• Weekly Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity, 18 - 24 July 2022

    From SWPC.Webmaster@noaa.gov@21:1/5 to All on Mon Jul 25 13:00:08 2022
    XPost: rec.radio.amateur.space, rec.radio.shortwave, rec.radio.info

    :Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
    :Issued: 2022 Jul 25 0307 UTC
    # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
    # Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
    # https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/content/subscription-services
    #
    # Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
    #
    Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
    18 - 24 July 2022

    Solar activity was low. Only C-class flare activity was observed
    during the period with a C5.6 flare from Region 3060 and a C6.1 from
    Region 3056 on 21 Jul being the largest events. The C5.6 flare
    caused the eruption of an approximately 12 degree long filament
    centered near N15W01. This resulted in Type II and IV radio sweeps,
    est. 1063 Km/s, and a full halo CME. No other Earth-directed CMEs
    were observed.

    No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.

    The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at
    high levels on 20-21 Jul with a peak flux of 1,920 pfu observed at
    GOES at 20/1620 UTC. The 2 MeV electron flux was at background to
    moderate levels 18-19 Jul and 22-24 Jul.

    Geomagnetic field activity reached active to G1 (Minor) storming
    levels on 19 Jul with the arrival of the 15 Jul CME from the
    previous reporting period. G1 (Minor) levels were reached again on
    21 Jul due to negative polarity CH HSS effects. Predominantly
    unsettled levels continued afterwards until early on 23 Jul when an
    isolated G1 (Minor) storming period was observed yet again with the
    arrival of the full halo CME from 21 Jul. Primarily quiet conditions
    were observed on 18, 20 and 23-24 Jul with isolated unsettled
    periods.

    Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
    25 July - 20 August 2022

    Solar activity is expected to be at low levels with a slight chance
    for R1-2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts through 08 Aug. Activity
    is expected to increase to a chance for R1-2 (Minor-Moderate) radio
    blackouts 09-18 Aug with the anticipated return of more active,
    compex regions. Low levels will likely return 19-20 Aug barring
    significant development of new active regions.

    No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.

    The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is
    expected to be at moderate to high levels through 27 Jul in response
    to negative polarity CH HSS effects. Background to moderate levels
    are anticipated for 28 Jul through 11 Aug. A chance for high levels
    returns 12 Aug through the remainder of the period due to recurrent
    CH features.

    Geomagnetic field activity is expected to reach G1 (Minor) storming
    on 17 Aug, and reach active levels on 31 Jul, 03 Aug and 18-19 Aug
    due to recurrent CH HSS features. Otherwise, quiet to unsettled
    conditions are expected for the forecast period.

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)