RA

    ZCZC AP30
    QST de W1AW
    Propagation Forecast Bulletin 30 ARLP030
    From Tad Cook, K7RA
    Seattle, WA July 28, 2023
    To all radio amateurs

    SB PROP ARL ARLP030
    ARLP030 Propagation de K7RA

    Average daily sunspot numbers declined slightly over the past week
    (July 20-26) to 128.1, compared to 130.6 over the previous seven
    days.

    Average daily solar flux declined significantly from 190.5 to 172.2.

    The solar flux forecast sees values at 165 and 162 on July 28-29,
    158 on July 30-31, then 155 on August 1-3, then 165, 170 and 175 on
    August 4-6, 180 on August 7-10, 175 on August 11-13, 180 on August
    14-15, 175 on August 16-18, 170 on August 19, then 165, 165 and 160
    on August 20-22, and 155 on August 23-26, 160 on August 27, 165 on
    August 28-30, 170 and 175 on August 31 through September 1, and 180
    on September 2-6.

    Predicted planetary A index is 5 on July 28-29, 15 and 10 on July
    30-31, 5 on August 1-3, 8 on August 4, 5 on August 5-9, 10 on August
    10, 8 on August 11-13, 5 on August 14-19, then 10, 8 and 5 on August
    20-22, 12 on August 23-24, 10 on August 25-26, 5 on August 27-29, 10
    and 8 on August 30-31, and 5 on September 1-5.

    Weekly Commentary on the Sun, the Magnetosphere, and the Earth's
    Ionosphere -- July 27, 2023 from OK1HH.

    "The likelihood of more massive solar flares has slowly decreased in
    recent days as large groups of spots have fallen behind the western
    limb of the solar disk and the magnetic configuration of the
    remaining regions has become increasingly simple over the past few
    days.

    On July 20 and 21, two CMEs struck Earth's magnetic field in
    accordance with the prediction. However, both impacts were weak and
    did not produce even a minor geomagnetic storm.

    Another weak halo CME was expected to leave the Sun on 23 July at
    about 1530 UTC in a C5 class flare in spot group AR3376, coinciding
    with the outburst of a relatively nearby magnetic filament. The
    Earth's magnetic field detected its arrival at 0200 UTC on 26 July.
    The result was an increase in geomagnetic activity and a
    deterioration of shortwave propagation conditions. The disturbance
    actually started on 25 July at 2235 UTC, but it was not clear
    whether it was an early arrival of the same CME or another one that
    we did not detect.

    Note: since I will be abroad next week, I will not post the next
    comment on August 3, but on August 10."

    Sunspots, flares and aurora. https://bit.ly/44JxcRp

    Mars Rover sees the far side of the sun. https://bit.ly/3KbRV8b

    Rocket punches hole in ionosphere. https://bit.ly/3KceBFB

    Nearly five decades ago I witnessed the same thing, viewed from
    Marin County, California. It was a huge dramatic display, My friend
    had seen it before, and said it was created by a rocket launch from
    Vandenberg AFB in Southern California.

    Another CME. https://bit.ly/44LhRjx

    On July 27, Spaceweather.com sent this alert:

    "A STRONG FARSIDE CME JUST HIT SOLAR ORBITER: Europe's Solar Orbiter
    just got hit by the kind of CME that may have once caused a major
    power blackout on Earth. This time, Earth was not in the line of
    fire. It was a farside eruption that flew away from our planet.
    Maybe next time?"

    Massive flare? https://bit.ly/3Ya7OSC

    Latest from Dr. Tamitha Skov. https://youtu.be/cD5VbWvBXsE

    Send your tips, reports, observations, questions and comments to
    k7ra@arrl.net. When reporting observations, don't forget to tell
    us which mode you were operating.

    For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation and the ARRL Technical Information
    Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals . For an
    explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere .

    Also, check this article from September, 2002 QST:

    https://www.arrl.org/files/file/Technology/tis/info/pdf/0209038.pdf

    An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation . More good
    information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/

    Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL
    bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins

    Sunspot numbers for July 20 through 26, 2023 were 131, 121, 103,
    117, 141, 137, and 147, with a mean of 128.1 10.7 cm flux was
    184.3, 172.8, 174.4, 172.5, 165.1, 169, and 167.4, with a mean of
    172.2. Estimated planetary A indices were 10, 13, 9, 6, 7, 11, and
    21, with a mean of 11. Middle latitude A index was 10, 11, 9, 5, 8,
    12, and 23, with a mean of 11.1.
    NNNN
    /EX

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