• ARLP022 Propagation de K7RA

    From ARRL Web site@21:1/5 to All on Fri Jun 3 19:04:54 2022
    XPost: rec.radio.shortwave, rec.radio.info

    SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP022
    ARLP022 Propagation de K7RA

    ZCZC AP22
    QST de W1AW
    Propagation Forecast Bulletin 22 ARLP022
    From Tad Cook, K7RA
    Seattle, WA June 3, 2022
    To all radio amateurs

    SB PROP ARL ARLP022
    ARLP022 Propagation de K7RA

    At 2335 UTC on June 2, the Australian Space Forecast Centre issued a geomagnetic warning.

    "A solar filament recently erupted from the southwest quadrant of
    the solar disk. Event modeling suggests a minor impact to the
    Earth's magnetosphere on late 05 June to early 06 June."

    All our measures of solar activity declined in a big way from the
    last reporting week to the current period, May 26 through June 1.

    Average daily sunspot number plummeted from 124.7 to 52.9, and
    average daily 10.7 cm solar flux receded from 158.8 to 104.3. These
    are dramatic shifts, although well within expected variations at
    this point in solar cycle 25.

    Predicted solar flux for the next month is 100 on June 3 to 5, 98 on
    June 6, 95 on June 7 and 8, then 90, 130, 135, and 140 on June 9 to
    12, then 145, 150 and 145 on June 13 to 15, 140 on June 16 to 18,
    then 130, 125, 120 and 110 on June 19 to 22, 100 on June 23 to 29,
    98 on June 30 through July 3, then 110, 112, 125, 130, 135, and 140
    on July 4 to 9.

    Predicted planetary A index is 5 on June 3 and 4, 15 and 12 on June
    5 and 6, 5 on June 7 to 9, 8 and 12 on June 10 and 11, 14 on June 12
    and 13, then 8 and 12 on June 14 and 15, 14 on June 16 and 17, 12 on
    June 18, 5 on June 19 to 22, then 16, 22, 12, 10 and 8 on June 23 to
    27, and 5 on June 28 to July 6, then 8 and 12 on July 7 and 8, and
    14 on July 9 and 10.

    OK1HH wrote:

    "Last weekly commentary mentioned the possibility that the current
    25th solar cycle could resemble the nineteenth, which peaked in
    1958. However, it should be recalled that this was before the
    beginning of the satellite era, so compared to cycles 20 to 24 in
    fact, we know very little and comparison is difficult. Today's
    predictions of solar activity, without satellite measurements and
    observations, cannot even be imagined. The possibility of reaching
    such a high maximum as we experienced in 1958 applies under the
    conditions 'if the growth of activity continues with the current
    speed' and it is not the only condition.

    After large active areas sank a week ago, solar activity dropped
    significantly. No major eruptions were observed.

    The surprise was the G1-class geomagnetic storm on May 27th, related
    to the solar flare on the evening of May 25th. According to most
    predictions, the CME should have missed the Earth. In the shortwave propagation, we recorded an afternoon improvement on the 27th,
    followed by a significant degradation in the following days.

    The second surprise was the occurrence of reversed magnetic polarity
    sunspot (AR3027) on June 1st. We commonly encounter this phenomenon
    around the minimum of the eleven-year cycle, later only
    exceptionally.

    The return of higher solar activity can be expected as early as next
    week. A more significant improvement in shortwave propagation awaits
    us around mid-June."

    Thanks to David Moore, about how the current cycle progress is not
    exceptional, and definitely not another Cycle 19.

    https://bit.ly/3M7YOFS

    Interesting.

    https://www.sidc.be/silso/predikfcm

    https://www.sidc.be/silso/ssngraphics

    N0JK wrote on May 31:

    "There was great propagation to South America from the Midwest for
    the CQ WPX CW contest last weekend. Both Saturday and Sunday 10
    meters was open to Argentina, Brazil, Uruguay and other countries. I
    operated 'fixed mobile' with 10 watts and a quarter wave whip. Made
    16 contacts.

    I suspect the higher solar flux from Solar Cycle 25 picking up
    helped with TEP ionization. And sporadic-E set up links to TEP."

    KA3JAW reports:

    "On Wednesday, June 1, 2022, between 1819 and 1833 UTC I received
    WM2XEJ in EM83 calling CQ using FT8 on the experimental 8-meter (40
    MHz) band via short-haul sporadic-E. Distance 670 miles, azimuth 220
    deg.

    The 8-meter experimental band is within the worldwide Industrial-Scientific-Medical (ISM) segment between 40.660 to 40.700
    MHz with a 40 kHz bandwidth, center frequency on 40.680.

    WM2XEJ is an FCC Part 5 Experimental Radio Service station operated
    by Tom Mills, WB4JWM in Eatonton, Georgia.

    Tom is authorized to operate at 400 watts ERP using CW, SSB, FT4,
    FT8, WSPR, and Q65.

    Tom uses an Icom IC-9100 rig into a vertical loop antenna at 300
    watts ERP.

    This was the second time I received WM2XEJ via sporadic-E. The first
    time was on Saturday, April 30, 2022, between 1607 and 1632 UTC.

    Here is an update to the 8-meter experimental band which happened
    today, Thursday, June 2, 2022.

    Sporadic-E started at 1521 til 1917 UTC.

    1521 to 1917 UTC WM2XEJ EM83 3RD time received via FT8, 670 miles,
    azimuth 220 deg.

    1704 to 1718 UTC WM2XAN EN74 1ST time received via FT8, 547 miles,
    azimuth 298 deg."

    More on 8 meter experimental stations:

    https://bit.ly/3tcsPhb

    Nice images:

    https://bit.ly/3NQ6LRs

    Correction: In last week's bulletin change IL4LZH to Gianluca
    Mazzini's actual call sign, IK4LZH.

    Another important and timely report from Dr. Tamitha Mulligan Skov,
    WX6SWW.

    https://youtu.be/JggsnMpwnrA

    Check out her recently updated listing at QRZ.com.

    For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation and the ARRL Technical Information
    Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals. For an
    explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere.

    An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation. More good
    information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/.

    Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL
    bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins .

    Sunspot numbers for May 26 through June 1, 2022 were 87, 69, 34, 42,
    40, 39, and 59, with a mean of 52.9. 10.7 cm flux was 122.7, 113.6,
    101.8, 98.4, 100.6, 98, and 104.2, with a mean of 104.3. Estimated
    planetary A indices were 4, 17, 24, 15, 9, 9, and 6, with a mean of
    12. Middle latitude A index was 6, 14, 19, 14, 8, 8, and 8, with a
    mean of 11.
    NNNN
    /EX

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  • From ARRL Web site@21:1/5 to All on Fri Jun 2 14:16:45 2023
    XPost: rec.radio.shortwave, rec.radio.info

    SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP022
    ARLP022 Propagation de K7RA

    ZCZC AP22
    QST de W1AW
    Propagation Forecast Bulletin 22 ARLP022
    From Tad Cook, K7RA
    Seattle, WA June 2, 2023
    To all radio amateurs

    SB PROP ARL ARLP022
    ARLP022 Propagation de K7RA

    Average daily solar flux values dropped over the past week, but
    sunspot numbers were nearly the same, comparing May 25 to 31 to the
    previous week.

    Average daily solar flux declined from 161.2 to 155.3. Geomagnetic
    indicators were quieter, with average daily planetary A index
    declining from 17.1 to 7.3, and middle latitude numbers from 14.4 to
    7.9.

    Predicted solar flux is 160 on June 2, 155 on June 3-4, 150 on June
    5-8, 130 on June 9-11, then 135, 140, 143, 145, and 150 on June
    12-16, 155 on June 17-20, 150 on June 21-25, then 145, 140 and 135
    on June 26-28 and 130 on June 29 to July 8.

    Predicted planetary A index is 15, 12, 10 and 8 on June 2-5, 5 on
    June 6-17, then 22, 15, 12 and 10 on June 18-21, 5 on June 22-24, 12
    and 10 on June 25-26, then 5 on June 27-28, then 15, 12, 15, 10 and
    8 on June 29 through July 3, then 5 on July 4 through the middle of
    the month.

    Weekly Commentary on the Sun, the Magnetosphere, and the Earth's
    Ionosphere - June 1, 2023 from OK1HH.

    "The Sun still surprises us, it has been in the habit for billions
    of years, but we only observe it for a few hundred years. So, we
    have a right to be surprised by what it is doing and what we can
    observe with instruments on satellites and powerful solar telescopes
    on Earth, including the largest four-metre one on the island of Maui
    in Hawaii, which can see the very fine structures of sunspot nuclei.

    "What's more, we're seeing spots on the far side of the Sun that are
    so big, they affect the vibration of the whole Sun. But we can only
    see their structure and predict possible flares after they appear on
    the eastern limb of the solar disk, which was not at all the case
    with the current most active AR3315, which did not appear there. It
    emerged later, thereafter began to grow rapidly.

    "Conversely, the source of the next big flare was hidden behind the southeastern limb, and we only saw the prominence above it.

    "Meanwhile, the larger groups of sunspots have mostly moved to the
    western half of the solar disk. A large coronal hole in the southern
    hemisphere now crosses the central meridian. This increases the
    likelihood of geomagnetic disturbances starting on June 2."

    Mike, AK7ML wrote:

    "I recall in a movie about Pearl Harbor that they could not reach
    Hawaii from stateside on HF and then they sent the message by cable
    telegraph in routine status, so Pearl was not informed of the attack
    in time.

    "For years I have been able to work Australia in the morning and now
    it is Indonesia that is workable instead!"

    A story about a big sunspot:

    https://www.fox9.com/news/giant-sunspot-ar3310-visible-earth

    I've added information from this resource to the text appearing at
    the bottom of every propagation forecast bulletin (this resource
    comes from September 2002 QST):

    https://www.arrl.org/files/file/Technology/tis/info/pdf/0209038.pdf

    I was sad to learn that old friend Chip Margelli, K7JA became a
    Silent Key on May 25. Chip was from the Seattle area, and first came
    to my attention when he became proficient in the Japanese language
    during high school, then specialized in running JA stations at the
    old Rush Drake, W7RM contest station on Foulweather Bluff in Puget
    Sound. At one time he may have been the most famous American ham in
    Japan, or so I heard at the time.

    Send your tips, reports, observations, questions, and comments to k7ra@arrl.net. When reporting observations, don't forget to tell us
    which mode you were operating.

    For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation and the ARRL Technical Information
    Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals . For an
    explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere .

    An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation . More good
    information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/ .

    Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL
    bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins .

    Sunspot numbers for May 25 through 31, 2023 were 121, 127, 125, 119,
    153, 144, and 147, with a mean of 133.7. 10.7 cm flux was 152.1,
    149, 156.9, 151.3, 154.4, 162, and 161.4, with a mean of 155.3.
    Estimated planetary A indices were 11, 6, 4, 11, 4, 5, and 10, with
    a mean of 7.3. Middle latitude A index was 11, 6, 5, 11, 5, 6, and
    11, with a mean of 7.9.
    NNNN
    /EX

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  • From ARRL@21:1/5 to All on Fri Jun 14 16:32:34 2024
    XPost: rec.radio.shortwave, rec.radio.info

    SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP022
    ARLP022 Propagation de K7RA

    ZCZC AP22
    QST de W1AW
    Propagation Forecast Bulletin 22 ARLP022
    From Tad Cook, K7RA
    Seattle, WA June 14, 2024
    To all radio amateurs

    SB PROP ARL ARLP022
    ARLP022 Propagation de K7RA

    "ASWFC GEOMAGNETIC DISTURBANCE WARNING ISSUED AT 0650 UTC/14 JUNE 2024 BY THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE.

    "A weak halo CME may impact Earth either on late UTC day 15-Jun or else early UTC day 16-Jun.

    "INCREASED GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY EXPECTED DUE TO CORONAL MASS EJECTION FROM 15-16 JUNE 2024"

    Solar activity was lower over the past reporting week, June 6-12.

    Ten new sunspot groups emerged, two on June 6, one on June 7, two on June 9, and five on June 12.

    Average daily sunspot number dropped from 44 points from 183.4 to 139.4, and average daily solar flux from 184.8 to 179.2.

    Average daily planetary A index went from 8 to 11.6, and middle latitude numbers from 9.4 to 11.1.

    The most active day geomagnetically was June 7, when the planetary A index was 28. Alaska's College A index was 38. This was an unexpected G2 geomagnetic storm that commenced at 1130 UTC.

    Spaceweather.com [ http://www.Spaceweather.com ] reports a polar cap absorption event on June 12-13. Protons from the Sun are raining down on Earth, and it is causing shortwave blackouts. You can monitor it here:

    https://bit.ly/3Vpopko [ https://bit.ly/3Vpopko ]

    Predicted solar flux shows a peak at 205 on June 26-29 and again on July 23-26.

    The forecast shows flux at 170 on June 14, 175 on June 15-17, then 180 on June 18-20, then 185, 190 and 195 on June 21-23, 200 on June 24-25, 205 on June 26-29, then 200, 190, 180, 175, 170, 165, 160 and 175 on June 30 through July 7, then 170 on July 8-
    9, 165 on July 10-11, 155 on July 12-13, then 165 and 175 on July 14-15, 185 on July 16-18, then 190, 195 and 200 on July 19-21.

    Predicted planetary A index is 5, 12 and 15 on June 14-16, then 8 on June 17-18, then 5 on June 19-21, then 8 on Jun 22-23, then 5 on June 24-29, 8 on June 30 and July 1, and 5 on July 2-6, then 8 on July 7, 5 on July 8-15, then 8, 8, 5, 8 and 8 on July
    on July 16-20.

    "Weekly Commentary on the Sun, the Magnetosphere, and the Earth's Ionosphere - June 13, 2024, from OK1HH.

    "Despite the fact that the large sunspot group responsible for the geomagnetic disturbances and the beautiful auroras of May 10-11 is now on the far side of the Sun, its flares are showering the Earth's
    surroundings with a rain of protons. On the whole, however, there is no doubt that after its reappearance at the eastern edge of the solar disk, solar activity will again increase significantly, with
    solar flux values exceeding 200 in late June and early July.

    "For now, we will be content with the consequences of a slight decrease in overall solar activity, although moderate solar flares are no exception. Upswells in geomagnetic activity occur only occasionally and most days are quiet to unsettled. Summer
    prevails
    in the Earth's northern hemisphere, and sporadic-E layer events contribute even more than solar events to the erratic shortwave propagation conditions here.

    "With the exception of the two largest active regions, however, there is little going on at present on the far side of the Sun, and so July already seems to be considerably quieter than May and June were."

    Radiation risks for Mars astronauts:
    https://bit.ly/4b272M7 [ https://bit.ly/4b272M7 ]

    Viewing sunspots from Mars:
    https://go.nasa.gov/3RsTP87 [ https://go.nasa.gov/3RsTP87 ]

    May solar images from various online sources:
    https://bit.ly/45lmVvS [ https://bit.ly/45lmVvS ]
    https://bit.ly/3VFwCCb [ https://bit.ly/3VFwCCb ] https://www.space.com/sun-solar-storm-may-10-timelapse [ https://www.space.com/sun-solar-storm-may-10-timelapse ]
    https://bigthink.com/hard-science/sun-activity-2024/ [ https://bigthink.com/hard-science/sun-activity-2024/ ]

    Next weekend is ARRL Field Day, June 22-23. Solar flux and sunspot numbers should be rising at that time, and predicted planetary A index is a moderate 8.

    There will be an updated forecast in next week's bulletin.

    Send your tips, reports, observations, questions and comments to k7ra@arrl.net [ mailto:k7ra@arrl.net ] . When reporting observations, don't forget to tell us which mode you were operating.

    For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation [ http://www.arrl.org/propagation ] and the ARRL Technical Information Service web page at, http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals [ http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals ] . For an explanation of numbers used in
    this bulletin, see
    http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere [ http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere ] .

    An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation [ http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation ] . More good information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/ [ http://k9la.us/ ] .

    Also, check this QST article about Solar Indices:
    https://bit.ly/3Rc8Njt [ https://bit.ly/3Rc8Njt ]

    Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins [ http://arrl.org/bulletins ] .

    Sunspot numbers for June 6 through 12 2024 were 149, 150, 143, 148, 146, 95, and 145, with a mean of 139.4. 10.7 cm flux was 190.9, 184.4, 190.4, 180.9, 177.8, 164.9, and 164.9, with a mean of 179.2.
    Estimated planetary A indices were 6, 28, 14, 5, 11, 12, and 5, with a mean of 11.6. Middle latitude A index was 7, 20, 15, 6, 11, 13, and 6, with a mean of 11.1.
    NNNN
    /EX

    ARRL The National Association for Amateur Radio®
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