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  • Weekly Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity, 02 - 08 May 2022

    From SWPC.Webmaster@noaa.gov@21:1/5 to All on Mon May 9 13:00:18 2022
    XPost: rec.radio.amateur.space, rec.radio.shortwave, rec.radio.info

    :Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
    :Issued: 2022 May 09 0232 UTC
    # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
    # Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
    # https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/content/subscription-services
    #
    # Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
    #
    Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
    02 - 08 May 2022

    Solar activity was ranged from low to high levels. High levels were
    observed on 03-04 May in response to an X1/Sf flare (R3-Strong) at
    03/1308 UTC, an M5 flare (R2-Moderate) 04/0019 UTC, and an M5/1b
    flare at 04/0900 UTC. The X-flare and first M-Flare were from Region
    3006 (S29, L=245, class/area=Cao/080 on 07 May) as it was behind the
    SE limb. The last M5 flare was from Region 3004 (S16, L=324,
    class/area=Dkc/500 on 05 May). Associated with the M5 flare from
    Region 3006 was a Type IV radio sweep. Both regions produced
    moderate activity from smaller M1-M2 flares (R1-Minor) over 05 May.
    Only C-class activity was observed for 02 May and 06-08 May. The two
    regions were responsible for the vast majority of flare activity
    during the week. Only Region 3007 (S23, L=190, class/area=Cao/060 on
    08 May) was able to produce additional flare activity but the events
    remained in the C-class range.

    While many CMEs were observed in coronagraph imagery only two, one
    from 03 May and one from 07 May, were thought to have an
    Earth-directed component. Each CME was thought to only produce a
    weak glancing blow at Earth's magnetosphere on 08 May and 10 May respectively.

    No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.

    The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached
    high levels every day over the reporting period due to activity from
    a negative polarity CH HSS. The maximum observed flux was 2,320 pfu
    at 03/1340 UTC.

    Geomagnetic field activity was ranged from quiet to unsettled. A
    waning negative polarity CH HSS caused an isolated period of
    unsettled conditions at the beginning of 02 May. The remainder of
    the summary period was quiet.

    Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
    09 May - 04 June 2022

    Solar activity is expected to be at mostly low levels during the
    outlook period. However, there is a slight chance for M-class (R1-R2 Minor-Moderate) activity throughout the period due to multiple
    regions currently on the visible disk and several that are expected
    to rotate on back onto the visible disk that produced M-class
    activity before rotating beyond the W limb.

    No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.

    The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is
    expected to range from moderate to high levels. High levels are
    expected from 26 May to 04 Jun due to influence from a recurrent,
    negative polarity CH HSS. The remainder of the outlook period is
    expected to reach moderate levels.

    Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at quiet to G1 (Minor)
    geomagnetic storm levels. G1 conditions are likely on 24 May; active
    conditions are likely on 20 May and 25-27 May due to recurrent CH
    HSS influence. Unsettled conditions over 10-11 May are likely due to
    influence from a glancing blow CME. Additional unsettled conditions
    are likely 21 May and 28 May due to recurrent CH HSS influence. The
    remainder of the outlook period is likely to be mostly quiet.

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