XPost: rec.radio.shortwave, rec.radio.info

SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP019
ARLP019 Propagation de K7RA

ZCZC AP19
QST de W1AW
Propagation Forecast Bulletin 19 ARLP019

From Tad Cook, K7RA

Seattle, WA May 13, 2022
To all radio amateurs

SB PROP ARL ARLP019
ARLP019 Propagation de K7RA

We saw some evidence of sporadic-e propagation this week on 6 and 10
meters, always surprising and exciting.

Solar activity was about the same as last week, at least going by
the numbers.

Average daily sunspot numbers rose slightly from 68.6 to 74.4, while
average daily solar flux only budged from 120 to 120.3.

Geomagnetic indicators were quieter, with average daily planetary A
index shifting from 10.7 to 5, and average middle latitude numbers
from 9.3 to 4.6. We listed the middle latitude A index on May 6 as
2, but that number is my own estimate. At the end of that day the
last K index reading was not reported, and since the A index for the
day is calculated from all the K index readings, there was no
official middle latitude A index reported, so I came up with my own
estimate based on available data.

Thursday's outlook for solar flux is more optimistic than last
week's prediction, with no values below 100. Expected flux values
are 135 on May 13-16, then 132, 128, 126, and 120 on May 17-20, then
118, 120, 124 and 121 on May 21-24, 118 on May 25-27, 116 on May
28-31, 118 on June 1-5, then 116 and 118 on June 6-7, 120 on June
8-9, 122 on June 10-14, 118 on June 15-17, then 120, 124 and 121 on
June 18-20.

Planetary A index is predicted at 8 on May 13, 12 on May 14-15, then
14 and 8 on May 16-17, 5 on May 18-19, then 12 and 8 on May 20-21, 5
on May 22-23, 18 on May 24, 15 on May 25-27, 8 on May 28, and 5 on
May 29 through June 15, a nice long quiet spell of geomagnetic
stability for more than 2 weeks.

Thursday's forecast was prepared by Trost and Housseal of the U.S.
Air Force.

OK1HH wrote:

"Solar flares continue to occur, and some of them are throwing
several overlapping CMEs into space. The amount of CMEs leaving the
sun is large enough to make it difficult to unravel their different
shapes and trajectories, which reduces the reliability of
predictions. Nevertheless, the geomagnetic activity is mostly low,
which can be explained by the fact that the magnetic fields above
the solar surface are mostly closed.

An intense solar flare of class X1.5 was observed on May 10 at 1355
UT in the active region 3006 with a complex magnetic structure.
Radiation from the flare ionized the Earth's atmosphere and caused a
shortwave radio outage around the Atlantic Ocean, more specifically
from Central Europe to the east coast of the United States (see
Dellinger effect). Radio transmissions at frequencies below 30 MHz
were attenuated for more than an hour after the eruption.

Another M-flare on the afternoon of May 11 was a proton flare.

Another CME on May 11 came from the sunspots on the far side - one
just behind the eastern limb of the Sun and the other just behind
the western limb. We do not expect the solar wind around the Earth
to intensify again."

Dellinger effect:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sudden_ionospheric_disturbance

Here is a blackout map for the above mentioned May 10 event:

https://bit.ly/3w7jQjg

More on this event:

https://bit.ly/3N98Nf0

https://bit.ly/3NgULrX

Mystery of the bright spots:

https://bit.ly/3wbiBQa

WA6LIE wrote in a message titled "TEP to Fiji":

"Yesterday evening March 10 just after 0600 UTC I was getting ready
to go to bed and saw 3D2AG calling CQ on 6 meter FT8.

I gave him a call and we made a QSO.

He was decoded here in Salinas CA. CM96 for an hour and a half with
no takers.

Looks like the Magic band is starting to play!

Will go back to my saying: gotta be in the right place at the right
time and get lucky! Heads up!"

K5JRN wrote:

"Today (05/07/2022) at 1601 UTC, I caught a brief 2-meter E-skip
opening and worked W4AS in EL95, using FT8, 25 Watts, and an indoor
mobile whip antenna. It was an 1100-mile hop from EM10, in Austin
TX, to the Miami FL area. He was +04 here and I was -24 there, no
doubt because of my low power and cross-polarization. It was a new
grid for me on 2, and I'm happy to have it."

Massive solar flare, almost:

https://bit.ly/3Maqvij

Solar cycle progress update from NOAA:

https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/solar-cycle-progression

Real time geomagnetic updates:

https://www.solarham.net/kp.htm

Latest from Space Weather Woman Dr. Skov, WX6SWW:

https://youtu.be/PUArR1QXTAg

For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation and the ARRL Technical Information
Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals. For an
explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere.

An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation. More good
information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/.

Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL
bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins .

Sunspot numbers for May 5 through 11, 2022 were 85, 64, 66, 89, 71,
62, and 84, with a mean of 74.4. 10.7 cm flux was 119.9, 119.2,
118.1, 119.2, 117, 115.8, and 132.9, with a mean of 120.3. Estimated
planetary A indices were 4, 5, 3, 6, 8, 3, and 6, with a mean of 5.
Middle latitude A index was 4, 2, 4, 7, 8, 2, and 5, with a mean of
4.6.
NNNN
/EX

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XPost: rec.radio.shortwave, rec.radio.info

SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP019
ARLP019 Propagation de K7RA

ZCZC AP19
QST de W1AW
Propagation Forecast Bulletin 19 ARLP019

From Tad Cook, K7RA

Seattle, WA May 12, 2023
To all radio amateurs

SB PROP ARL ARLP019
ARLP019 Propagation de K7RA

We saw a modest increase in solar activity in this reporting week,
May 4-10.

Average daily sunspot numbers nudged up from 114 to 119.3, and
average daily solar flux from 151.5 to 167.1

Average daily planetary A index changed from 13.6 to 15.1, and
average middle latitude A index remained the same, 11.9.

Predicted solar flux is 160 on May 12-13, then 155, 150 and 150 on
May 14-16, 145 on May 17-18, 155 on May 19-21, 150 on May 22, 145 on
May 23-25, then 140 and 145 on May 26-27, 155 on May 29-30, 160 on
May 31 through June 1, 155 on June 2-3, 160 on June 4-7, then 165,
160, 150, 145 and 150 on June 8-12, and 155 on June 13-17.

Predicted planetary A index is 30, 12 and 8 on May 12-14, 5 on May
15-22, then 12 and 20 on May 23-24, 15 on May 25-26, 10 on May
27-28, 8 on May 29, 5 on May 30 through June 1, then 16, 12, 16 and
12 on June 2-5, 8 on June 6-8, and 5 on June 9- 18, then 12 and 20
on June 19-20.

Stormy space weather:

https://www.space.com/sun-reverse-sunspot-auroras-supercharge

BBC on viewing aurora:

https://www.sciencefocus.com/news/northern-lights-may-2023-backward-sunspot/

More:

https://bit.ly/44Rruxk

Jon, N0JK wrote on May 9:

"Good 6 Meter Es, TEP May 7 FT8 from northeast Kansas.

I worked CX2AQ and LU5FF from home with an attic dipole on FT8. This
around 2115 UTC. Not strong, but solid contacts. I then set up
portable.

Worked CE2SV and CE3SX. CE3SX called me, also FT8. Had difficulty
keeping yagi up due to gusty winds. On ON4KST Dale, CE2SV noted:

00:11:46 N0JK Jon, A struggle on my side, wind blew antenna down
several times and broke director. Duct tape to the rescue.

00:11:07 N0JK Jon (CE2SV) Dale - Thank you for the contact.

22:42:46 CE2SV Dale (N0JK) Finally Jon ... TU

Gary, N0KQY observes there is a 'consistent time frame' for Es --
TEP to South America from the Midwest. Best seems to be 2000-0000
UTC."

Weekly Commentary on the Sun, the Magnetosphere, and the Earth's
Ionosphere May 12-18, 2023 from F.K. Janda, OK1HH.

"The more vivid and complex solar activity is, the less predictable
it is. The same is valid for its effects in the Earth's
magnetosphere and ionosphere.

This was particularly true of the solar flares of May 4 and 5, and
also of the G2 class geomagnetic storm with auroras. The CMEs
overlapping each other were difficult to separate.

Another CME that struck the Earth on May 7 (1544 UTC) was expected
but, contrary to predictions, did not cause a significant storm.
Another Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) hit the Earth on May 9 at 2310
UTC.

Shortly before, AR3296 (with reversed magnetic polarity and thus
violating Hale's law) released a double solar flare.

The consequence was the Dellinger effect (a shortwave fade) up to 25
MHz from 1900-2100 UTC. Another CME followed with a velocity of over
1,000 km/s (2.24 million mph). Shock waves at its leading edge
accelerated protons to nearly the speed of light, making them
'relativistic particles', for which time passes more slowly. They
can reach the Earth and affect the ionosphere.

These lines are written on the afternoon of 11 May UTC, when the
particles from the eruption of 9 May with a maximum at 1858 UTC are
expected to arrive.

Large AR3296 and AR3297 will set behind the northwestern edge of the
solar disc in a few days. In the meantime, AR3301 and AR3302 emerged
in the northeast.

Helioseismological observations indicate another large sunspot group
will follow them out. Therefore, the current variable nature of the
evolution with numerous disturbances will continue."

Five days ago from Dr. Tamitha Skov:

https://youtu.be/E1lBqqWEa5Q

Send your tips, reports, observations, questions and comments to
k7ra@arrl.net. When reporting observations, don't forget to tell us
which mode you were operating.

For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation and the ARRL Technical Information
Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals . For an
explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere .

An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation . More good
information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/ .

Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL
bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins .

Sunspot numbers for May 4 through 10, 2023 were 139, 90, 99, 99,
103, 151, and 154, with a mean of 119.3. 10.7 cm flux was 162,
161.9, 151.8, 157.2, 171.9, 194.7, and 170.1, with a mean of 167.1.
Estimated planetary A indices were 6, 5, 30, 9, 16, 14, and 26, with
a mean of 15.1. Middle latitude A index was 7, 4, 21, 8, 13, 11, and
19, with a mean of 11.9.
NNNN
/EX

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XPost: rec.radio.shortwave, rec.radio.info

SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP019
ARLP019 Propagation de K7RA

ZCZC AP19
QST de W1AW
Propagation Forecast Bulletin 19 ARLP019

From Tad Cook, K7RA

Seattle, WA May 10, 2024
To all radio amateurs

SB PROP ARL ARLP019
ARLP019 Propagation de K7RA

"ASWFC GEOMAGNETIC DISTURBANCE WARNING ISSUED AT 2302 UTC/09 MAY
2024 BY THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE.

"Four halo CMEs first observed over 08-09 May are expected to arrive
at Earth on 10-May, starting at 1000 UTC +/- 10 hours. G4
geomagnetic conditions are expected on 10-May, reducing to G3 with a
chance of G4 on 11-May.

"INCREASED GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY EXPECTED DUE TO CORONAL MASS
EJECTION FROM 10-12 MAY 2024.

"GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY FORECAST:

"10 May: G4
11 May: G3, chance of G4
12 May: G1"

Six new sunspot groups appeared this reporting week, May 2-8, one
each day on May 2-4, two on May 5 and another on May 6. On May 9 two
more sunspot groups emerged, and the daily sunspot number rose to
170.

Average daily sunspot number increased from 124.6 to 138.3, and
average daily solar flux rose from 144.9 to 177.6.

Average daily planetary A index climbed from 9.6 to 14.4, while
middle latitude numbers went from 8.6 to 12.3.

The most active day was May 2, when the planetary A index was 44.
Alaska's College A index was 61. The cause was two CMEs striking
Earth, causing a G3 class geomagnetic storm.

The solar flux is peaking now and may peak again around June 11-12
at 205.

Predicted solar flux is 240 and 225 on May 10-11, 220 on May 12-13,
then 215 on May 14, then 210 on May 15-16, and 200, 195, 190, 185,
180, 175, 170, 165 and 170 on May 17-25, then 175 on May 26-27, 170
on May 28, then 165 on May 29-31, then 175, 180, 185, 190 and 185 on
June 1-5, 175 on June 6-9, 180 on June 10, 205 on June 11-12, then
200, 195, 190 and 185 on June 13-16.

Predicted planetary A index is 8, 5, 8, 12 and 10 on May 10-14, 5 on
May 15-22, then 8, 12, 8, 5, 12 and 8 on May 23-28, then 5, 5 and 8
on May 29-31, and 12 on June 1-3, then 8, 10, 5 and 5 on June 4-7,
then 8, 15 and 10 on June 8-10, and 5 on June 11-18.

Weekly Commentary on the Sun, the Magnetosphere, and the Earth's
Ionosphere - May 9, 2024 from OK1HH.

"This week, the number of sunspot groups was smaller than in
previous weeks (decreased from nine on Monday to six on Wednesday),
but two of them (AR3663 and AR3664) are really big. Moreover, both
have a beta-gamma-delta magnetic configuration, indicating the
possibility of producing strong solar flares. Moderate flares
(M-class) were observed several times a day and large flares
(X-class) were not an exception.

"Although AR3663 is now approaching the northwestern limb of the
solar disk, the overall solar activity is certainly not decreasing,
quite the contrary: AR3664 continued to grow rapidly, and has merged
with neighboring AR3668 to rival the large Carrington spot of 1859
in size. If it were to produce a CME eruption similar to 1859, and
if the CME were to hit the Earth, the so-called 'Carrington Event'
could be repeated, with potentially devastating consequences for
power and communications grids.

"So far, on the lower shortwave bands, we have seen rapid and large
increases in attenuation during large flares, up to and including
disruption of communications for tens of minutes to hours. The
phenomenon is abbreviated SWF (Shortwave Fading), belongs to the SID
(Sudden Ionospheric Disturbance) group. SWF is named after two
physicists, John Howard Dellinger and Hans Mogel, as the Dellinger
effect, or sometimes Mogel-Dellinger effect.

"Solar flares with CMEs in the western half of the solar disk appear
to be followed by an increase in geomagnetic activity and a marked
fluctuation in shortwave propagation conditions around the weekend,
with a slow return to average conditions in the following days."

Recent reports from Dr. Tamitha Skov, WX6SWW:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CGdPOsRgBIE

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RDEWbYqyNAo


Today's large sunspot comparable to Carrington Event:

https://bit.ly/3Uxd94R


Not like Carrington event:

https://bit.ly/4dA8eJ3


Northern lights:

https://wapo.st/3UyKgp8

https://bit.ly/3JX27kK

https://bit.ly/3JUrbZr


Really big sunspots:

https://bit.ly/44E2gTI


Flare attacks Earth:

https://voi.id/en/technology/379507


May 11 warning on X-Class Solar Flares:

https://bit.ly/4bv45o5


Celestial onslaught of three Solar Flares:

https://bit.ly/4dAPDNk


Solar storm train:

https://bit.ly/3wjypDl


Aurora in Oregon and Washington.

https://bit.ly/4dvKDJE


More on Solar Storms:

https://bit.ly/3JQv3e6

Send your tips, reports, observations, questions, and comments to k7ra@arrl.net. When reporting observations, don't forget to tell us
which mode you were operating.

For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation and the ARRL Technical Information
Service web page at, http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals . For
an explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere .

An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation . More good
information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/ .

Also, check this QST article about Solar Indices:

https://bit.ly/3Rc8Njt

Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL
bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins .

Sunspot numbers for May 2 through 8 2024 were 125, 121, 136, 152,
148, 144, and 142 with a mean of 138.3. 10.7 cm flux was 141.9, 156,
166.6, 176.9, 171.2, 203.6, and 227.1, with a mean of 177.6.
Estimated planetary A indices were 44, 10, 6, 12, 15, 7, and 7, with
a mean of 14.4. Middle latitude A index was 24, 16, 5, 12, 13, 6,
and 10, with a mean of 12.3.
NNNN
/EX

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