XPost: rec.radio.amateur.space, rec.radio.shortwave, rec.radio.info

:Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
:Issued: 2022 May 16 0228 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
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# Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
#
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
09 - 15 May 2022

Solar activity ranged from low to high levels. Region 3006 (S30,
L=235, class/area=Eai/180 on 10 May) produced the strongest event of
the period, an impulsive X1/1b at 10/1355 UTC. Type II and Type IV
radio sweeps occurred near the event but wasn't clear if it was
associated with activity near the E limb, which also produced an
associated CME around the same time. The region only produced
C-class activity after that event and slowly decayed over the next
several days. Region 3007 (S24, L=184, class/area=Ekc/350 on 12 May)
produced an M1/1n flare on 11/1648 UTC. While being the most complex
region on the visible disk, it also only produced C-class activity
through the end of the reporting period. The remaining spotted
regions on the visible disk were relatively simple and produced only
low-level X-ray activity.

Other activity included several M-flare events that were produced
from activity from around both the E and W limbs. An M2 flare at
11/1858 UTC from the vicinity of Region 3004 (S16, L=324,
class/area=Dkc/500 on 05 May), which had around the W limb two days
before, produced a Type II and Type IV radio sweep. Ejecta from the
several CMEs observed during the period were determined to be off
the Sun-Earth line, with only the periphery of some of the CMEs
having the potential to cause minor enhancements near Earth.

No proton events above S1 (Minor) were observed at geosynchronous
orbit. An enhancement below the S1 threshold was observed after the
M2 flare from old Region 3004 around the W limb. The maximum >10
MeV proton flux was 5 pfu, observed early on 12 May.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at
normal to moderate levels throughout the reporting period.

Geomagnetic field activity ranged from quiet to active conditions.
Unsettled conditions that were observed on 09 May and 13 May were
likely associated with weak enhancements from transient activity.
Unsettled conditions on 14 May into active conditions on 15 May were
associated with the onset CIR followed by influence from a positive
polarity CH HSS. Solar wind speeds increased from the mid 300's
km/s to ~570 km/s on 15 May. The remainder of the reporting period
was at quiet levels.

Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
16 May - 11 June 2022

Solar activity is expected to be low levels throughout most of the
outlook period. With the exception of 21-22 May, regions associated
with M-flare activity are expected to be present on the visible
disk, carrying with them a slight chance for M-class activity.

No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is
expected to be at moderate levels from 16-25 May and 05-11 Jun. High
levels are expected on 26 May - 04 Jun and are associated with
influence from anticipated CH HSS activity.

Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at quiet to G1 (Minor)
geomagnetic storm levels. G1 levels are likely on 24 May; active
levels are likely on 16 May, 25-17 May, and 11 Jun; unsettled levels
are likely on 17 May, 19-20 May, 28 May, and 10 Jun. All elevations
in geomagnetic activity are anticipated in response to multiple,
recurrent CH HSSs. The remainder of the outlook period is expected
to be at mostly quiet levels.

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