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  • Weekly Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity, 11 - 17 April 2022

    From SWPC.Webmaster@noaa.gov@21:1/5 to All on Mon Apr 18 13:00:15 2022
    XPost: rec.radio.amateur.space, rec.radio.shortwave, rec.radio.info

    :Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
    :Issued: 2022 Apr 18 0229 UTC
    # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
    # Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
    # https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/content/subscription-services
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    # Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
    #
    Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
    11 - 17 April 2022

    Solar activity reached very high levels during the period. Very low
    to low levels were observed on 11-14 April. Activity increased to
    moderate levels on 15 April due to a pair of M1 flares R1 (Minor),
    at 15/1031 UTC and 1359 UTC respectively, from Region 2993 (N21,
    L=111, class/area Dho/400 on 17 Apr. Moderate levels were observed
    on 16 Apr with another M1 flare (R1-Minor) at 16/1456 UTC from
    Region 2993. Activity increased to very high levels on 17 Apr with
    an X1 (R3-Strong) flare from Region 2994 (N13, L=106, class/area
    Eho/350 on 17 Apr) at 17/0334 UTC. Associated with this event was a
    Type II radio Sweep with an estimated shock velocity of 614 km/s. In
    addition, a Tenflare of 130 sfu was observed. Region 2993 also
    contributed two M1 flares (R1-Minor). Region 2992 (S31, L=248,
    class/area Dao/110 on 17 Apr) produced M-class activity as well on
    the 17th. The first was an M1/Sf at 17/2002 UTC and an M4/Sf at
    17/2234 UTC. Associated with this event was a Type II radio Sweep
    with a shock velocity of 837 km/s.

    No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.

    The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was was
    at high levels on 11-13 Apr and 16-17 Apr with a peak flux of 2,310
    pfu oberved at 17/1705 UTC. Normal to moderate levels were observed
    on 14-15 Apr.

    Geomagnetic field activity ranged from quiet to moderate storm
    levels (G2-Moderate). Quiet to active levels were observed on 11
    April due to negative polarity CH HSS influence. Quiet to active
    levels were observed on 12-13 April due to influence from the 07 Apr
    CME. Unsettled to minor to major storm levels were observed on 14-15
    Apr. Minor to major (G1-G2, Minor-Moderate) geomagnetic storm levels
    were observed on 14 Apr and minor (G1-Minor) storm levels were
    observed on 15 Apr, all due to influences from the 11 Apr CME. The
    highlight period finished with quiet to unsettled levels under
    effects from a positive polarity CH HSS.

    Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
    18 April - 14 May 2022

    Solar activity is expected to be at moderate to high levels (R1-R2, Minor-Moderate), with a slight chance for very high levels (R3,
    Strong), on 18-30 Apr and 11-14 May due to the flare potential from
    Regions 2993 and 2994. Very low to low activity is expected from
    01-10 May.

    A slight chance for proton events are expected at geosynchronous
    orbit is possible on 18-30 Apr and 11-14 May due to the potential
    from Regions 2993 and 2994.

    The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is
    expected to be at high levels on 18-20, 30 Apr, 01-02, 07-09 and 14
    May. Normal to moderate levels are expected for the remainder of the
    outlook period.

    Geomagnetic field activity is expected to reach unsettled to active
    levels on 18-20, 23, 29-30 Apr, 01, 06-08 and 13-14 May, all due to
    recurrent CH HSS effects. Mostly quiet conditions are anticipated
    for the remainder of the outlook period.

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