• Weekly Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity, 23 - 29 August 202

    From SWPC.Webmaster@noaa.gov@21:1/5 to All on Mon Aug 30 13:00:19 2021
    XPost: rec.radio.amateur.space, rec.radio.shortwave, rec.radio.info

    :Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
    :Issued: 2021 Aug 30 0211 UTC
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    # Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
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    Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
    23 - 29 August 2021

    Solar activity was at moderate levels. An approximate 40 degree
    eruptive filament was observed on 23 Aug with an associated CME
    first visible in C2 LASCO imagery at 23/0648 UTC. Region 2859 (N16,
    L=11, class/area Dso/50 on 26 Aug) produced a C3.0 flare on 26/1818
    UTC. A partial HALO CME associated with this event was observed in
    LASCO C2 imagery beginning at 26/1900 UTC. This event was modeled
    and expected to impact Earth on 30 Aug. Region 2860 (S29, L=01,
    class/area Eki/340 on 28 Aug) produced an M4.7 flare at 28/0611 UTC
    along with numerous C-class events. The M4 event was accompanied by
    a 1 Normal optical flare and Type II radio emission (276 km/s). A
    partial HALO CME was observed in coronagraph imagery in association
    with this event beginning near 28/0648 UTC. This event was modeled
    with an arrival on 01 Sep.

    No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.

    The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached
    high levels on 28-29 Aug most likely due to influences from a CME
    from 23 Aug. Normal to moderate levels were observed for the
    remainder of the highlight period.

    Geomagnetic field activity reached G1-Minor storm levels on 28 Aug,
    and active levels on 27 Aug most likely due to influences from the
    23 Aug CME. Total field reached 16 nT and Bz was at a negative 10-15
    nT for several hours after CME arrival. The rest of the highlight
    period was at quiet to unsettled levels with a nominal solar wind.

    Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
    30 August - 25 September 2021

    Solar activity is expected to be at moderate levels from 30 Aug - 03
    Sep with Region 2860 rotating off the visible disk on 04 Sep.
    Moderate levels are also likely on 16-25 Sep as Region 2860 rotates
    back onto the visible disk. Very low levels are expected on 04-15
    Sep.

    No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.

    The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is
    expected to be at moderate to high levels on 30 Aug - 05 Sep due to
    CME influences. Normal to moderate levels are expected on 06-25 Sep.

    Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at G1-Minor storm
    levels on 30 Aug and 01 Sep due to influences from the CMEs from 26
    and 28 Aug, respectively. Unsettled to active levels are expected on
    02-03 Sep, 11-12 Sep, and 21 Sep all due to recurrent CH HSS
    influences. Quiet to unsettled levels are expected for the remainder
    of the outlook period.

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