XPost: rec.radio.shortwave, rec.radio.info

SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP010
ARLP010 Propagation de K7RA

ZCZC AP10
QST de W1AW
Propagation Forecast Bulletin 10 ARLP010

From Tad Cook, K7RA

Seattle, WA March 11, 2022
To all radio amateurs

SB PROP ARL ARLP010
ARLP010 Propagation de K7RA

On March 11 at 0431 UTC Australia's Space Forecast Centre issued
this warning:

"A slow coronal mass ejection has been observed late on 10 march,
and event modeling suggests arrival at the Earth late on 13 March.
Increased geomagnetic activity is expected for 14 March 2022."

We observed an active Sun this week. Geomagnetic indicators peaked
on Saturday, March 5 when Alaska's high latitude college A index
reached 42.

Again this week, sunspots covered the Sun every day. Average daily
sunspot numbers rose from 44 to 87.4, and average daily solar flux
went from 98.5 to 115.5. Geomagnetic indicators were also higher.
Average daily planetary A index increased from 7.3 to 11.4.

Predicted solar flux is 120 on March 11-12, 115 on March 13, 110 on
March 14-16, 105 on March 17, 100 on March 18-21, then 101 and 103
on March 22-23, 104 on March 24-27, then 110, 115 and 116 on March
28-30, 118 on March 31 through April 1, 120 on April 2, 116 on April
3-4, then 115 and 112 on April 5-6, 110 on April 7-9, then 108, 102,
98 and 99 on April 10-13 then 100 on April 14-17.

Predicted planetary A index is 12 on March 11, 5 on March 12-13,
then 10, 18, 15, 5 and 8 on March 14-18, then 12 on March 19-20, 15
on March 21, 7 on March 22-24, then 5, 10 and 8 on March 25-27, 5 on
March 28-29, then 10, 12, 25, 20 and 10 on March 30 through April 3,
5 on April 4-6, then 15, 20 and 12 on April 7-9, and 5 on April
10-13, then 8 on April 14, and 10 on April 15-16.

OK1HH wrote, "The power density of solar radio noise at a wavelength
of 10.7 cm, more briefly referred to as 'solar flux,' remains above
110 for a week. Because we see two more active areas beyond the
eastern limb of the solar disk (thanks to the STEREO Ahead
satellite), solar flux should stay that way for another week.

"The concurrence of increased solar activity with seasonal changes
during the approaching equinox results in improved conditions for
short-wave ionospheric propagation.

"Occasional irregular occurrences of a slight increase in
geomagnetic activity (as was the case on March 5-6) cause only a
slight deterioration. Possible recurrent disturbance is expected
until the beginning of April, probably already in its first days."

Russ Hunt, WQ3X wrote on March 4, "Yesterday I heard WA2BOT on 10m
FT8 working DX on the long path and aimed my beam due south. In just
over a half hour's time I worked 33 JAs, 2 DUs and VR2XYL. I had a
pileup 6 deep at times using 250w and 5 element Yagi at 50'. It was
probably the most exciting time I've had in the last 20 yrs. Today I
worked two more VR2s and 3 JAs also LP just after sunrise. Love them
'spots.'"

A few hours later he wrote, "During the middle of the day we get
some VK/ZLs starting around 3 PM local time. But try sunrise and
sunset and you will find a lot of DX.

"I hear the 6s and 7s working a lot of Asia in the evening. Here we
get EU, Africa, and the middle east in the mornings. I've done WAC
about 4 or 5 times a week, but now running out of new stations to
work."

Robert Strickland, KE2WY asked about a good source for the latest
daily sunspot numbers, and I sent him to this site:

https://services.swpc.noaa.gov/text/daily-solar-indices.txt

On March 10, N9II sent some observations of last week's DX contest,
only a small portion presented here.

"I operated single band 15M in the ARRL DX contest but made a few
QSOs on other bands. 20M was open well to Africa and south in the
0100 UTC hour Saturday, some very loud Caribbean signals. 10M was
open for many hours to the south some booming signals even from LP
stations in Puerto Rico and Turks and Caicos and many HP stations
like J68HZ, St Lucia, PJ4G on Bonaire, and PJ2T, Curacao.

"On 15M, a disturbance and slightly low solar flux made for some
challenging conditions to Asia and northern Europe.

"Saturday evening the disturbance rendered Japan nearly completely
closed, with Sunday evening conditions fair with most signals less
than S9.

"I made 600 15M QSOs working 86 countries.

"On 10M CW starting 1414 UTC on March 8 I worked 3 new ones in a
row: 7Q6M, Malawi, 5X1NA, Uganda, and JY5HX, Jordan.

"Then on 10 SSB, Dov, 4Z4DX, Israel, on 10 CW V26K, Antigua, and
OA1F in Peru.

"Later on 17 CW V4/G0TLE, St. Kitts, then topping off with E51BQ on
South Cook Islands on 10 SSB at 2325 UTC.

"On 12m CW on the 9th at 1550 UTC I worked V26K. I called CQ on 10
SSB at 1557 UTC and was called by Spain, then Francisco, TT8FC in
Chad, ZS1PPY, South Africa, then 3B8HE in Mauritius. Today, the 10th
featured excellent high band propagation with today's solar flux
climbing to 127. I heard Indonesia peaking S8 on 15M SSB at 1340
UTC, then worked 4L1AN in Georgia at 1344 UTC (new), VU2DSI, India,
at 1353 UTC.

"Turning to 10M SSB, I found Selki, S01WS, Southern Sahara, and
CU1EZ, Azores for #100 on 10 SSB. Then at 1551 UTC for the next hour
10M blew wide open to Europe starting with Bulgaria, Italy, and
Hungary.

"Several stations with simple end fed wires were S9 and the loudest
signals were S9+20 dB or a bit stronger. This was one of the best
openings all Winter, but others were more widespread farther north."

Here is an email list for operators of, or anyone interested in, HF
beacons:

https://www.freelists.org/webpage/hfbeacons

The Vernal Equinox is in a little over a week, 1533 UTC on Sunday,
March 20, when Earth will be bathed in an equal amount of solar
radiation over both southern and northern hemispheres, good for HF
propagation. It is the first day of Spring in the northern
hemisphere and Fall in the southern.

If you would like to make a comment or have a tip for our readers,
please email the author at, k7ra@arrl.net .

For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation and the ARRL Technical Information
Service web page at, http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals. For
an explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere .

An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation. More good
information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/ .

Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL
bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins .

Sunspot numbers for March 3 through 9, 2022 were 92, 77, 95, 82, 84,
93, and 89, with a mean of 87.4. 10.7 cm flux was 110.9, 113.1,
120.1, 115.7, 118.3, 115.3, and 114.8, with a mean of 115.5.
Estimated planetary A indices were 5, 10, 27, 18, 9, 6, and 5, with
a mean of 11.4. Middle latitude A index was 3, 7, 19, 13, 7, 5, and
4, with a mean of 8.3.
NNNN
/EX

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

XPost: rec.radio.shortwave, rec.radio.info

SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP010
ARLP010 Propagation de K7RA

ZCZC AP10
QST de W1AW
Propagation Forecast Bulletin 10 ARLP010

From Tad Cook, K7RA

Seattle, WA March 10, 2023
To all radio amateurs

SB PROP ARL ARLP010
ARLP010 Propagation de K7RA

So far this month, two new sunspot groups appeared on March 1,
another one on March 2, three more on March 3, one more on March 5,
two more on March 6, and another on March 7, then two more on March
9.

Average daily sunspot numbers rose from 126.3 to 143.6.

Average daily solar flux changed from 158.2 to 181.6

Average daily planetary A index declined from 27.7 to 14.6, and
average middle latitude numbers went from 18.9 to 10.7, reflecting
the quieter conditions following the upset the week before.

The Penticton observatory, the source for solar flux data is way up
at 49.5 degrees north longitude, in eastern British Columbia. For
much of the year the Sun is low in the sky, so all winter they do
their thrice daily readings at 1800, 2000 and 2200 UTC. But on March
1 they shifted over to 1700, 2000 and 2300 UTC. The local noon (2000
UTC) reading is the official solar flux for the day.

You can see the data and the dates here:

https://www.spaceweather.gc.ca/forecast-prevision/solar-solaire/solarflux/sx-5-flux-en.php

The Vernal Equinox, when the northern and southern hemispheres are
bathed in equal solar radiation is less than two weeks away.

Predicted solar flux shows values peaking now, and again on March
16-19.

Flux values are expected at 178, 175, and 170 March 10-12, 172 on
March 13-14, 170 on March 15-16, 180 on March 17-18, 175, 170 and
165 on March 19-21, 160 on March 22-23, 155 on March 24-26, 150 on
March 27-28, 145 on March 29-30, then 140, 145, 150, 155, and 160 on
March 31 through April 4, 165 on April 5-8, 170 on April 9-11, 175
on April 12, 180 on April 13-14, then 175, 170 and 165 on April
15-17.

Predicted planetary A index is 8, 8, 10 and 8 on March 10-13, 5 on
March 14-15, 8 on March 16-17, then 5, 8 and 16 on March 18-20, 5 on
March 21-23, then 12, 16, 26, 18 and 10 on March 24-28, then 8, 24
and 16 on March 29-31, 20 on April 1-2, 16 and 8 on April 3-4, and 5
on April 5-10, then 16, 8, 8, 5, and 8 on April 11-15.

Dr. Tony Phillips of Spaceweather.com posted this animation captured
by NASA's SDO showing sunspot AR3245 splitting:

https://www.spaceweather.com/images2023/07mar23/splitup.gif

AR3245 is seen in the SE quadrant (lower left).

OK1HH wrote:

"The most interesting phenomenon in the last seven days was the X2
class solar flare in the AR3234 sunspot group. Flare peaked on 3
March at 1752 UTC, which caused the shortwave fade over the Americas
at frequencies up to 30 MHz.

"The G1-class geomagnetic disturbance on 4 and 5 March was triggered
by CMEs from the M8.6-class flare of 28 February, despite the fact
that the particle cloud was not heading directly toward Earth.

"Activity in the growing sunspot groups AR3242 and AR3245, as well
as the action of a setting, long, narrow, and closing coronal hole
in the northwestern solar disk, were key to the subsequent
evolution.

"Today, March 9, a CME from the M5.8-class solar flare of March 6 at
0229 UTC appears to be arriving at Earth. This is evidenced by this
morning's (March 9) increase in solar wind particle concentration,
which is a fairly good precursor for a subsequent increase in solar
wind speed and enhancement in geomagnetic activity.

"After the disturbance subsides, quieter conditions and a
continuation of the current level of solar activity is expected."

Gene, N9TF in Tennessee wrote, concerning openings on March 8-9:

"I am usually the little pistol on the sidelines watching stations,
either on my waterfall, pskreporter, or DX Maps working the 6M DX.

"Well, the opening to VK4 yesterday late afternoon/evening, found
this station in the thick of things...FINALLY!

"I was tipped off by my brother N9PGG Greg in FM05 around 2200 UTC
in a text message, that he was receiving FK8HA on 6m FT8, and a
little later he saw stations in Alabama working VK4MA. I decoded
FK8HA a couple times around 2230 UTC on 3/8/2023 but only -20 and
just a couple sporadic decodes. I was watching DX maps and saw the
path from VK to grids just to the south of me on fire.

"I started CQing around 2230 UTC and saw that I was hitting XE2KK
with a +4 on pskreporter, and two other XE. That looked like a good
E opening to the correct path to VK4 if I had enough signal to ride
the TEP. (Was it TEP?)

"Finally, around 2342 UTC I decoded VK4MA at -13, and Paul was now
being decoded consistently here and getting stronger. I started
calling him at about 2345, and at 0007 UTC 3/9/2023 I got a reply
R-19, sent my RR73 and Paul moved on to the next caller. I thought I
was in the log...NOT!

"I noticed two callers after me, AB4IQ, Paul had finished with 73. I immediately hit what I thought was TX4 (a text string in WSJT-x) to
send RRR this time but hit TX2 for a few transmissions until I
caught that mistake. Finally, 16 minutes of sending RRR, Paul
responded with 73. Relief and then satisfaction set in. I'm in the
log! Paul peaked at +1 for a while during the opening.

"Antenna is just a 3 element (A50-3S) only up 18' above ground,
behind our backyard shed 120' from the house/shack. I have 125' of
DXE400MAX buried from the house to the back of the shed to a coax
distribution box with grounding and surge arrestors. Then 40' of
LM4-400 from the box to the antenna. The rig is a K3S, and I run 85
watts output on FT8. So, of those 85 watts out at the rig, the
antenna is seeing about 45-50 watts, at only 18' above ground, it's
about 7' lower than the minimum optimal 25' above ground for 6m.

"The 6m antenna set up is temporarily permanent at this time. It is
kluged together with a 5' tripod anchored into the ground with 2,
24" nails in each leg. The mast is 4 sections of 4' army surplus
tent poles. I have an eve bracket at 10' to hold the whole thing
secure, snug but not completely tight so I can hand turn the mast
section above. Tent poles are just slid together, and the joints are
duct taped. Like I said...kluged together! It has just recently
survived 75mph straight wind gusts for 2 hours straight.

"Anyway, just wanted to give a 'successful' report from EM66IJ. It
was fun finally being able to participate in an opening!"

A british tabloid explains astrophysics:

https://bit.ly/3L8NHja

Dr. Tamitha Skov, WX6SWW, releases videos to her Patreon subscribers
12 hours before the general release.

I got this early Friday at 0800 UTC, and since the ARRL will not
release this more than 12 hours after the release to her
subscribers, I am able to post it here:

https://youtu.be/TJBsOuohrgE

Send your tips, reports, observations, questions, and comments to k7ra@arrl.net. When reporting observations, don't forget to tell us
which mode you were operating.

For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation and the ARRL Technical Information
Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals . For an
explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere .

An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation . More good
information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/ .

Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL
bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins .

Sunspot numbers for March 2 through 8, 2023 were 103, 133, 122, 137,
173, 191, and 146, with a mean of 143.6. 10.7 cm flux was 168.8,
190.9, 181.6, 179.8, 188, 180.3, and 181.9, with a mean of 181.6.
Estimated planetary A indices were 9, 22, 15, 22, 15, 11, and 8,
with a mean of 14.6. Middle latitude A index was 8, 16, 10, 17, 11,
7, and 6, with a mean of 10.7.
NNNN
/EX

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* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

XPost: rec.radio.shortwave, rec.radio.info

SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP010
ARLP010 Propagation de K7RA

ZCZC AP10
QST de W1AW
Propagation Forecast Bulletin 10 ARLP010

From Tad Cook, K7RA

Seattle, WA March 8, 2024
To all radio amateurs

SB PROP ARL ARLP010
ARLP010 Propagation de K7RA

Until March 6, new sunspot groups emerged daily over the past
reporting week, February 29 through March 6.

One new sunspot group appeared every day on February 29 through
March 3, then two new groups on March 4 and another on March 5.

It seems odd, but average daily sunspot number was about the same
(changing from 106.4 to 106.7), but the average daily solar flux had
a substantial drop, from 175 to 147.4.

Average daily planetary A index was up from 8.4 to 10, while middle
latitude numbers rose from 7.4 to 8.

The March 3 planetary A index was 29. Spaceweather.com reported a G2 geomagnetic storm at 0930 UTC. On March 7 they said NOAA expects a
minor storm on March 9.

The solar flux forecast sees a short term peak at 180 on March 21-23
and another on April 17-19.

Predicted solar flux is 140 on March 8-9, 145 on March 10-12, then
140 and 135 on March 13-14, then 170 on March 15-16, then 165, 160,
170 and 175 on March 17-20, 180 on March 21-23, 175 on March 24-25,
170 on March 26-27, 160 on March 28-29, then 165 and 145 on March
30-31, then 140 on April 1-2, 135 on April 3-8, and 140, 160, 170,
170, 165 and 160 on April 9-14.

Predicted planetary A index is 8 on March 8-10, 5 on March 11-23,
then 15, 12, 12, 5, 10, and 8 on March 24-29, and 5 on March 30
through April 5, then 12 and 10 on April 6-7, and 5 on April 8
through the middle of the month and beyond.

Weekly Commentary on the Sun, the Magnetosphere, and the Earth's
Ionosphere - March 7, 2024 from F.K. Janda, OK1HH:

"Active region AR3590 which swelled to the largest of the 25th solar
cycle in February and where the largest flare was observed, was
located on the northwestern limb of the disk in early March,
whereupon it was observed by the Mars rover Perseverance from Jezero
Crater (Jezero means Lake in Czech).

"From the solar flare on February 28, the CME arrived at Earth on
March 3 - one day later than predicted. It triggered a G3 class
geomagnetic disturbance, which began by developing a positive storm
phase with a significant increase in MUF. It continued over the next
three days in a negative phase with a significant decrease in MUF
and an increase in attenuation, especially in the polar regions.

"Neither major flares nor major geomagnetic activity are expected in
the next few days. Therefore, propagation will gradually improve to
slightly above average. We expect a significant improvement around
the equinox. This time, however, the improvement will be more
pronounced as solar activity will gradually increase in the
meantime."

The Vernal Equinox occurs at 0306 UTC, March 20 and marks the
beginning of Spring in the Northern Hemisphere and the Autumnal
Equinox in the Southern Hemisphere.

Max Planck Institute for Solar System Research is looking for
volunteers:

https://bit.ly/4a43yZk

From DailyMotion, an August 2022 solar video:

https://bit.ly/3v0RARw

Space.com article about the April 8 solar eclipse:

https://bit.ly/3PdXnKl

Eclipse missions:

https://stardate.org/podcast/2024-03-07

An article about solar dynamo behavior during a Grand Solar Minima:

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-024-55317-w

From LiveScience, is the peak of Solar Cycle 25 already here?

https://bit.ly/3Taxe0p

A quiet Sun:

https://bit.ly/3T98PIh

Thanks to W7WKR for this article about Maritime Radio Historical
Society Station KPH:

https://bit.ly/49Fpjiz

[Station K6KPH also transmits W1AW Qualifying Run transmissions: https://www.radiomarine.org/mrhs-stations/blog-post-title-four-r3jyw
-Ed.]

Send your tips, reports, observations, questions, and comments to k7ra@arrl.net. When reporting observations, don't forget to tell us
which mode you were operating.

For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation and the ARRL Technical Information
Service web page at, http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals . For
an explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere .

An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation . More good
information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/ .

Also, check this QST article about Solar Indices:

https://bit.ly/3Rc8Njt

Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL
bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins .

Sunspot numbers for February 29 through March 6 2024 were 107, 120,
91, 90, 113, 121, and 105, with a mean of 106.7. 10.7 cm flux was
164.1, 152.8, 152.3, 145.5, 139.9, 141.5, and 136, with a mean of
147.4. Estimated planetary A indices were 4, 9, 5, 29, 10, 7, and 6,
with a mean of 10. Middle latitude A index was 4, 9, 3, 20, 8, 7,
and 5, with a mean of 8.
NNNN
/EX

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