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  • Weekly Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity, 07 - 13 March 2022

    From SWPC.Webmaster@noaa.gov@21:1/5 to All on Mon Mar 14 13:00:14 2022
    XPost: rec.radio.amateur.space, rec.radio.shortwave, rec.radio.info

    :Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
    :Issued: 2022 Mar 14 0554 UTC
    # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
    # Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
    # https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/content/subscription-services
    #
    # Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
    #
    Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
    07 - 13 March 2022

    Solar activity was at low levels most of the period with the
    exception of 11 Mar when it reached moderate levels due to an M2/Sf
    flare at 11/2232 UTC from Region 2964 (S28, L=012, class/area
    Dso/070 on 10 Mar). Associated with the M2 flare was a CME off the
    SW limb beginning at 12/0000 UTC in SOHO/LASCO C2 imagery. WSA-Enlil
    analysis showed no Earth-directed component. Two other CMEs had
    Earth-directed components, however. The first was on 06 Mar that
    began as a filament eruption in the NE quadrant centered near N15W35
    beginning at 06/2252 UTC. A subsequent CME was observed off the NW
    limb beginning at 07/0000 UTC. WSA-Enlil analysis showed a glancing
    blow arrival late on 10 Mar. The second was associated with a long
    duration C2 flare at 10/2045 UTC near Region 2962 (N26, L=324,
    Cro/030 on 06 Mar). A partial halo CME was observed from that event
    beginning at 10/1912 UTC. WSA-Enlil analysis showed an impact
    arrival around late on 13 Mar.

    No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit. A proton
    enhancement of the greater than 10 MeV protons to 2 pfu was observed
    at 11/0720 UTC likely associated with the long duration C2 flare at
    10/2045 UTC.

    The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at
    high levels on 07-10 March with a peak of 10,194 pfu observed at
    07/1525 UTC. Normal to moderate levels were observed on 11-13 Mar.

    Geomagnetic field activity began under waning negative polarity CH
    HSS conditions. Solar wind speed decreased from approximately 500
    km/s to at or below 400 km/s by late on 08 Mar. Nominal levels
    followed through most of 10 Mar. The field responded with quiet to
    unsettled periods on 07 Mar through late on 10 Mar. At 10/1642 UTC,
    density increased to 32 1/cm^3 while total field increased to a
    maximum of 18 nT at 10/2057 UTC while the Bz component was between
    +16/-10 nT as the 06 Mar CME began to impact the geomagnetic field.
    Solar wind speed was mostly between 350-420 km/s. Activity persisted
    through 12/0600 UTC with several prolonged periods of southward Bz.
    The geomagnetic field responded with active levels late on 10 Mar,
    followed by quiet to G1 (Minor) storm conditions on 11-12 Mar.
    Shortly following, at 13/1007 UTC, an interplanetary shock was
    observed at the DSCOVR spacecraft followed by a 33 nT geomagnetic
    sudden impulse at 13/1052 UTC (Wingst magnetometer) as the 10 Mar
    CME began to impact the geomagnetic field. Solar wind speed
    initially increased to 603 km/s at 13/1034 UTC, but then quickly
    subsided to between 430-500 km/s. Total field increased to a maximum
    of 25 nT at 13/1744 UTC and remained there through the end of the
    period. Southward deflections of the Bz component to near -24 nT
    were also observed. The geomagnetic field responded with active to
    G2 (Moderate) storm conditions on 13 Mar.

    Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
    14 March - 09 April 2022

    Solar activity is expected to be at very low to low levels with a
    chance for M-class (R1-R2, Minor-Moderate) flares on 14-23 Mar due
    to potential flare activity from Region 2965. Very low to low
    activity is expected thereafter.

    No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.

    The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is
    expected to reach high levels on 16-19 Mar due to CME influence.
    High levels are expected once again on 02-06 Apr due to recurrent CH
    HSS influence.

    Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at unsettled to G2
    (Moderate) storm levels on 14 Mar followed by unsettled to G1
    (Minor) storm levels on 15 Mar as activity from the 10 Mar CME
    persists. Unsettled to active levels are expected on 20-22 Mar,
    26-27 Mar, and 31 Mar-03 Apr with G1 (Minor) storm conditions likely
    on 01 Apr due to recurrent CH HSSs.

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