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SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP020
ARLP020 Propagation de K7RA

ZCZC AP20
QST de W1AW
Propagation Forecast Bulletin 20 ARLP020

From Tad Cook, K7RA

Seattle, WA May 20, 2022
To all radio amateurs

SB PROP ARL ARLP020
ARLP020 Propagation de K7RA

Solar activity was up, up, up this week, with average daily sunspot
numbers increasing from 74.4 to 134.1, and average daily solar flux
from 120.3 to 157.3.

To get some perspective, I averaged the weekly averages for sunspot
number and solar flux from this bulletin and the previous three,
then compared them to the bulletins from one year earlier.

A year ago, the averages for 2021 Propagation Forecast Bulletins
ARLP017 through ARLP020 were 28.9 for sunspot numbers and 75.9 for
solar flux. A year later, the averages are 96.6 for sunspot numbers
and 138.4 for solar flux.

This documents a substantial increase in solar activity and is
another illustration of how this cycle is progressing faster than
the official cycle prediction by the experts.

Geomagnetic indicators were higher this week. Average daily
planetary A index went from 5 to 9, while middle latitude A index
increased from 4.6 to 9.6, compared to the previous reporting
period, which always runs from Thursday through the following
Wednesday.

Spaceweather.com reported on Wednesday that big sunspot AR3014
doubled in size, and presented this movie from NASA, showing 24
hours of activity:

https://bit.ly/3G1m2ff

On Thursday, Spaceweather.com presented this movie of a massive jet
of plasma projecting from our Sun's southwestern limb:

https://bit.ly/3sOEdQe

Predicted solar flux in Thursday's prediction begins about 8 points
lower than the Wednesday forecast, at 172 on May 20, 170 on May
21-24, then a decline from 168, 166, 150, 136, and 138 on May 25-29,
then the predicted values revert back to the Wednesday forecast at
140 on May 30-31, 143 on June 1-3, 140 and 136 on June 4-5, 138 on
June 6-7, then 140 and 150 on June 8-9, 154 on June 10-12, 152 on
June 13-14, then 150 and 148 on June 15-16, 140 on June 17-18, 145
on June 19, 142 on June 20-21, then 138 on June 22 and 136 on June
23-24.

Predicted planetary A index is 12 on May 20, 8 on May 21-22, 5 on
May 23-26, 15 and 8 on May 27-28, 5 on May 29 through June 9, 8 on
June 10, 14 on June 11-12, 8 and 5 on June 13-14, 8 on June 15-16, 5
on June 17-19, 18 on June 20, then 15 on June 21-23, 8 on June 24,
and 5 for at least the following ten days.

The above predictions are from Housseal and Levine of the 557th USAF
Weather wing.

The Sun busts out a trio of flares:

https://bit.ly/3yOhNlF

OK1HH wrote:

"In the last seven days, solar activity has risen monotonously."

(I thought F.K. Janda's use of the word "monotonously" must be a mistranslation, but now I am not so sure. I thought perhaps he meant "monstrously." -K7RA)

"Moderate flares have been observed almost daily. Highest level
X-rays belonged to an X1.5 class eruption, start 1350 UTC, peak 1355
UTC, end time 1359 UTC on May 10th from NOAA AR 3006 in the
southwest quadrant, classified as magnetic type beta-gamma-delta.

"During the daytime, moderate flares often caused a Short-Wave
Fadeout. AR 3007 and AR 3014 also evolved into the beta-gamma-delta
magnetic configuration.

"No fibrous eruption was observed in any of the fibers on the solar
disc. Observed coronal holes were relatively small, for this reason
too, the geomagnetic activity was mostly low. The expected arrival
of a CME, related to the flares of classes X1.5 and C4.7 on 10 May
did not arrive on Earth.

"The decrease in geomagnetic activity together with the increase in
the intensity of solar X-rays contributed to the fact that the
critical frequencies of the ionospheric layer F2 were above average,
increased further since 15 May."

"Here is the Solar activity forecast for the period May 20-26, 2022:

"Activity level: mostly moderate
X-ray background flux (1.0-8.0 A): in the range C1.4-C2.6
Radio flux (10.7 cm): a fluctuation in the range 145-195
Events: class C (1-10/day), class M (1-8/period), class X
(0-3/period), proton (0-1/period)
Relative sunspot number (Ri): in the range 140-230

"Jana Hrabalova, RWC Prague Astronomical Institute."

"Geomagnetic activity forecast for the period May 20-26, 2022:

"Quiet: May 21-23
Unsettled: May 19-20, 24-26
Active: May 19, 24
Minor storm: possible May 24
Major storm: 0
Severe storm: 0

"Geomagnetic activity summary:

"Today (Thursday, May 19), unsettled to active conditions are
expected. On Friday, May 20, we expect at most unsettled conditions
until Saturday, May 21. From this day to Tuesday, May 24, quiet to
unsettled conditions are expected.

"About Tuesday, May 24, and Wednesday, May 25, the return of the
unsettled conditions may be accompanied by a further active event."

"Tomas Bayer, RWC Prague, Institute of Geophysics, Department of
Geomagnetism, Budkov observatory."

KB1AWM wrote on Sunday, May 15:

"Had a nice short opening to VK6OZ on 12m from Charleston, SC at
0330 UTC tonight. The mode was FT8. What was most amazing was given
that late night propagation is usually not conducive to 12m, I
switched on the amp and received a +17 dB signal report. If you take
out the 7 dB from the amp, that still leaves +10 dB barefoot. I'm
enjoying these 10 and 12 meter openings!"

I replied: "I've been seeing interesting stuff on 12 meters as well.
Frequently during the day on FT8 I will see my signal from here in
Seattle on pskreporter ONLY being received in Florida. Weird!"

On Tuesday, May 17 on 12 meter FT8 starting at 2130 UTC I was only
heard by CX6VM in Uruguay (6,945 miles), WH6S on Kauai (2,723 miles)
and 3D2EZ Fiji (5,834 miles).

This persisted until 2145 UTC when I was heard by WQ6Q in California
(713 miles).

On Thursday, May 19 I used FT8 to observe propagation on 10 meters
using pskreporter.info from 1530-1600 UTC. Local sunrise was 1231
UTC. During that half hour I was receiving no signals at all, but my
low power signal was being received by many stations, only in the
Western United States, all between 700-1200 miles away, with one odd
exception, a mysterious WLO in EM50vo, 2149 miles from me in
Alabama.

WLO turned out to be the callsign of an old Coastal Maritime station
in Mobile, Alabama. This doesn't mean that they are on the 10 meter
band with that callsign, but instead have a receiver monitoring the
band and forwarding received info via WSJT-X.

Check out this web site:

https://www.radiomarine.org/historic-coast-stations/wlo-mobile

Interesting web site - the Solar Influences Data Center:

https://www.sidc.be/LatestSWData/LatestSWData.php

The Solar Terrestrial Centre of Excellence:

https://www.stce.be/news/591/welcome.html

Here is a site that talks about 17 flares:

https://bit.ly/3NtPaP8

Here is an article titled "Solar flares: What are they and how do
they affect Earth?" with nice graphics:

https://bit.ly/3G2jgGF

If you would like to make a comment or have a tip for our readers,
please email the author at, k7ra@arrl.net.

For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation and the ARRL Technical Information
Service web page at, http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals. For
an explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere.

An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation. More good
information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/.

Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL
bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins .

Sunspot numbers for May 12 through 18, 2022 were 112, 120, 105, 129,
173, 153, and 147, with a mean of 134.1. 10.7 cm flux was 133,
149.5, 152.7, 153.6, 161.7, 170.8, and 179.9, with a mean of 157.3.
Estimated planetary A indices were 8, 7, 7, 12, 10, 12, and 7, with
a mean of 9. Middle latitude A index was 8, 7, 9, 10, 11, 15, and 7,
with a mean of 9.6.
NNNN
/EX

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SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP020
ARLP020 Propagation de K7RA

ZCZC AP20
QST de W1AW
Propagation Forecast Bulletin 20 ARLP020

From Tad Cook, K7RA

Seattle, WA May 19, 2023
To all radio amateurs

SB PROP ARL ARLP020
ARLP020 Propagation de K7RA

This reporting week, May 11-17, average daily sunspot number was
nearly the same as last week, 118.6 compared to 119.3, only
marginally lower.

But average daily solar flux dropped from 167.8 to 143.2.

Geomagnetic indicators were quieter, both planetary and middle
latitude A index at 9.6. Last week the two numbers were 15.1 and
11.9, respectively.

What is the outlook for the next few weeks?

10.7 cm solar flux is forecast to have a peak of 165 on June 8.

The predicted numbers are 145 on May 19, 140 on May 20-21, 135 on
May 22-24, 140 on May 25-26, 145 on May 27, 155 on May 28-30, 160 on
May 31 and June 1, 155 on June 2-3, 160 on June 4-7, then 165, 160,
150, 145, and 150 on June 8-12, then 155 on June 13-17, 150 on June
18, 145 on June 19-21, 140 and 145 on June 22-23, and 155 on June
24-26 then 160 on June 27-28.

Predicted planetary A index is 5, 8, 12, 15 and 5 on May 19-23, 12
on May 24-25, 15 on May 26, 10 on May 27-28, 8 on May 29, 5 on May
30 through June 1, then 16, 12, 16 and 12 on June 2-5, 8 on June
6-8, then 5 on June 9-18, 12 and 20 on June 19-20, 15 on June 21-22,
10 on June 23-24, 8 on June 25, and 5 on June 26-28.

These numbers are updated daily here:

https://services.swpc.noaa.gov/text/45-day-ap-forecast.txt

Thanks to reader David Moore for this:

"How 1,000 undergraduates helped solve an enduring mystery about the
Sun:

"https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2023/05/230509122026.htm

"For three years at the height of the COVID-19 pandemic, a group of
students spent an estimated 56,000 hours analyzing the behavior of
hundreds of solar flares. Their results could help astrophysicists
understand how the Sun's corona reaches temperatures of millions of
degrees Fahrenheit."

Weekly Commentary on the Sun, the Magnetosphere, and the Earth's
Ionosphere - May 18, 2023, from F.K. Janda, OK1HH.

"On May 12, we expected a CME impact from the flare on the evening
of May 9. It was indeed registered - at 0635 UTC the geomagnetic
storm began. However, it was weaker than expected, of G1 class.

"On 13 May at 1915 UTC, an unexpected CME impact followed for a
change, which again triggered another G1 class geomagnetic storm.

"On 16 May, we expected another smaller CME. The particle cloud has
been slowly approaching Earth since the magnetic filament eruption
in the southern hemisphere of the Sun on 12 May.

"The next solar flare on May 16, with a maximum at 1643 UTC, was
M9.6 class. It came from a sunspot group still hiding behind the
southeastern limb of the Sun. In fact, it may have been an X flare,
partially obscured by the solar horizon. Yet it caused the strong
Dellinger effect (shortwave fade) over North America. After the
sunspot group came out on the solar disk, we could observe it as AR
3310. It's about three times wider than Earth, and its magnetic
configuration promises more flares.

"Not only was solar flare activity quite high, but the Sun was
hurling so many CMEs into space that hardly a day went by without
one hitting Earth. Therefore, the frequency of geomagnetic storms
was also higher, followed by frequent deterioration of shortwave
propagation conditions. In summary, the 25th solar cycle continues
to evolve nicely."

Frank, VO1HP sent this from St. Johns, Newfoundland:

"On May 12 1957-2113 UTC, there was a strong 6M Es opening into mid
South America. Logged 20 stations using FT8. No CW or SSB heard.
Stations worked at VO1HP remote station: LU3CQ, CE3SX, 2SV, LI7DUE,
9AEA, 9DO, 1FAM, 8EX, CX3VB, PP5BK, LU2DPW, CX1VH, PU3AMB, CX6VM,
LU3FAP, XQ3SK, XQ3MCC, CE3VRT, 3SOC, and LU5FF.

"Antenna 4el Yagi at 35ft overlooking ocean. K3 + PR6, KPA500
KAT500. Other VO1s seen: VO1CH, VO1SIX, and VO1AW."

On April 24, Rocky Riggs, W6RJK in Truckee, California wrote:

"I was not very active until recently when I was introduced to POTA.
The park I frequent the most would typically give me 40-60 contacts
in a 2 hour period.

"On Monday, April 24th, I went to the same park, and in 30+ minutes
had no contacts and couldn't hear anyone either. I later found out
that the solar storm was causing most of our radio problems. Until
then, I had never considered much about solar flares, or how the Sun
influences radio propagation. Now, finally, I'm trying to learn as
much as I can. The K7RA Solar Update in the ARRL Newsletter is
FANTASTIC and will be my source going forward to help me learn and
understand.

"Here's my question. Is there a 'real time' place where I can go to
determine if a particular band has good propagation (I typically use
20m and 40m)?

"You know, like before I go out and get all set up and it's a 'goose
egg.'"

As I first reported in Propagation Forecast Bulletin ARLP017, I told
him that a very useful tool (to use) is to check real time
geomagnetic indices with this:

https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/planetary-k-index

Nice quiet conditions show a planetary A index at 1 or 2, unsettled
conditions at 3, then above 3 conditions are disturbed. The scale is logarithmic, so each point in either direction is important.

Another approach is to use pskreporter at https://www.pskreporter.info/pskmap.html which is handy if you live
in a grid square that has many active hams, or a nearby grid that is
more populated.

You can check FT8 activity on any band. There is also a "Country of
Callsign" selection so you can check activity across your nation of
choice. Recently when I have raised nobody on 10 meter FT8 this
option showed no activity here in the Pacific Northwest but plenty
of 10 meter activity in the southeast United States.

Here is a new video from Dr. Tamitha Skov, WX6SWW:

https://youtu.be/xSQYjH6D_YA

NASA sunspot picture:

https://bit.ly/458DrPw

A video of a recent eruption:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Rm7M5pqjCgY

Here are articles about Radio Blackout:

https://bit.ly/434c5bw

https://bit.ly/3pWId2e

https://bit.ly/45hXTxh

https://bit.ly/3MEkCwa

NASA warning of a Solar Storm threat:

https://bit.ly/3pSK4p2

Send your tips, reports, observations, questions and comments to
k7ra@arrl.net. When reporting observations, don't forget to tell us
which mode you were operating.

For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation and the ARRL Technical Information
Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals . For an
explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere .

An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation . More good
information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/ .

Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL
bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins .

Sunspot numbers for May 11 through 17, 2023 were 152, 134, 120, 109,
103, 106, and 106, with a mean of 118.6. 10.7 cm flux was 163.4,
149.1, 143.8, 139.7, 134.5, 134.3, and 137.9, with a mean of 143.2.
Estimated planetary A indices were 9, 19, 13, 8, 6, 8, and 4, with a
mean of 9.6. Middle latitude A index was 10, 15, 12, 9, 6, 10, and
5, with a mean of 9.6.
NNNN
/EX

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XPost: rec.radio.shortwave, rec.radio.info

SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP020
ARLP020 Propagation de K7RA

ZCZC AP20
QST de W1AW
Propagation Forecast Bulletin 20 ARLP020

From Tad Cook, K7RA

Seattle, WA May 31, 2024
To all radio amateurs

SB PROP ARL ARLP020
ARLP020 Propagation de K7RA

Solar activity was quiet this week. Average daily sunspot number slipped from 155.1 to 124.6, and average solar flux from 198.9 to 164.8.

Geomagnetic conditions were quiet, with average planetary A index going from 13.9 to 7.9, and middle latitude A index from 11.7 to 9.

Eight new sunspot groups emerged, one on May 23, two on May 25, four on May 26, and one on May 28.

The outlook for the next month predicts solar flux at 175 on May 31 through June 6, then 210, 200, 195, 190, 185 and 180 on June 7-12, 170 on June 13-14, 165 on June 15, 190 on June 16-17, 185 on June 18, then 190 on June 19-20, then 185, 195 and 200 on
June 21-23, then 210, 210 and 215 on June 24-26, 225 on June 27-29, 220 on June 30 through July 1, 210 on July 2-4, then 200, 195 and 190 on July 5-7.

Predicted planetary A index is 25 on May 31 and June 1, 5 on June 2-7, then 10, 12, 8, 12 and 10 on June 8-12, 5 on June 13-19 then 15 and 12 on June 20-21, then 5, 12, 8 and 5 on June 22-25, and 5, 10, 12, 12 and 8 on June 26-30, then 5 on July 1-4,
then 10, 12, 8, 12 and 10 on July 5-9.

Weekly Commentary on the Sun, the Magnetosphere, and the Earth's Ionosphere from OK1HH.

"Over the past seven days, two active regions have returned to the solar disk where large solar flares with CMEs were observed during the last solar revolution. These were regions AR3663 and AR3664, now designated AR3691 and AR3697. The activity of the
latter caused a major geomagnetic storm with auroras on 10 May, the largest in decades. Until these large groups of spots reach the center of the solar disk or near the central meridian (i.e., approximately June 6-7), solar activity will increase in a
roughly 20-day fluctuation and then decrease again.

"Even the last major solar flare on May 29 afternoon UTC was observed in AR3697 and was accompanied by a CME. Part of the particle cloud will probably hit Earth sometime between late afternoon on June 1 and the morning of June 2. The onset of the
phenomenon should be accompanied by an improvement in shortwave propagation conditions and a deterioration can be expected during its continuation on June 2.

"In the following days, due to increasing solar activity and a calmer state of the Earth's magnetosphere, shortwave propagation should improve again. However, if another large solar flare occurs, the development could be much more dramatic. Another
reason for the current instability of shortwave conditions is the rise in Summer sporadic-E layer activity in the northern hemisphere.

Spaceweather.com [ http://Spaceweather.com ] reports NOAA forecasters say a G2 class geomagnetic storm is possible on May 31 when a CME grazes earth. But a NASA forecast suggests a near miss. This is from a CME at 1433 UTC on May 29 from sunspot group
AR3664.

More on sunspot group AR3664:

https://bit.ly/4bAeJKA [ https://bit.ly/4bAeJKA ]

https://bit.ly/3wY48tT [ https://bit.ly/3wY48tT ]

https://tinyurl.com/2p9c98tm [ https://tinyurl.com/2p9c98tm ]

https://tinyurl.com/mskr6ptb [ https://tinyurl.com/mskr6ptb ]

https://tinyurl.com/ypnjcc6d [ https://tinyurl.com/ypnjcc6d ]

https://tinyurl.com/2pvuk5db [ https://tinyurl.com/2pvuk5db ]

The latest video from Dr. Tamitha Skov, WX6SWW:

https://youtu.be/O2Y9QGLMvsc [ https://youtu.be/O2Y9QGLMvsc ]

Send your tips, reports, observations, questions and comments to k7ra@arrl.net [ mailto:k7ra@arrl.net ] . When reporting observations, don't forget to tell us which mode you were operating.

For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation [ http://www.arrl.org/propagation ] and the ARRL Technical Information Service web page at, http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals [ http://arrl.org/
propagation-of-rf-signals ] . For an explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see
http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere [ http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere ] .

An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation [ http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation ] . More good information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/ [ http://k9la.us/ ] .

Also, check this QST article about Solar Indices:

https://bit.ly/3Rc8Njt [ https://bit.ly/3Rc8Njt ]

Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins [ http://arrl.org/bulletins ] .

Sunspot numbers for May 23 through 29 2024 were 130, 100, 106, 148, 116, 141, and 131, with a mean of 124.6. 10.7 cm flux was 176.2, 162.8, 152.4, 155.6, 170, 166.4, and 170.5, with a mean of 164.8. Estimated planetary A indices were 10, 9, 6, 10, 8, 6,
and 6, with a mean of 7.9. Middle latitude A index was 10, 11, 6, 10, 9, 7, and 10, with a mean of 8.
NNNN
/EX

ARRL The National Association for Amateur Radio®
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