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SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP023
ARLP023 Propagation de K7RA

ZCZC AP23
QST de W1AW
Propagation Forecast Bulletin 23 ARLP023

From Tad Cook, K7RA

Seattle, WA June 10, 2022
To all radio amateurs

SB PROP ARL ARLP023
ARLP023 Propagation de K7RA

Hard for me to believe, I had to blink to make sure, but on
Wednesday, June 8 for the first time this calendar year there were
no sunspots, even though two new sunspot regions appeared on June 4.

Average daily sunspot number declined to 44 from 52.9 last week.
Average daily solar flux was only 99.4, down from 104.3 last week
and 158.8 the week before.

News about the first spotless day can be found here:

https://bit.ly/39cOiQk

I am grateful that on Thursday, June 9, a new sunspot group emerged,
bringing the sunspot number for the day to 17.

Predicted solar flux is 105 on June 10, 110 on June 11-16, 115 on
June 17, 120 on June 18, 125 on June 19-20, 150 on June 21, 110 on
June 22, 100 on June 23 through July 3, 105 on July 4-5, 110 on July
6-10, then 115 on July 11-13, 120 on July 14, and 125 on July 15-16.

Assuming the above prediction is true, this would mean average daily
solar flux rising from 99.4 to 109 over the next reporting week and
123 the next.

Predicted planetary A index is 5 on June 10-14, then 8, 12 and 8 on
June 15-17, 5 on June 18-22, then 12, 18, 10 and 8 on June 23-26, 5
on June 27 through July 9, then 12, 8, 12, 10 and 8 on July 10-14,
and 5 on July 15-19.

Despite the recent downturn, Solar Cycle 25 activity exceeds the
official forecast:

https://helioforecast.space/solarcycle

According to Spaceweather.com, May 2022 sunspot activity was the
highest it's been in eight years.

OK1HH wrote:

"As during the last solar revolution, solar activity has been low in
the last two weeks.

"On June 8, the Sun was even empty - no sunspots - R = 0.

"This is a remarkable development more than 2 years after the
beginning of Solar Cycle 25. However, during the last few hours,
rapid spots have been observed near the central meridian. In
addition, NASA's STEREO-A spacecraft is monitoring a probable group
of sunspots approaching beyond the northeastern edge of the Sun:

"https://stereo.gsfc.nasa.gov

"It should be followed by other groups of spots, which will increase
solar activity again.

"The Earth's magnetic field was largely quiet, except for an
increase in activity on June 6.

"The result was an improvement in the propagation conditions on June
6 and a degradation on June 7 and the morning of June 8. Gradual
improvement can be expected in the coming days."

W9NY wrote:

"Just got a new dipole up on 10 meters on my condo roof which is
over 400 feet off the ground overlooking Lake Michigan.

"Made a couple of contacts late this afternoon into Texas and
Louisiana S5-S6 and nothing else on the band, until a ZL called me
from New Zealand about 6:20 PM local time. He gave me an S9, and he
was S5. Just like the good old days on 10 meters!

"The ionosphere has to be working, I think, to get over to New
Zealand."

Some observations from K7RA on 6 and 12 meters this week:

On June 4, at 1745 UTC on 6 meter FT8 I worked KB1EFS/2 in Cape
Vincent, New York.

On pskreporter.info I saw that my signal was propagating along a
very narrow arc at 72-74 degrees received only by a concentration of
stations in the northeast USA. No real 6 meter antenna here, just a
32 foot end-fed wire, 4:1 UnUn and autotuner, mostly indoors on the
second floor of my 1907 all wood Craftsman home.

Just prior to that at 1730 UTC I seemed to be monitored only by
stations 2000-2500 miles from me in an arc with bearings 77-79
degrees with WA9WTK at the south and VE3TTP at the north.

On June 9 at 2300 UTC on 12 meters FT8 I am only heard by N4DB at 91
degrees, 2292 miles and K4BSZ at 94 degrees, 2276 miles. Then at
2320 UTC, WB4EVH at 2326 miles and 103 degrees bearing, at 2330 UTC,
VK5PJ at 8306 miles, 250 degrees.

Here is an article about aurora:

https://bit.ly/398hPdM

Mostly good info, except the statement about being half way through
this Solar Cycle. I guess we might be half way toward the peak.

Here is a link about the K-index:

https://bit.ly/3xnDrLc

Here is a nice solar image, and another interesting link:

https://bit.ly/3xlrB4B

https://bit.ly/3x9WNna

Amateur Astro photographer and his image:

https://bit.ly/3NILWYo

More information here:

https://bit.ly/3QcuX2a

Here is a 3-week movie of sunspot activity:

https://bit.ly/3zqGu87

If you would like to make a comment or have a tip for our readers,
please email the author at, k7ra@arrl.net.

For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation and the ARRL Technical Information
Service web page at, http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals. For
an explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere.

An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation. More good
information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/.

Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL
bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins .

Sunspot numbers for June 2 through 8, 2022 were 59, 52, 75, 57, 45,
23, and 0, with a mean of 44.4. 10.7 cm flux was 100.9, 100.7,
100.9, 98.7, 96.4, 98.4, and 99.9, with a mean of 99.4. Estimated
planetary A indices were 5, 4, 4, 4, 10, 8, and 5, with a mean of
5.7. Middle latitude A index was 5, 4, 4, 5, 10, 11, and 5, with a
mean of 6.3.
NNNN
/EX

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SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP023
ARLP023 Propagation de K7RA

ZCZC AP23
QST de W1AW
Propagation Forecast Bulletin 23 ARLP023

From Tad Cook, K7RA

Seattle, WA June 9, 2023
To all radio amateurs

SB PROP ARL ARLP023
ARLP023 Propagation de K7RA

Solar activity was up this week, with the average daily sunspot
number increasing from 133.7 to 139, and average daily solar flux
from 155.3 to 166.8.

Average daily planetary A index stayed the same at 7.3, and average
middle latitude A index went from 7.9 to 8.6.

Predicted solar flux doesn't show any improvement, with peaks at 170
on June 23-25 and July 20-21.

The forecast shows solar flux at 168, 163, 157, 160, 157, 153, 160
and 150 on June 9-16, 155 on June 17-20, then 160 and 165 on June
21-22, 170 on June 23-25, then 168, 165 and 162 on June 26-28, 160
on June 29 through July 4, then 155, 150 and 145 on July 5-7, then
140, 135, 140, 143, 145 and 150 on July 8-13, and 155 on July 14-17.

Predicted planetary A index is 8, 5, 10 and 8 on June 9-12, 5 on
June 13-17, then 22, 15, 12 and 10 on June 18-21, 5 on June 22-26,
then 10, 12, 5 and 5 on June 27-30, then 8, 12 and 8 on July 1-3,
and 5 on July 4-7, then 10, 12 and 8 on July 8-10, and 5 on July
11-14, then 22. 15. 12 and 10 on July 15-18.

In some previous bulletins I was reporting 10 meter propagation
observed with FT8 only into Florida from my QTH in Seattle, and also
into Mexico at a similar distance.

Recently on 10 meters I am seeing propagation into VK/ZL, and in
North America mostly into Southern California, Nevada, Utah and
Arizona. Some seasonal variation, I suppose.

Weekly Commentary on the Sun, the Magnetosphere, and the Earth's
Ionosphere - June 8, 2023 from OK1HH:

"In the last seven days, solar activity has remained at a slightly
elevated level, with daily C-class flares and a few M-class flares.
This, together with the decrease in geomagnetic activity, has
resulted in a gradual increase in the daily maximum of the highest
usable frequencies of the F2 ionospheric layer. At the same time,
however, the attenuation in the lower ionospheric layers grew, which
manifested as earlier morning closures and later evening openings of
the longer shortwave bands.

"Particle clouds from CMEs during solar flares mostly did not reach
Earth - with one exception: on 7 June at 2224 UTC, the solar wind
speed jumped from 340 to 380 km/s. For a short time, the Earth's
magnetic field activity increased, usually only to K=3.

"The situation was further complicated by the sporadic-E layer,
whose season is approaching its peak.

"Inhomogeneities (non-uniformities) in the sporadic-E layer appeared
quite frequently and extended reflections were observed in the
ionograms.

"As a consequence, the scattering of electromagnetic waves was as
well manifested as attenuation. We are talking about the ionosphere
of the northern hemisphere of the Earth. Here we will wait for the
improvement when Summer ends there - which fortunately will be much
earlier than Summer ends in the troposphere."

While searching for something else, I ran across this article from
the RSGB:

http://bit.ly/45TjWuA

Mike, W9NY wrote:

"Having lived through multiple sunspot cycles since I was first
licensed in 1955, I cannot believe that 10 meters is nearly dead,
and 15 meters is minimally open. Nothing on 6 meters either.

"I discussed this with my cousin who is an astrophysicist at Oxford
who basically said, 'there are a lot of factors.' I'm just wondering
what our ham radio gurus think. I would have expected phenomenal
propagation but there is very little. Might this be related to
atomic/chemical changes in the Earth's ionosphere?"

I offered the WA4TTK Solar Data Plotting Utility as a record of
sunspot and solar flux data going back to 1989.

It can be updated weekly with a plain text file of the latest
propagation bulletin.

The data file can then be imported to any spreadsheet program for
analysis and custom graphing.

http://www.craigcentral.com/sol.asp

A new video from Dr. Tamitha Skov, WX6SWW:

https://youtu.be/-ElKuld9xW8

Send your tips, reports, observations, questions and comments to
k7ra@arrl.net. When reporting observations, don't forget to tell us
which mode you were operating.

For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation and the ARRL Technical Information
Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals . For an
explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere .

Also, check this article from September, 2002 QST:

https://www.arrl.org/files/file/Technology/tis/info/pdf/0209038.pdf

An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation . More good
information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/ .

Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL
bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins .

Sunspot numbers for June 1 through 7, 2023 were 143, 147, 112, 110,
151, 133, and 177, with a mean of 139. 10.7 cm flux was 163.9,
162.3, 164.6, 168.3, 169.2, 171.8, and 167.2, with a mean of 166.8.
Estimated planetary A indices were 13, 5, 5, 11, 5, 7, and 5, with a
mean of 7.3. Middle latitude A index was 14, 8, 5, 11, 6, 10, and 6,
with a mean of 8.6.
NNNN
/EX

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XPost: rec.radio.shortwave, rec.radio.info

SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP023
ARLP023 Propagation de K7RA

ZCZC AP23
QST de W1AW
Propagation Forecast Bulletin 23 ARLP023

From Tad Cook, K7RA

Seattle, WA June 21, 2024
To all radio amateurs

SB PROP ARL ARLP023
ARLP023 Propagation de K7RA

Sunspot numbers rose this week, with the average changing from 139.4 to 149.6, but average daily solar flux only shifted from 179.2 to 178.

Only four sunspot groups emerged this week. There was one on June 15 and three on June 19.

Average daily planetary A index only changed from 11.6 to 10.3.

Predicted solar flux is 205 and 210 on June 21-22, then 200 June 23-27, then 190, 185, and 190, on June 28-30, then 190, 195, 190, 185 and 190 on July 1-5, 180 on July 6-7, 165 on July 8-9, 180 on July 10, then 170 on July 11-13, 175 on July 14, 180 on
July 15-17, 175 on July 18-19, 190 on July 20-21, then 180, 175, 180, 190, 180, 185 and 190 on July 22-28.

Predicted planetary A index is 10, 12 and 10 on June 21-23, then 5 on June 24-29, 8 on Jun 30 to July 1, then 5 on July 2-14, then 12, 8, 8, and 5 on July 15-18, 8 on July 19-20, and 5 on July 21-26, then 8 on July 27-28.

Weekly Commentary on the Sun, the Magnetosphere, and the Earth's Ionosphere - June 20, 2024, from OK1HH.

F.K. Janda is going on vacation and will not have a report for us over the next few weeks.

"Watching the Sun at its current 11-year peak of activity is certainly not boring. On the contrary, we are experiencing quite frequent surprises. For example, a week ago we observed an increased attenuation of radio waves in the polar region (PCA = POLAR
CAP
ABSORPTION EVENT), caused by protons coming from the far side of the Sun. Then, on 15 June (at 1157 UTC), a cloud of particles unexpectedly hit the Earth, triggering a weak G1 class geomagnetic storm.

"Over the next few days, AR3712 became larger, followed by AR3713 and AR3716. All three of these large sunspot groups are already located in the western half of the solar disk, where particles from a possible larger flare are more likely to hit Earth. In
addition,
all three regions have an unstable magnetic field and are therefore more likely to have M- or X-class flares.

"Of the largest sunspot groups observed this cycle, two will soon reappear on the eastern limb of the solar disk (in May they were designated AR3663 and AR3664). The first of these will begin to emerge on the solar disk this weekend. The second, and then
largest group, will follow a few days after that. Fortunately, solar activity will remain high, but unfortunately, changes in propagation conditions will be harder to predict."

From the European Space Agency:

https://bit.ly/3VQt54j [ https://bit.ly/3VQt54j ]

AR3712 and flares:
https://bit.ly/3xiIGAa [ https://bit.ly/3VQt54j ]

Reverse magnetic field: https://gigazine.net/gsc_news/en/20240617-sun-magnetic-field-flip/ [ https://gigazine.net/gsc_news/en/20240617-sun-magnetic-field-flip/ ]

This video about the Sun's corona is undated: https://www.dailymotion.com/video/x90o8gw [ https://www.dailymotion.com/video/x90o8gw ]

Polar cap absorption event:
https://bit.ly/3REcY7b [ https://bit.ly/3REcY7b ]
https://bit.ly/3REhuTb [ https://bit.ly/3REhuTb ]

Latest videos from Dr. Tamitha Skov, WX6SWW:
https://youtu.be/J3XdqnWYNh4 [ https://youtu.be/J3XdqnWYNh4 ] https://youtu.be/tzfvKObBf_w [ https://youtu.be/tzfvKObBf_w ]

This weekend is ARRL Field Day, and the forecast looks good, with high solar flux at 200 and 190.

Send your tips, reports, observations, questions, and comments to k7ra@arrl.net [ mailto:k7ra@arrl.net ] . When reporting observations, don't forget to tell us which mode you were operating.

For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see www.arrl.org/propagation [ http://www.arrl.org/propagation ] and the ARRL Technical Information Service web page at, www.arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals [ http://arrl.org/propagation-of-
rf-signals ] . For an explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see www.arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere [ http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere ] .

An archive of past propagation bulletins is at www.arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation [ http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation ] . More good information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us [ http://k9la.us ] .

Also, check this QST article on Solar Indices:
https://bit.ly/3Rc8Njt [ https://bit.ly/3Rc8Njt ]

Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL bulletins are at www.arrl.org/bulletins [ http://www.arrl.org/bulletins ] .

Sunspot numbers for June 13 through 19 2024 were 142, 117, 134, 152, 171, 150, and 181, with a mean of 149.6. 10.7 cm flux was 170.1, 169, 170.7, 167.3, 179.9, 192.7, and 196, with a mean of 178. Estimated planetary A indices were 4, 6, 19, 13, 11, 10,
and 9, with a mean of 10.3. Middle latitude A index was 5, 8, 18, 9, 11, 11, and 9, with a mean of 10.1.
NNNN
/EX

ARRL The National Association for Amateur Radio®
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