• Weekly Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity, 25 April - 01 May

    From SWPC.Webmaster@noaa.gov@21:1/5 to All on Mon May 2 13:00:20 2022
    XPost: rec.radio.amateur.space, rec.radio.shortwave, rec.radio.info

    :Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
    :Issued: 2022 May 02 0215 UTC
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    # Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
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    Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
    25 April - 01 May 2022

    Solar activity reached high levels during the period with an X1.1
    flare at 30/1347 UTC from Region 2994 (N14, L=105, class/area
    Eko/670 on 25 Apr). This event was accompanied by a Type II radio
    emission (est 1071 km/s shock speed). This region produced the bulk
    of the activity during the period, including several M-class flares.
    Regions 2993 (N19, L=111, class/area Cao/200 on 25 Apr), 2995 (N13,
    L-75, class/area Hsx/210 on 25 Apr), and 2996 (N24, L=63, class/area
    Cro/30 on 25 Apr) each produced an M-class flare. There were
    numerous CMEs associated with the flare activity during the period
    but the regions were all either on or beyond the East or West limbs
    and not Earth-directed.

    The greater than 10 MeV proton flux became elevated with peak flux
    4.2 pfu at 29/2145 UTC, likely associated with an M1.2 flare from
    Region 2996.

    The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached
    high levels on 29 Apr and 1 May due to influences from a combination
    of a CH HSS and transient passage.

    Geomagnetic field activity reached G1(Minor) storm levels on 27 Apr
    due to influences from transient passage. G1 levels were also
    observed on 30 Apr due to a combination of CH HSS influences and
    possible transient passage. Active levels were observed on 28-29 Apr
    due to CH HSS influences. Quiet to unsettled levels were observed on
    25-26 Apr and 1 May.

    Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
    02 May - 28 May 2022

    Solar activity is expected to be at low levels with a chance for
    moderate levels on 11-25 May due to Regions 2993 and 2994 rotating
    back on the disk. Very low to low levels are expected on 2-10 May
    and 26-28 May.

    There is a slight chance for a proton event at geosynchronous orbit
    on 11-25 May due to the potential from Regions 2993 and 2994
    rotating back onto the visible disk.

    The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is
    expected to be at moderate to high levels on 2-4 May, 14-17 May, and
    26-28 May due to influences from recurrent CH HSS activity. Normal
    to moderate levels are expected for the remainder of the period.

    Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be reach G1 (Minor) storm
    levels on 24 May due to recurrent CH HSS influences. Unsettled to
    active levels are expected on 2 May, 20 May, and 25-27 May also due
    to recurrent CH HSS influences. Quiet to unsettled levels are
    expected for the remainder of the period.

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