• ARLP026 Propagation de K7RA

    From ARRL Web site@21:1/5 to All on Fri Jul 1 19:35:14 2022
    XPost: rec.radio.shortwave, rec.radio.info

    SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP026
    ARLP026 Propagation de K7RA

    ZCZC AP26
    QST de W1AW
    Propagation Forecast Bulletin 26 ARLP026
    From Tad Cook, K7RA
    Seattle, WA July 1, 2022
    To all radio amateurs

    SB PROP ARL ARLP026
    ARLP026 Propagation de K7RA

    Solar activity took a dramatic plunge over the recent reporting week
    (June 23 to 29) but geomagnetic activity stayed exactly the same.
    Field Day weekend saw rising geomagnetic numbers, with planetary A
    index at 8, 16 and 23, Friday through Sunday.

    On Sunday the geomagnetic activity was a problem, although not
    severe, with many stations in Field Day reporting increased
    absorption. The planetary K index peaked at 5 (a big number) at the
    end of the UTC day on Saturday and continued into the early hours of
    Sunday, which was early Saturday evening here on the West Coast.

    This happened because of a crack in Earth's magnetosphere, detailed
    here:

    https://bit.ly/3ONZdQ9

    Compared to the previous seven days, average daily sunspot numbers
    declined from 124.6 to 49.1, while average daily solar flux dropped
    from 140.5 to 105.3.

    Planetary and middle latitude A-index averages were both the same as
    the previous week, all numbers around 11.

    The prediction from the USAF 557th Weather Wing is not very
    optimistic, with solar flux peaking at 140 on July 11 to 16.

    The prediction shows 10.7 cm solar flux at 90 on July 1, 95 on July
    2, 105 on July 3 to 5, then 110, 120, 130 and 135 on July 7 to 10,
    140 on July 11 to 16, then 135, 130, 125 and 120 on July 17 to 20,
    and 115, 110, 105 and 100 on July 21 to 24, 95 on July 25 and 26,
    100 on July 27 to 29, then 105, 110, 115, 120 and 125 on July 30
    through August 3, then 130 on August 4 and 5, and back to 140 again
    on August 7 to 12.

    Predicted planetary A-index is 5 on July 1 to 7, then 8, 8, 12 and 8
    on July 8 to 11, 5 on July 12 and 13, 12 on July 14 to 16, 10 on
    July 17, 8 on July 18 to 21, then 12, 15, 15 and 10 on July 22 to
    25, and 5 on July 26 through August 4, then 8, 12 and 8 on August 5
    to 7.

    F. K. Janda, OK1HH writes, "Solar activity has declined over the
    last seven days. Geomagnetic activity was highest on June 26
    (G1-class geomagnetic storm broke out around midnight UT on June 25
    and 26) and was lower on June 28 and 29. On June 26, a big, bright
    CME billowed away from the sun's southern hemisphere. A slow-moving
    CME that left the sun could pass close to Earth on June 30. The
    near miss, if it occurs, could disturb our planet's magnetic field.

    A dark filament of magnetism erupted in the sun's northern
    hemisphere on June 28, but no CME was observed after the explosion.
    Shortwave propagation conditions were relatively worse on June 26
    and 27. After that, they began to improve, but only very slowly due
    to the declining solar activity."

    A new space weather report and forecast from Dr. Tamitha Skov,
    WX6SWW, our Space Weather Woman.

    https://youtu.be/0yAS_FpLTsk

    Tomas Bayer of the Department of Geomagnetism, RWC Prague, at the
    Budkov Observatory wrote this geomagnetic activity summary:

    "After the last active events on June 24 to 26, which without a
    storm event did not exceed the active level (local K-index = 4), we
    expect a geomagnetic activity decrease to quiet to unsettled level
    during the coming seven days.

    More unsettled geomagnetic activity can be expected about July 3 and
    4, and also at the end of the currently forecast period on July 7.
    Then we expect geomagnetic activity at a quiet to unsettled level."

    Here are pictures of the Budkov Observatory:

    https://bit.ly/3ugnUfv

    https://bit.ly/3bH9Pl4

    How big is our nearest star?

    https://bit.ly/3yb6cv6

    Cycle forecasts, wrong or right?

    https://bit.ly/3R3HQfF

    Storm watch, from the popular press:

    https://bit.ly/3bGvXfs

    Reader David Moore, a frequent contributor, sent this:

    https://bit.ly/3Agoo9g

    It hasn't been updated recently, but here is a blog devoted to
    propagation:

    http://ka5dwipropagation.blogspot.com

    Send your tips, questions or comments to k7ra@arrl.net.

    For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation and the ARRL Technical Information
    Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals. For an
    explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere.

    An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation. More good
    information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/ .

    Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL
    bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins.

    Sunspot numbers for June 23 through 29, 2022 were 69, 60, 31, 33,
    32, 71, and 48, with a mean of 49.1. 10.7 cm flux was 121.4, 115.4,
    108.1, 102, 98.2, 96.1, and 96.2, with a mean of 105.3. Estimated
    planetary A indices were 10, 8, 16, 23, 12, 8, and 6, with a mean of
    11.9. Middle latitude A index was 12, 8, 14, 15, 15, 11, and 7, with
    a mean of 11.7.
    NNNN
    /EX

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  • From ARRL Web site@21:1/5 to All on Fri Jun 30 12:38:24 2023
    XPost: rec.radio.shortwave, rec.radio.info

    SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP026
    ARLP026 Propagation de K7RA

    ZCZC AP26
    QST de W1AW
    Propagation Forecast Bulletin 26 ARLP026
    From Tad Cook, K7RA
    Seattle, WA June 30, 2023
    To all radio amateurs

    SB PROP ARL ARLP026
    ARLP026 Propagation de K7RA

    Space Weather News sent this alert on June 29:

    "BIG SUNSPOT ALERT: One of the biggest sunspots in years is directly
    facing Earth. AR3354 is 10 times wider than Earth and about 1/3rd
    the size of the historical Carrington sunspot. It's so big,
    observers in Europe and North America are seeing it naked eye
    through the smoke of Canadian wildfires. Earth-directed flares are
    likely in the days ahead."

    See https://spaceweather.com/ for continuing coverage.

    Conditions were favorable over the Field Day weekend, with the
    exception of a brief period when the planetary K index rose to 5 on
    Saturday night. This is mentioned in the commentary by OK1HH which
    follows.

    There were five new sunspot groups on June 23, two more on June 24,
    another on June 26 and another on June 27.

    Average daily sunspot numbers were up, and solar flux was down.

    Average daily sunspot number rose from 143 to 170, and average daily
    solar flux declined slightly from 165.4 to 160.3.

    This is unexpected, because we normally see these values track
    together.

    Predicted solar flux is 150 on June 30 through July 5, 155 on July
    6, 135 on July 7-8, then 145, 155, 160, 165 and 170 on July 9-13,
    175 on July 14-18, 170 on July 19-21, then 160, 150, 145, 145, 140
    and 135 on July 22-27, then 130 on July 28 through August 1, 135 on
    August 2-4, then 145, 155, and 165 on August 5-7. Flux values may
    continue to rise to a peak of 175 before mid-August.

    Predicted planetary A index is 8, 15 and 10 on June 30 through July
    2, 5 on July 3-7, 12 and 8 on July 8-9, 5 on July 10-11, then a
    stormy 20 and 30 on July 12-13, 8 on July 14-23, 12 on July 24-25, 8
    on July 26-27, 12 on July 28-29, 8 on July 30, 5 on July 31 through
    August 3, 12 and 8 on August 4-5, 5 on August 6-7, then 20 and 30
    again on August 8-9. Note that recurring stormy conditions are
    predicted at one solar rotation, which is about 27.5 days, following
    the July 12-13 prediction.

    The above predictions are from forecasters Thompson and Kiser at the
    USAF space weather group.

    Weekly Commentary on the Sun, the Magnetosphere, and the Earth's
    Ionosphere June 30 to July 06, 2023 from F.K. Janda OK1HH.

    "In the solar X-ray field during June we could observe the most
    significant solar flare so far: X1 in the active region AR3341. It
    happened on June 20 at 1709 UTC near the southeastern limb of the
    solar disk. In the region where the Sun was high, it caused the
    Dellinger Effect, https://bit.ly/3NA61kT .

    "The same sunspot group was also the source of the M4.8 flare two
    days later. It ejected a CME, but not toward Earth.

    "Nevertheless, its passage close to Earth probably caused an
    increase in geomagnetic activity on the evening of 24 June.
    Theoretically, it could also have been a CME from the X1 eruption of
    20 June.

    "On June 26, we were surprised by sunspot group AR3354 just above
    the solar equator and east of the central meridian. It did not exist
    the day prior. Over the next two days its area grew to ten times the
    size of the Earth, making it easily observable by the naked eye.

    "Significantly, its magnetic configuration changed to
    beta-gamma-delta, which is enough energy for powerful solar flares.

    "The geomagnetic field has been quiet to unsettled so far.

    "AR3354 will be pointed directly toward Earth in the next few days,
    so it looks like the next disturbance could begin on July 1. And of
    course, a possible large flare could cause a Dellinger Effect
    throughout the whole HF spectrum."

    Pat, W5THT wrote:

    "I have been an active ham since 1956 and on the Mississippi coast
    since 1971. This year has strengthened my belief in an old
    observation.

    "There is/was a dome of high pressure that moved from over Texas to
    now over me. Before it moved east, I was able to take part in the 6
    meter propagation to Europe.

    "Since it moved over me, the DX Maps page shows a gap in the DX
    propagation from northern Florida to central Louisiana. This is not
    the first time I have seen it happen, but the new generation of TV
    weather persons presented a picture of the dome of high pressure
    that coincided with my propagation observations. Suspicions
    confirmed?

    "Years ago, on 2 meters I noticed that propagation followed weather
    fronts up the east coast. Thanks for reading this and perhaps
    someone younger than me has already done the research."

    Jon Jones, N0JK wrote:

    "Wow -- a surprise opening on 6 meter FT8 to Brazil June 25!

    "A CME impact at 1900 UTC may have boosted the TEP MUF Sunday
    afternoon. That and some help with sporadic-E -- opening to Brazil
    on 6 meters from North America during the summer.

    "Had been out with our dog. Saw WQ0P PSK flags for PY2XB. Turned on
    radio at home with dipole. PY2XB was loud. Really loud. Also copied
    PY5CC. He spotted me as well, but no QSO. PY2XB in for almost half
    an hour. Like a pipeline. Saw him work a few 5s and 0s. KC0CF worked
    CE2SV. With higher solar activity, the TEP zone still works even in
    our summer. This mode works for D2UY (Angola), 3B9FR (Rodrigues
    Island in Indian Ocean), and ZL."

    An article on Solar Cycle 25 peak and nice images:

    https://bit.ly/3ps6iOI

    Understanding Space Weather: A Glossary of Terms:

    https://bit.ly/3XuimeQ

    "Astro Bob" on that big sunspot:

    https://bit.ly/46rC3YU

    Frequent contributor David Moore shared this fascinating article
    comparing the current big sunspot with the one that launched the
    infamous Carrington Event 164 years ago.

    https://bit.ly/3CUGZYC

    Another Solar Cycle article:

    https://bit.ly/3XvIk1y

    Yet another Carrington Event article:

    https://bit.ly/3XuSe3o

    Article about Solar max:

    https://bit.ly/44jM5tP

    A Houston Chronicle article on solar max:

    https://bit.ly/445vtWf

    Flares and how they are measured:

    https://bit.ly/3prvtRs

    A video from Dr. Tamitha Skov, WX6SWW, from last week:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sfXz9nk6NDs

    Send your tips, reports, observations, questions and comments to
    k7ra@arrl.net. When reporting observations, don't forget to tell us
    which mode you were operating.

    For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation and the ARRL Technical Information
    Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals . For an
    explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere .

    Also, check this article from September, 2002 QST:

    https://www.arrl.org/files/file/Technology/tis/info/pdf/0209038.pdf

    An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation . More good
    information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/

    Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL
    bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins

    Sunspot numbers for June 22 through 28, 2023 were 176, 194, 200,
    180, 158, 141, and 141, with a mean of 170. 10.7 cm flux was 173.2,
    169.7, 160.8, 154.8, 157.7, 151.2, and 154.9, with a mean of 160.3.
    Estimated planetary A indices were 8, 9, 16, 15, 11, 8, and 8, with
    a mean of 10.7. Middle latitude A index was 8, 9, 16, 10, 11, 7, and
    8, with a mean of 9.9.
    NNNN
    /EX

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  • From ARRL@21:1/5 to All on Fri Jul 12 21:02:03 2024
    XPost: rec.radio.shortwave, rec.radio.info

    SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP026
    ARLP026 Propagation de K7RA

    ZCZC AP26
    QST de W1AW
    Propagation Forecast Bulletin 26 ARLP026
    From Tad Cook, K7RA
    Seattle, WA July 12, 2024
    To all radio amateurs

    SB PROP ARL ARLP026
    ARLP026 Propagation de K7RA

    New sunspot groups, nine in all, emerged on every day of this reporting week, July 4 to 10. One on July 4, another on July 5, two more on July 6, another each on July 7 and July 8, two more on July 9 and another on July 10.

    On July 11, two more sunspot groups emerged, and the total sunspot area expanded by 13 per cent.

    Despite the appearance of so many new sunspots, average daily sunspot number declined from 181.6 to 129, compared to the previous week. Average daily solar flux barely moved, changing from 175 to 176.6.

    Predicted solar flux for the next month is 205 on July 12 and 13, 210 on July 14 and 15, 205 on July 16 to 18, 195 on July 19 and 20, 200 on July 21 to 25, 190 on July 26, 180 on July 27 to 29, 175 on July 30, and 170 on July 31 through August 2, then
    165 on August 3 to 6, 160 on August 7 and 8, 175 on August 9, 180 on August 10 to 13, 195 on August 14 to 16, and 200 on August 17 to 21.

    Predicted planetary A index is 8, 15, 18, 12 and 8 on July 12 to 16, 5 on July 17 to 20, then 10 and 8 on July 21 and 22, then 5 on July 23 to August 3, then 12, 10, and 5 on August 4 to 6, then 12, 8 and 5 on August 7 to 9, then 12, 10 and 8 on August
    10 to 12, then 5 on August 13 to 15, and 10 and 8 on August 16 and 17 and 5 on August 18 and beyond.

    Tamitha Skov wrote in an email on Wednesday:

    We have a new big flare player rotating through the Earth-strike zone with some X-flare potential. Region 3738 has been growing rapidly over the past 24 hours, with some new spot clusters emerging right in the center of the original set. This kind of
    growth is highly magnetically unstable and is upping the noise on the day-side radio bands.

    As of earlier today, we had already popped a couple of low-level M-class flares and now are approaching the R1-radio blackout level for a noise floor. That is quick growth! I did my best to estimate the conditions for the coming week in these 5-day
    Outlooks, but in the time it has taken to generate them, the region's growth has accelerated.

    It looks like I will need to update the Solar Flare and Day side Radio Blackout Outlook in the above snapshot to something closer to a 60 per cent chance of M-Class flares and a 15 per cent chance of X-class flares. I will do this asap!

    Other than Region 3738, we do have a pocket of fast solar wind coming that could give us a decent chance of aurora at high latitudes over the early part of the weekend. This is the only solar storm possibility for now, although we could see a new Earth-
    directed solar storm launch over the next few days! I will go over this possibility and the new fireworks from Region 3738 in the upcoming forecast I am shooting now.

    Dr. Tamitha Skov has many videos of interest to our readers. You can find them here: https://www.youtube.com/c/TamithaSkov [ https://www.youtube.com/c/TamithaSkov ]

    Weekly Commentary on the Sun, the Magnetosphere, and the Earth's Ionosphere, July 11, 2024 from F. K. Janda, OK1HH.

    In early July, a sunspot group responsible for the May 10 superstorm reappeared on the southeastern limb. By the way, this superstorm caused thousands of satellites to drop in altitude, according to a research paper just accepted by the Journal of
    Spacecraft and Rockets.

    The aforementioned group was designated AR3664 at the time, in subsequent solar rotations AR3697, AR3723, is visible again, while in the same region are now AR3742, AR3743, and AR3745.

    The most active is the rapidly growing AR3768, five times the size of the Earth. Most importantly, there is a coronal hole to the north of AR3768. Between mentioned CH and AR we can expect a source of enhanced solar wind that will very likely head
    towards the Earth and cause a geomagnetic disturbance on July 13 and 14. Ionospheric shortwave propagation conditions, randomly influenced by sporadic layer E in the northern hemisphere of the Earth during the summer, affected by numerous solar flares
    will develop, but less regularly.

    Cycles 24 and 25 compared: https://bit.ly/3Y05gIM [ https://bit.ly/3Y05gIM ]

    Sunspot number calculations and the peak of the cycle: https://yhoo.it/3WjX5Wg [ https://yhoo.it/3WjX5Wg ]

    Five flares: https://bit.ly/3WlwuqT [ https://bit.ly/3WlwuqT ]

    David Moore sent this about solar convection:
    https://bit.ly/3WlQCKF [ https://bit.ly/3WlQCKF ]

    Solar max: https://bit.ly/3xK36lR [ https://bit.ly/3xK36lR ]

    New look at Maunder minima: https://bit.ly/3WgVoJh [ https://bit.ly/3WgVoJh ]

    Send your tips, reports, observations, questions and comments to k7ra@arrl.net [ mailto:k7ra@arrl.net ] . When reporting observations, don't forget to tell us which mode you were operating.

    For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation [ http://www.arrl.org/propagation ] and the ARRL Technical Information Service web page at, http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals [ http://arrl.org/
    propagation-of-rf-signals ] .

    For an explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere [ http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere ] .

    An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation [ http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation ] . More good information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/ [ http://k9la.us/ ]

    Also, check this: https://bit.ly/3Rc8Njt [ https://bit.ly/3Rc8Njt ]

    Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins [ http://arrl.org/bulletins ] .

    Sunspot numbers for July 4 through 10 2024 were 113, 111, 132, 119, 95, 143, and 190, with a mean of 129. 10.7 cm flux was 173, 165.6, 166, 171.3, 168.5, 178.2, and 213.6, with a mean of 176.6. Estimated planetary A indices were 10, 8, 3, 8, 10, 6, and 6,
    with a mean of 7.3. Middle latitude A Index was 10, 10, 4, 7, 11, 8, and 8, with a mean of 8.3.
    NNNN
    /EX

    ARRL The National Association for Amateur Radio®
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