XPost: rec.radio.amateur.space, rec.radio.shortwave, rec.radio.info
:Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
:Issued: 2022 Jun 13 0505 UTC
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# Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
#
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
06 - 12 June 2022
Solar activity ranged from very low to moderate levels. Very low
levels were observed on 06-08 Jun. Low levels were observed on 09
and 11-12 Jun with the majority of the C-class flares from Regions
3029 (S17, L=204, class/area Dao/070 on 09 Jun) and 3030 (N20,
L=113, class/area Eao/180 on 11 Jun). Region 3030 was also
responsible for the moderate activity on 10 Jun due to an isolated
M1/Sf flare at 10/1054 UTC. By 12 Jun, Region 3030 had rotated into
view enough to determine it was two separate regions. The trailing
spots were reclassified as Region 3032 (N21, L=106 class/area
Dai/090 on 12 Jun). Just after the end of the period, an M3.4 flare
was observed at 13/0407 UTC along with Type II and IV radio sweeps.
The bulk of the flare activity was from Region 3032 with sympathetic
flaring noted around the same time from Region 3030. No
Earth-directed CMEs were observed, however we are waiting on further coronagraph imagery associated with the recent M3.4 flare to
determine if there is an Earth-directed component.
No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was
normal to moderate levels.
Geomagnetic field activity was at or near background levels on 06-11
Jun with solar wind below 400 km/s and total field ranging from 3-12
nT. By 12 Jun, total field increased to 12-15 nT while the solar
wind speed increased to 440-485 km/s as a weak positive polarity CH
HSS became geoeffective. The geomagnetic field responded with quiet
to unsettled levels on 06-07 Jun and 11-12 Jun while quiet
conditions were observed on 08-10 Jun.
Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
13 June - 09 July 2022
Solar activity is expected to be very low to low with a chance for
further M-class flares on 13-24 Jun due to potential flare activity
from Regions 3030 and 3032.
There is a chance for a greater than 10 MeV proton event in the next
24 hours associated with the recent M3 flare.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is
expected to reach high levels on 17-22 Jun and again on 26 Jun - 02
Jul due CH HSS influence.
Geomagnetic field activity is expected to reach unsettled levels on
13 Jun, 15-18 Jun, 23-26 Jun, 08-09 Jul with active levels on 13,16
and 24 Jun due to recurrent CH HSS activity.
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