XPost: rec.radio.shortwave, rec.radio.info

SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP014
ARLP014 Propagation de K7RA

ZCZC AP14
QST de W1AW
Propagation Forecast Bulletin 14 ARLP014

From Tad Cook, K7RA

Seattle, WA April 8, 2022
To all radio amateurs

SB PROP ARL ARLP014
ARLP014 Propagation de K7RA

Lots of solar activity livened up HF conditions over the past
reporting week, March 31 to April 6. Average daily sunspot number
rose from 90.1 to 94.6, and daily solar flux from 132.7 to 135.3.

It looks like solar flux may peak this month at 140 on April 24-28.

Since March 18 we were unable to get daily solar flux from the
observatory in Penticton, British Columbia, so for a couple of weeks
we relied on secondary sources which were all in whole numbers,
instead of resolving to 0.1. Multiple inquiries to the observatory
led nowhere, but now the data is back online at,
https://bit.ly/3LDlgqC .

I had to fudge the flux value for March 31, because the value of
239.5 was obviously an error, probably due to a CME overwhelming the
10.7 cm receiver at the observatory, so I averaged the morning and
afternoon readings to 149.3. The official daily flux value is always
from the 2000 UTC local noon reading.

Geomagnetic conditions were quite active on March 31 through April
2. Average daily planetary A index for the week increased from 10 to
14.4, and middle latitude A index from 8.1 to 10.9.

Spaceweather.com reported 146 solar flares over the month of March
and predicts even more for April. They also report that Solar Cycle
25 is progressing faster and stronger than earlier predictions.

A new sunspot group appeared on March 31, two more on April 1,
another on April 2 and one more on April 3, and one more on April 5.

Predicted solar flux is 108 on April 8-9, 105 on April 10-11, 100 on
April 12-14, then 110, 115 and 120 on April 15-17, 125 on April
18-19, 130 on April 20-23, 140 on April 24-28, 135 on April 29-30,
130 on May 1, 120 on May 2-3, 125 on May 4-5, 120 on May 6, 115 on
May 7-8, 110 on May 8-9, 115 on May 11, and 120 on May 12-14.

Predicted planetary A index is 12, 15, 10 and 8 on April 8-11, 5 on
April 12-19, 10 on April 20-21, then 5, 15, 10 and 8 on April 22-25,
5 on April 26-28, then 18, 12, 10 and 8 on April 29 through May 2, 5
on May 3-7, then 12 and 10 on May 8-9, and 5 on May 10-16.

Solar wind in the news:

https://bit.ly/3rdXycD

F.K. Janda, OK1HH reports:

"Total solar activity has been declining. Recent CMEs generated by
solar flares have usually not been headed to Earth. In particular,
on April 6, the solar wind was expected to intensify from a CME
generated by a filament eruption on April 3rd, but only a small
portion of the solar plasma cloud reached Earth.

"The Earth's magnetic field was unsettled to active until April 2
and partly on April 4 and 7. The increased geomagnetic activity on
the night of April 3 to 4 worsened diurnal short wave propagation
conditions on April 4. Thereafter, despite the continuing decline in
solar activity, shortwave propagation conditions improved.

"In further development, we first expect a decline in solar
activity. Its growth in the second half of the month will again
cause an improvement of shortwave propagation. However, the
development will be slightly irregular."

Another great video forecast from Dr. Tamitha Skov, WX6SWW, the
Space Weather Woman:

https://youtu.be/SxU6Lv30DuQ

WB8VLC reports from Oregon:

"Another great week on 10 meters but only SSB/CW and not much FM
activity, but the activity was very strong with signals to South
Africa, Taiwan, Philippines, Norfolk Island, and Australia.

"Interesting that I have not heard any European stations during any
morning or afternoon openings to the east, just South Africa."

A small portion of his log:

"April 3 it was ZS in the morning and VK at night then China and
Philippines:

"2344 UTC N7ET/DU7 28.014 CW 599 Philippines
2340 UTC BV1EL 28.010 CW 599 Taiwan
2311 UTC VK3NX 28.015 CW 599 Australia
1900 UTC ZS3Y 28.373 SSB 55 South Africa"

K5JRN reports on 6 meters from Austin, Texas:

"Interesting conditions observed here on April 4 and 6. On 6 meters
on 4/4/22, I worked HK3X (FJ24) in Columbia and HC1MD/2 (EI97) in
Ecuador while running 30 watts to an indoor dipole wrapped around a
couple of bamboo tomato stakes glued end to end. [I will assume FT8
was the mode. - K7RA]

"That same combo helped me snag HC2DR (FI07) in Ecuador today (4/6).
My signals were not strong, ranging from -13 to -24 in Colombia and
Ecuador. I've also been heard in Argentina and have copied several
Argentinian hams, including LU9AEA (GF05), but have not yet worked
an LU on 6.

"Today, I've also been heard in Uruguay by CX7CO (GF15) but have not
heard any CX stations yet. Indeed, I'm not receiving anyone else on
6 meters except a few locals and those South American stations. The
north-south paths seem like narrow pipelines."

Speaking of "narrow pipelines," I often see this on 10 and 12 meters
using FT8. Monitoring pskreporter.info, on April 7 at 1630 UTC on 12
meters my signal was only reported by stations on the East Coast
over a narrow band, all from 2296-2359 miles from me, at first only
by many stations in Virginia and North Carolina, but not South
Carolina.

Later at 1645 UTC coverage expanded to Florida and Georgia, but
still within that narrow mileage limit. Later by 1720 UTC reports
had spread to New York, Georgia and Florida, and the mileage range
expanded slightly to 2119-2489 miles. But there was one major
exception, HK3A in Bogota, Colombia at 4091 miles.

The night before (local time) at 0220 UTC on 17 meters I was copied
only into a specific area about 2300 miles away in Ohio, Virginia, Pennsylvania, and Maryland, then suddenly at 0232 UTC the coverage
expanded to California, Oregon, Texas, Alabama, and Florida. All of
this with low power and a crude end-fed indoor antenna, fed with an
UnUn and autotuner.

Thanks to KA7F for the following:

https://bit.ly/3rbkUj8

Information on Solar Cycle 25 increasing:

https://bit.ly/3x9cv3p

And more from the Southgate Amateur Radio Club:

https://bit.ly/38BbEOW

More solar phenomena:

https://bit.ly/3ra65NV

And more:

https://earthsky.org/sun/sun-activity-week-of-march-28-to-april-3/

N0JK reports:

"On Saturday April 2, 2022 N0LL (EM09) copied LU5VV, CE2SV, LU1WFU
and PV8DX on 50.313 MHz FT8 TEP. I copied CE2SV on TEP and K0SIX
(EN35) calling PY5CC on 50.313 MHz Es at 2109 UTC."

If you would like to make a comment or have a tip for our readers,
please email the author at, k7ra@arrl.net.

For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation and the ARRL Technical Information
Service web page at, http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals. For
an explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere.

An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation. More good
information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/.

Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL
bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins .

Sunspot numbers for March 31 through April 6, 2022 were 84, 109,
118, 129, 86, 75, and 61, with a mean of 94.6. 10.7 cm flux was
149,3, 146.6, 143.3, 140.2, 128, 122.4, and 117, with a mean of
135.3. Estimated planetary A indices were 27, 17, 22, 10, 11, 6, and
8, with a mean of 14.4. Middle latitude A index was 18, 12, 19, 7,
8, 6, and 6, with a mean of 10.9.
NNNN
/EX

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
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XPost: rec.radio.shortwave, rec.radio.info

SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP014
ARLP014 Propagation de K7RA

ZCZC AP14
QST de W1AW
Propagation Forecast Bulletin 14 ARLP014

From Tad Cook, K7RA

Seattle, WA April 7, 2023
To all radio amateurs

SB PROP ARL ARLP014
ARLP014 Propagation de K7RA

Average solar flux and sunspot numbers were way down this week.
Sunspot numbers were down by half, from 112.6 last week to 53.4.
Average daily solar flux declined from 156.1 to 132.5.

Geomagnetic indicators were lower too. Average daily planetary A
index from 23.3 last week to 15 in this bulletin, and average daily
middle latitude A index from 13.7 to 11.7.

The April 1 middle latitude A index of 11 is my guess. The middle
latitude A index for April 1 was not available.

Predicted solar flux is 140 on April 7 and 8, 135 on April 9 to 11,
140, 145 and 130 on on April 12 to 14, 130 on April 14, 135 on April
15 to 17, 140 on April 18 to 20, 135 on April 21 to 23, then 130,
125 and 120 on April 24 to 26, 115 on April 27 to 29, 125 on April
30, 120 on May 1 and 2, 115 on May 3 and 4, then 110 on May 5 to 7,
and 115, 120, 125 and 130 on May 8 to 11, then 135 on May 12 to 14,
and 140 on May 15 to 17.

Predicted planetary A index is 5 on April 7 to 10, then 8, 8 and 5
on April 11 to 13, 8 on April 14 and 15, then 12, 10 and 15 on April
16 to 18, then 5, 20, 15 and 10 on April 19 to 22, 5 on April 23 to
25, then 15 and 18 on April 26 and 27, 15 on April 28 and 29, 8 on
April 30, 10 on May 1 and 2, 8 on May 3, then 5 on May 4 to 6, then
12, 10, 8 and 5 on May 7 to 10, 8 on May 11 and 12, then 10, 12, 15,
5 and 20 on May 13 to 17.

Weekly Commentary on the Sun, the Magnetosphere, and the Earth's
Ionosphere -- April 6, 2023 from F.K. Janda, OK1HH.

"On March 29, another solar flare of category X1.2 was observed. It
came from the AR3256 sunspot group near the southwestern limb of the
Sun.

This year, in just three months, we've already seen seven X-class
flares, the same as all of last year. There are still about two
years to go before the cycle peak.

On the morning of March 31, a solar wind stream hit Earth,
triggering a minor G1-class geomagnetic storm. A relatively quiet
weekend followed.

Then new sunspot group AR3270 emerged in the southern part of the
solar disk. It grew rapidly, its two dark cores, larger than Earth,
indicating an unstable magnetic field. If they merge an eruption
would likely follow. It would probably be a geoeffective eruption
because the sunspot was directly opposite the Earth.

After the AR3270 sunspot group dips behind the southwestern limb of
the solar disk this weekend, there should be a temporary drop in
overall solar activity, accompanied by a string of geomagnetically
quieter days.

As the irregular occurrence of higher geomagnetic activity results
in irregular changes in shortwave propagation conditions, the
subsequent evolution should be more regular and predictable."

This video from Tamitha Skov came out right after last week's
bulletin:

https://youtu.be/F8ERhLiOK88

More sun fun:

https://youtu.be/VWhhSWjDJtw

https://bit.ly/41aolq2

Don't worry:

https://bit.ly/3zCtg74

On April 5 from 1723 to 1746 UTC, Tom, WA1LBK in Fall River,
Massachusetts copied HC1MD/2 in Ecuador on 6 meter FT8. Check HC1MD
on QRZ.com for some beautiful photos by Rick, NE8Z.

https://bit.ly/3zBm5wa

This weekend is the CW portion of the Japan International DX
Contest.

See http://jidx.org/

Send your tips, reports, observations, questions and comments to
k7ra@arrl.net. When reporting observations, don't forget to tell us
which mode you were operating.

For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation and the ARRL Technical Information
Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals . For an
explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere .

An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation . More good
information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/ .

Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL
bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins .

Sunspot numbers for March 30 through April 5, 2023 were 99, 61, 23,
54, 56, 44, and 37, with a mean of 53.4. 10.7 cm flux was 140.3,
129.3, 125.3, 126.9, 133.6, 135.7, and 136.6, with a mean of 132.5.
Estimated planetary A indices were 17, 21, 13, 15, 15, 13, and 11,
with a mean of 15. Middle latitude A index was 11, 17, 11, 13, 11,
10, and 9, with a mean of 11.7.
NNNN
/EX

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XPost: rec.radio.shortwave, rec.radio.info

SB PROP ARL ARLP014
ARLP014 Propagation de K7RA

ZCZC AP14
QST de W1AW
Propagation Forecast Bulletin 14 ARLP014

From Tad Cook, K7RA

Seattle, WA April 5, 2024
To all radio amateurs

SB PROP ARL ARLP014
ARLP014 Propagation de K7RA

With the big increase in sunspot numbers and solar flux reported in
last week's Propagation Forecast Bulletin ARLP013, I hoped the trend
would continue, but numbers this week were lower.

Five new sunspot groups emerged, one each day from March 30 through
April 3.

Average daily sunspot numbers went from 147 to 60, and average daily
solar flux declined from 191.9 to 136.9.

Geomagnetic numbers were much quieter. Average daily planetary A
index softened to 7.6 from 25.4.

Predicted solar flux is 115 on April 5-8, 120 on April 9-10, 125 on
April 11, 140 on April 12-13, 150 on April 14-16, 160 on April
17-18, 170 on April 19-24, then 160, 150 and 140 on April 25-27,
then 130 on April 28 through May 4 then 160, 150, and 140 on May
5-10, then 150 on May 11-13.

The predicted flux values this week are much lower than in last
week's forecast for the same period.

Predicted planetary A index is 16 and 10 on April 5-6, 5 on April
7-8, 8 on April 9-10, 5 on April 11-18, 8 and 10 on April 19-20, 8
on April 21-23, 5 on April 24-26, 10 on April 27-28, 8 on April 29,
and 12 on April 30 through May 2, then 8, 5 and 5 on May 3-5, 8 on
May 6-8, and 5 on May 9-15.

The Weekly Commentary on the Sun, the Magnetosphere, and the Earth's
Ionosphere - April 4, 2024 from OK1HH.

"The two large and very active sunspot groups, AR3614 and AR3615,
bade us farewell last week by going beyond the western limb of the
solar disk. AR3615 still unleashed two powerful M-class flares and
an X1 flare that ionized the upper part of the Earth's atmosphere
and caused the Dellinger effect (shortwave fade) over the Pacific
Ocean on March 28 (with a maximum at 2053 UTC).

"AR3615 still managed to produce an M9.4-class solar flare on March
30, which was only one percent weaker than an X-class flare. After
that, we expected particles originating from solar radiation to
arrive in the vicinity of Earth, but this did not happen. The
development in the following days was therefore relatively quiet.

"Due to the calming of the geomagnetic field, we expected an
improvement in shortwave propagation. This occurred from 2 April
onwards but was only very slight due to the rapid decrease in solar
activity. After the return of active regions to the solar disk, we
expect an improvement in propagation, especially in the third decade
of April."

(I think he refers to a decade as a ten day period, so this would be
the last ten days of April).

Angel Santana, WP3GW, sent an email about last week's contest:

"WPX for me was pretty good even though I did not reach my goal.
There were openings toward Europe during Saturday midnight on 20
meters.

"Now on Sunday at midday, I noticed a reduction of stations on 10
meters, just like 2 weeks ago, but there were many strong stations
from South America and an hour later back to normal. My friend Jose,
KP4JRS (who operated as NP3YL) noticed this over the two days on 10
meters.

"Also noticed when a big contest is on the air, the bands tend to be
almost 'noiseless.'

"Not sure if because the SFI has gone down but today Thursday at
1500 UTC there is much noise on the bands. Hope the weekend fares
better."

WX2R reminds us that coming up on Monday, April 8 is the HamSCI
Solar Eclipse QSO Party:

"Join with thousands of your fellow amateurs as part of the largest crowd-sourced event for ham radio scientific exploration ever! The
SEQP is part of 'The Festivals of Eclipse Ionospheric Science' and
is for learning more about how the ionosphere works. Use any mode,
any band for all or part of the day!

"Participation can be from everywhere - you need not be near the
path of the eclipse to contribute valuable data by participating.

"Are you a contester? For details on the SEQP contest and rules go
to www.hamsci.org/contest-info. Don't forget to send in your log.

"For the Gladstone Signal Spotting Challenge using CW, WSPR and
FST4W modes, go to www.hamsci.org/contest-info.

"If you're an SWL or AM DX'er, there is the 'Medium Wave Recording
Event' for you as well. Go to www.hamsci.org/mw-recordings/.

"Or just get on the air and help provide the data to better
understand the ionosphere. Monday, 8 April 2024. Get on the air!
1400-2400 UTC.

"Do it for science! Any band/any mode except 60, 30, 17, and 12
meters."

From Forbes Magazine, an eclipse guide:

https://bit.ly/3J4zzoX

A DailyMotion video of a long duration flare, but no date given:

https://www.dailymotion.com/video/x8w8viq

Chip, N2YO, sent this email last week.

"Thanks for your excellent ARRL propagation bulletins!

"I also am running a weekly propagation bulletin for more than 20
years (in Romanian language). The bulletin is available on the web,
distributed online by email, and read during the 'Info DX' QTC on
80m each Thursday in Romania.

"All bulletins are available here:

https://www.radioamator.ro/misc/buletinepropagare.php

"On the first of each month I update a page of propagation charts in
certain directions, centered on YO:

https://www.radioamator.ro/misc/grafice_propagare.php

"I also run a YO DX Cluster which is powered by a DX Spider server
hosted by a Raspberry Pi in my basement that feeds a web page:

"https://www.radioamator.ro/yocluster/

"In fact, I run the whole radioamator.ro website, which is the most
popular YO ham radio resource on internet. This year the website
will have the 20th anniversary."

Recent video from Dr. Tamitha Skov, WX6SWW:

https://youtu.be/yKNB1YRX7kg

Send your tips, reports, observations, questions and comments to
k7ra@arrl.net. When reporting observations, don't forget to tell
us which mode you were operating.

For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation and the ARRL Technical Information
Service web page at, http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals . For
an explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere .

An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation . More good
information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/ .

Also, check this QST article about Solar Indices:

https://bit.ly/3Rc8Njt

Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL
bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins .

Sunspot numbers for March 28 through April 3 2024 were 101, 79, 60,
50, 50, 35, and 45, with a mean of 60. 10.7 cm flux was 172.7,
167.3, 139.6, 133.6, 120.4, 112.8, and 111.7, with a mean of 136.9.
Estimated planetary A indices were 7, 6, 5, 9, 11, 8, and 7, with a
mean of 7.6. Middle latitude A index was 6, 4, 4, 8, 9, 7, and 10,
with a mean of 6.9.
NNNN
/EX

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