• [KB6NU] Predictions call for solar cycle 25 to be big, early

    From KB6NU via rec.radio.amateur.moderat@21:1/5 to All on Thu Aug 5 14:14:52 2021
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    KB6NU's Ham Radio Blog

    Predictions call for solar cycle 25 to be big, early

    Posted: 04 Aug 2021 06:11 PM PDT http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/kb6nu/tVpu/~3/Zqpc0BcWKCc/?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=email

    A new solar cycle 25  forecast predicts that the cycle will be big, while a second predicts that it will be early.

    Southgate ARC reports:

    NASA Heliophysicists have released a revised prediction for Solar Cycle 25.
    The report generated by Ricky Egeland, a solar physicist working in the
    NASA Space Radiation Analysis Group now calls for the peak of Solar Cycle
    25 to top out at a value of 195 ± 17 based upon the new scale for
    calculating Smoothed Sun Spot Number. For reference Solar Cycle 21 peaked
    at an SSN 233 (new scale) while Solarcycle 23 peaked at an SSN of 180 (new scale). If this predictions holds up Ham Radio will see Excellent Worldwide
    F Layer Conditions on 10 Meters for several years around Solar Max. 6
    Meters conditions should be good in the Equinox Periods before and after
    Solar Max with consistent openings on Medium Haul Polar Routes. 6 Meter
    routes traversing the equator should experience consistent openings ± 9
    months from Solar Max.

    That sounds pretty good, doesnt it?

    The second report appears on SpaceWeather.Com:

    SOLAR MAX MIGHT COME A YEAR EARLY: Solar Cycle 25 is heating up faster than expected. The latest sign may be found in sunspot counts from July 2021. Continuing a trend that started last year, they overperform the official forecast:

    Issued by the NOAA/NASA Solar Cycle 25 Prediction Panel in 2019, the
    official forecast calls for Solar Cycle 25 to peak in July 2025. However, a better fit to current data shows Solar Cycle 25 peaking in October 2024.
    This is just outside the 8-month error bars of the Panels forecast.

    Predictions like these really have little practical use for amateur radio operators. We all know that propagation will get better as we get into
    Cycle 25, and theres nothing that we can do to make it better. I suppose
    that if you have been thinking of putting up some kind of directial antenna—Ive been thinking about putting up a hex beam—this information might spur you to do it sooner, rather than later. For the most part,
    though, we just have to go with the flow.

    The post Predictions call for solar cycle 25 to be big, early appeared
    first on KB6NUs Ham Radio Blog.

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