• ARLP009 Propagation de K7RA

    From ARRL Web site@21:1/5 to All on Fri Mar 4 09:10:51 2022
    XPost: rec.radio.shortwave, rec.radio.info

    SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP009
    ARLP009 Propagation de K7RA

    ZCZC AP09
    QST de W1AW
    Propagation Forecast Bulletin 9 ARLP009
    From Tad Cook, K7RA
    Seattle, WA March 4, 2022
    To all radio amateurs

    SB PROP ARL ARLP009
    ARLP009 Propagation de K7RA

    Solar activity was weaker this reporting week (February 24 through
    March 2) with average daily sunspot numbers weakening from 54.3 to
    44, but average daily solar flux rising slightly from 95.4 to 98.5.

    Geomagnetic numbers were moderate. Average daily planetary A index
    declined from 9.6 to 7.3, and middle latitude index from 7.3 to 5.6.

    Predicted solar flux is 110 on March 4, 108 on March 5-7, then 106,
    104 and 100 on March 8-10, 99 on March 11-13, 98 on March 14, 95 on
    March 15-16, then 96, 97, 98 and 99 on March 17-20, 100 on March
    21-22, then 101 and 100 on March 23-24, 102 on March 25-26, then 99
    and 102 on March 27-28, 105 on March 29-31, 102 on April 1-2, 101 on
    April 3-4, then 100 on April 5-6, and 99 on April 7-9.

    Predicted planetary A index is 12 on March 4-6, 10 on March 7, 5 on
    March 8-10, then 10, 12, 8, 5 and 8 on March 11-15, 5 on March
    16-17, 10 on March 18, 15 on March 19-21, 7 on March 22-24, then 5
    and 10 on March 25-26, 12 on March 27-28, 8 on March 29-30, 12 on
    March 31, 15 on April 1-2, then 5 on April 3-6, then 18, 15 and 8 on
    April 7-9.

    Here is the weekly commentary from OK1HH:

    "The decline in solar activity in the second half of February might
    have surprised us if it were not for the information about the
    increased eruptive activity on the far side of the Sun. The farside
    sunspots images were taken mainly by the STEREO-A spacecraft,
    starting with the huge farside explosion, when the spacecraft
    recorded a spectacular coronal mass ejection (CME) appearing in the
    late hours of 15 February.

    "One day later Solar and Heliospheric Observatory (SOHO) gave us a
    better view of the explosion on the far side. SOHO coronagraphs have
    recorded the most dramatic CME in recent years. The activity
    observed beyond the eastern edge of the solar disk looked promising
    several times, but after the spot groups actually came out, we
    experienced only occasional eruptions of class C.

    "The Earth's magnetic field activity fluctuated irregularly and
    attempts to predict further developments failed. Conditions for
    shortwave propagation began to improve in early March, but this was
    mainly due to seasonal changes."

    Here is a link to see a new telescope:

    https://bit.ly/3ICJ5O6

    Check out the Solar Orbiter from European Space Agency:

    https://www.esa.int/Science_Exploration/Space_Science/Solar_Orbiter

    Jeff, WA2BOT, in Connecticut wrote on March 2:

    "Wow!

    "10 Meters Long Path from East Coast USA to the Far East was amazing
    today!

    "I noticed 10 meters was open to Europe at 1143Z when I first
    checked band conditions.

    "Operating on FT8 from Grid FN32, between 1310 GMT to 1348 GMT using
    FT8. During the opening I worked: BD7MXA, VR2XYL, VR2ZXP, VR2UBC,
    VR2XRW, VR2CH, JA7QVI, and 12 other stations in Japan.

    "Solar Cycle 25 is just getting started and 10 meters is again,
    WOW!"

    See stunning loops of plasma:

    https://bit.ly/35OpX0V

    Here is information about the termination event:

    https://bit.ly/3KgQrqU

    This is from a 2020 paper on "Overlapping Magnetic Activity Cycles
    and the Sunspot Number," and now the paper's authors have announced
    the termination event between Solar Cycles 24 and 25 has arrived:

    https://bit.ly/35KqfpJ

    If you would like to make a comment or have a tip for our readers,
    please email the author at, k7ra@arrl.net .

    For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation and the ARRL Technical Information
    Service web page at, http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals. For
    an explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere.

    An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation. More good
    information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/.

    Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL
    bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins .

    Sunspot numbers for February 24 through March 2, 2022 were 23, 22,
    22, 48, 65, 62, and 66, with a mean of 44. 10.7 cm flux was 92.3,
    96.2, 96.5, 96.9, 99, 99.3, and 109.5, with a mean of 98.5.
    Estimated planetary A indices were 7, 8, 3, 13, 8, 8, and 4, with a
    mean of 7.3. Middle latitude A index was 6, 7, 1, 11, 5, 6, and 3,
    with a mean of 5.6.
    NNNN
    /EX

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  • From ARRL Web site@21:1/5 to All on Fri Mar 3 14:53:42 2023
    XPost: rec.radio.shortwave, rec.radio.info

    SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP009
    ARLP009 Propagation de K7RA

    ZCZC AP09
    QST de W1AW
    Propagation Forecast Bulletin 9 ARLP009
    From Tad Cook, K7RA
    Seattle, WA March 3, 2023
    To all radio amateurs

    SB PROP ARL ARLP009
    ARLP009 Propagation de K7RA

    This was a busy week for geomagnetic storms. A solar wind stream
    from an equatorial hole and a CME blew geomagnetic numbers seemingly
    off the scale, with the planetary A index on Monday hitting 94.
    Aurora was visible as far south as 40 degrees latitude. Imagine a
    line running from Reno, Nevada through Provo, Utah then Denver, then
    the Kansas-Nebraska state line, Quincy, Illinois, Dayton, Ohio and Philadelphia.

    This week the source of the 10.7 cm solar flux, the DRAO observatory
    at Penticton, British Columbia, was again saturated by solar wind on
    February 25 and the measurement was 279.3. NOAA corrected this to
    152, which I thought was a bit too low. The other recent saturation
    was on February 17 at 343.1, but for some reason NOAA let this
    stand.

    I corrected it in this bulletin to 165, which was that morning's
    1800 UTC reading:

    https://services.swpc.noaa.gov/text/daily-solar-indices.txt

    This week we saw two new sunspot groups appear on February 23,
    another on the following day, another on February 27, on February 28
    one more, two more on March 1, and another on March 2.

    Average daily sunspot number rose from 107 to 126.3, but average
    daily solar flux declined from 162.4 to 158.2.

    Average daily planetary A index rose from 10.6 to 27.7.

    Over the next few weeks it appears that solar flux values should hit
    a peak around March 17-18.

    Predicted solar flux is 165 March 3-5, 170 and 175 on March 6-7, 180
    on March 8-9, 165 on March 10-12, 170 on March 13-15, 175 on March
    16, 180 on March 17-18, then 175, 170 and 165 on March 19-21, 160 on
    March 22-23, 155 on March 24-26, 150 on March 27-28, then 145 on
    March 29-30, then 140, 145, 150, 155 and 160 on March 31 through
    April 4, then 165 on April 5-8, and 170 on April 9-11.

    Predicted planetary A index is 5, 12, 20, 18, 16 and 8 on March 3-8,
    5 on March 9-14, then 15, 8, 8, 5, 8 and 15 on March 15-20, 5 on
    March 21-23, then 12, 16, 56, 32, 16 and 10 on March 24-29, 8 on
    March 30-31, then 16, 18, 15 and 8 on April 1-4, and 5 on April
    5-10.

    Note the predicted A index of 56 and 32 on March 26-27, suggest a
    return of this week's disturbance in the next solar rotation.

    Here is a Newsweek report about radio blackout:

    https://bit.ly/3YsJREJ

    A story from Sky & Telescope:

    https://bit.ly/3ZbC1As

    Click past all the offers and pop-ups to view this article:

    https://bit.ly/3ymZrqR

    That report is from Western Washington, where I live. Unfortunately
    the sky was overcast, but observers in Eastern Washington were able
    to see the aurora. Remember that many of the aurora images you see
    were from cameras with a long exposure time, which makes them much
    brighter than what you see with unassisted vision.

    Thanks to spaceweather.com for this NASA movie of sunspot group
    AR3234 growing as it comes over our Sun's eastern limb:

    https://bit.ly/3J1IIiJ

    Spaceweather.com also reported that the average sunspot number for
    February was among the highest of the last 10 years.

    Here is data on Solar Cycle 25 progress:

    https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/solar-cycle-progression

    Geomagnetic activity forecast for the period March 3-9, 2023:

    "Quiet: March 3-5, 9
    Unsettled: March 4-6, 8-9
    Active: March 6-7
    Minor storm: possible March 6-7

    "At February 27, we recorded the highest geomagnetic activity since
    2008. At Budkov observatory, the three last K indices of this day
    were at level 6. Over the next few days we expect geomagnetic
    activity decrease. Until Sunday, March 5, we expect mostly quiet
    conditions. More unsettled conditions are expected between Sunday,
    March 5, and Thursday, March 9.

    "Between March 6-7, active conditions with likely storming event is
    possible. Wednesday, March 7, we expect unsettled conditions.

    "Tomas Bayer, Institute of Geophysics of the ASCR, Prague, Budkov
    observatory (BDV)."

    Weekly Commentary on the Sun, the Magnetosphere, and the Earth's
    Ionosphere March 3-9, 2023 from F.K. Janda, OK1HH:

    "A week ago, we observed an increase in the size and flare activity
    of sunspot group AR3234 in the northeast of the solar disk. But more interesting was the activity in the northwestern quadrant, where a
    magnetic filament associated with the relatively little noticeable
    sunspot AR3229 erupted on February 24. It set off a chain reaction
    in which the filament lifted off and cut through the solar
    atmosphere at 1949 UTC.

    "In AR3229 a long-duration M3-class solar flare (LDE) at 2030 UTC,
    with a CME, partially directed toward Earth. At the same time,
    gaseous material flowed from an equatorial coronal hole in the solar atmosphere. Earth was hit by two CMEs on February 27 and 28. The
    arrival of the first one was followed by a G1 to G2 class
    geomagnetic storm, while the second was followed by a G3 class
    storm.

    "In the ever-growing sunspot group AR3234, already in the
    northwestern solar disk, an M8.6-class solar flare with a possible
    weak CME was observed at 1750 UTC on 28 February.

    "Simultaneously, the Dellinger effect knocked out shortwave links at frequencies up to 30 MHz around the Pacific Ocean with a duration up
    to one hour.

    "The CME is expected to arrive at Earth perhaps as late as March 4,
    delivering only a glancing blow to the Earth's magnetic field.
    Starting on March 4, a minor G1-class geomagnetic storm is likely.
    Solar activity will not decrease, as another active region in the
    southeastern solar disk will emerge in the meantime."

    Here is a conversation about 6 meters:

    "Gents, some 6M DX to report here at KM0T.

    "Last few days, February 25-27, there was some DX worked locally so
    I was trying to keep an eye on things. Then we got some aurora from
    some flare impacts, and sure enough on the 27th got a few ZL and VK
    decodes, lots of the Midwest worked some, but too scattered for me.
    Also decoded FK8CP, who I have been chasing a card from a 2014 CW
    contact.

    "So Tuesday afternoon the 28th, was at the radio doing other shack
    items when I saw a FT8 decode from VK4HJ at 2306 UTC working a W9
    station. Proceeded to call him and worked at 2309 UTC with his -10
    signal. Worked VK4WTJ at 2315 UTC with him coming in at -15.

    "I then started to see decodes from FK8CP and FK8HA on and off for
    the next 15 minutes. I worked FK8HA in RG37 with his -18 digs at
    2344 UTC, I received a -20 report, took about 4 minutes once I got
    his attention.

    "During this whole time, I was calling FK8CP on and off between
    trying others when they popped up. VK4MA came in at 2351 UTC with
    his -09 digs. FK8CP was calling CQ WI all the time, but with FT8 you
    can still answer, so I kept thinking why is he calling for
    Wisconsin? Then figured that it was 'West Indies' (lol). He finally
    relented and I worked him on FT8 around 0009 UTC with -13 sig report
    from him.

    "The whole thing about New Caledonia is that I worked FK8CP on 6M in
    2014 on CW, but forgot back then to try for a card. Going through my
    logs for 6M DXCC showed the errors of my ways and I started to send
    cards back around 2020 since he was not LoTW. First one got returned
    around 6 months later, the post master said he did not know why,
    perhaps a typhoon. Then I tried again, but no answer for a long
    time. Got returned again, about a year later. I thought perhaps he
    was a SK, but his web page on QRZ did not leave any other contact
    info other than regular mail.

    "I forgot about it for a long time until I decoded him a few days
    ago. I checked his QRZ page and it said due to Covid-19, mail has
    been an issue for a very long time. So I got my card out and
    readdressed a new envelope, went to the post office this morning and
    mailed the card again. Wow, then I worked him that same day on FT8!
    9 years later - too funny!

    "73, Mike, KM0T.

    "PS - Definitely F2, Not strong, but in and out. No Es to the SW
    that I could tell. I worked VK and ZL on SSB 10 meters earlier,
    about 2200 UTC with 80W. That band was in good shape and quiet, had
    a 20 minute chat with a ZL with no QSB."

    I (K7RA) asked, "When there is a geomagnetic storm and we see
    openings on 6 meters, is it always due to auroral propagation?"

    The response from Mike King, KM0T, to K7RA:

    "Tad, in my experience on 6M, aurora gives your standard aurora
    propagation early on during the actual aurora. Northern latitude
    Midwest and NE - NW stations, with the typical auroral sound to SSB
    and CW.

    "Then later that same night we can get auroral-E skip, which may or
    may not sound like aurora. Very typical to work Alaska later at
    night after an aurora or auroral Es (at least from my location).

    "Then after a night of aurora, I have always been on the lookout the
    next day for F2/TEP/Chordal hop. When the flux is hovering around
    160 or so, and there is really no F2 at 50 MHz from the Midwest, an
    Aurora the previous day means that we got hit with a CME and the
    whole thing could still be charged up. Thus when we get full
    sunlight, I have seen many times F2/TEP propagation from the Midwest
    that I would not normally get. It lasts just that one day typically
    unless we get hit with more from the Sun.

    "From here in the Midwest it's East or West F2 to Caribbean, Africa,
    Indian Ocean, South America and Oceania. I don't believe I have seen
    it to EU the next day. (If you're in Texas, SW - SE, even better
    for you - but they get that TEP much more than us...location,
    location, location.)

    "I have worked Scandinavia over the pole path a few times at
    nighttime during an aurora via aurora-Es or F2, could never really
    tell. So if E-skip it would be multi hop like a summertime day, but
    had an auroral quality to those contacts. In my mind I always called
    aurora enhanced F2.

    "For me, having a decent aurora with flux being around 160, I feel
    it's one of the best clues I get for looking for when 6M might do
    wild things the next day. Throw this coming summertime auroras in
    during the 6M E-skip season, those days after an aurora might be
    crazy!

    "73 Mike, KM0T"

    Here is a response from Jon Jones, N0JK:

    "Tad, Mike:

    "Agree with Mike's comments and good summary.

    "The aurora geomagnetic activity can increase F-layer MUF,
    especially when in the sunlight. Sometimes during an aurora F2 can
    appear. The more common scenario is the one Mike describes. Aurora
    during the night and F2 propagation the next day. That is what
    happened Monday February 27. Tuesday was some left over F2, K still
    elevated.

    "Yesterday (March 1) the K index around 2. I copied Pipe, CE3SX for
    4 FT8 sequences on 50.313 MHz at 2111 UTC. No luck with a contact.
    Saw him send K0SIX (EN35) 'RR73.'

    "Yes and left over F2 the 2nd day after the aurora like yesterday,
    is normally only North South Propagation for me (Midwest) over the
    TEP zone, which I worked one CE station for fun, decoded a bunch of
    LUs, CX and CE, but had to leave for hockey practice."

    Jon Jones added at 2035 UTC on Thursday:

    "6 Meters popped open to Ecuador early in the afternoon March 2 on
    F2. I was at work, able to take a break around 1910 UTC. Set up from
    car - 1/4 wave whip and 10 watt MFJ-9406 radio. Many very loud
    decodes on FT8 from Ecuador. Called several stations. At 1925 UTC
    HC1DX called me on FT8 and we completed. Received a '-17 dB' report.
    N0LL/P was on from rare grid EN01 and worked several in Ecuador.
    Around 1900 UTC seems to be a good time frame for 6 Meter F2 to the
    south."

    The phone portion of the ARRL DX Contest is this weekend.

    http://www.arrl.org/arrl-dx

    Send your tips, reports, observations, questions and comments to
    k7ra@arrl.net. When reporting observations, don't forget to tell us
    which mode you were operating.

    For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation and the ARRL Technical Information
    Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals . For an
    explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere .

    An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation . More good
    information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/ .

    Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL
    bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins .

    Sunspot numbers for February 23 through March 1 2023 were 108, 130,
    129, 120, 192, 100, and 105, with a mean of 126.3. 10.7 cm flux was
    148.2, 164.1, 152, 159, 161.2, 160.9, and 162, with a mean of 158.2.
    Estimated planetary A indices were 22, 6, 10, 26, 94, 28, and 8,
    with a mean of 27.7. Middle latitude A index was 16, 4, 9, 18, 60,
    19, and 6, with a mean of 18.9.
    NNNN
    /EX

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  • From ARRL Web site@21:1/5 to All on Fri Mar 1 14:48:00 2024
    XPost: rec.radio.shortwave, rec.radio.info

    SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP009
    ARLP009 Propagation de K7RA

    ZCZC AP09
    QST de W1AW
    Propagation Forecast Bulletin 9 ARLP009
    From Tad Cook, K7RA
    Seattle, WA March 1, 2024
    To all radio amateurs

    SB PROP ARL ARLP009
    ARLP009 Propagation de K7RA

    "ASWFC GEOMAGNETIC DISTURBANCE WARNING ISSUED AT 2208 UTC/29
    FEBRUARY 2024 BY THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE.

    "A filament eruption was observed at 28/0855UT from the solar
    southeast quadrant. The associated CME has been determined to
    contain an Earth-directed component, with an arrival to Earth's
    magnetosphere at 02/1100 UTC +/- 12 hours. G1 geomagnetic conditions
    are expected.

    "INCREASED GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY EXPECTED DUE TO CORONAL MASS
    EJECTION FROM 02-03 MARCH 2024."

    Seven new sunspot groups emerged this week, four on February 23, one
    on February 25, another on February 26 and one more on February 28.

    Solar activity increased this reporting week, February 22-28,
    compared to the week before. Average daily sunspot number rose from
    84.4 to 108.4, and solar flux from 164 to 175.

    Geomagnetic conditions were quiet, though the numbers rose.
    Planetary A index went from 4.4 to 8.4, and middle latitude numbers
    from 3.3 to 7.4.

    The predicted solar flux is 160, 155, and 160 on March 1-3, 165 on
    March 4-5, 160 and 165 on March 6-7, 165 on March 8-9, 168 on March
    10, then 165 on March 11-12, 160 on March 13-14, then 168 and 172 on
    March 15-16, then 175, 175 and 178 on March 17-19, 180 on March
    20-24, and 175 on March 25-26, then 180 and 175 on March 27-28, 170
    on March 29-30, 172 on March 31 to April 1, 170 on April 2, and 165
    on April 3-5.

    The predicted planetary A index is 8, 12, 12 and 10 on March 1-4,
    then 5 on March 5-23, then 15, 12 and 12 on March 24-26, and 5 on
    March 27 to mid-April.

    Spaceweather.com reported on giant sunspot AR3590: "In only 23
    hours spanning February 21-22, the active region unleashed three
    powerful X-class solar flares (X1.8, X1.7 and X6.3). The X6.3 flare
    is the strongest of Solar Cycle 25, so far, and the most powerful
    flare since the great solar storms of September 2017."

    Because there were no CMEs, there were no geomagnetic storms, but
    extreme ultraviolet radiation ionized the top of Earth's atmosphere
    and caused several shortwave blackouts over Hawaii and Australia on
    February 21-22.

    Sunspot group AR3590 is the largest of the current solar cycle.

    Weekly Commentary on the Sun, the Magnetosphere, and the Earth's
    Ionosphere - February 29, 2024 from OK1HH:

    "Over the past seven days, we have seen the deflection of an active
    region of AR3590 on the Sun, 760 millionths of the size of the solar
    disk. On February 25, it already occupied an area of 1450
    millionths, making it the largest group of spots so far since the
    beginning of the 25th cycle. It produced its largest and extra
    proton flares on February 21-22, including three X-class flares in
    23 hours. The largest of these, X6.3 on 22 February, with a maximum
    at 2324 UT, was the most important flare since the beginning of
    Solar Cycle 25.

    "Proton flares were no exception and caused an absorption in the
    polar cap (PCA). The first of these was recorded on 9 February in
    the already setting region AR3575. At the same time, there was a
    region AR3576 in the southeast of the solar disk, which will rise
    again in the next few days, so we do not have to worry about a
    decrease in solar activity.

    "With the exception of the unsettled days of February 25-27, the
    geomagnetic field was mostly calm. We expect a similar pattern in
    the coming weeks. Ideally, the mostly calm development could last
    until the Spring Equinox. If this happens, shortwave propagation
    conditions will be mostly above average."

    This weekend is the ARRL International DX SSB contest. For details
    see:

    https://www.arrl.org/arrl-dx

    Some articles about solar basics:

    https://www.ktvh.com/news/weather-wise/weather-wise-sunspots

    https://bit.ly/49AmNKf

    https://bit.ly/3V0biHJ

    https://bit.ly/3wE1Orx

    https://star-hunter.ru/en/sunspots-2024-02-28/

    Popular Science article about a Solar Minima:

    https://www.popsci.com/science/sun-quiet/

    I do not trust the data or the correlations in this article, but
    there is some interesting content here:

    https://bit.ly/48Ablxc

    Latest video from Dr. Tamitha Skov, WX6SWW:

    https://youtu.be/V-PQSkYYEB4

    Send your tips, reports, observations, questions and comments to
    k7ra@arrl.net. When reporting observations, don't forget to tell us
    which mode you were operating.

    For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation and the ARRL Technical Information
    Service web page at, http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals . For
    an explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere .

    An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation . More good
    information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/ .

    Also, check this QST article about Solar Indices:

    https://bit.ly/3Rc8Njt

    Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL
    bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins .

    Sunspot numbers for February 22 through 28 2024 were 46, 116, 106,
    114, 133, 103, and 127, with a mean of 106.4. 10.7 cm flux was
    173.3, 172.9, 179.2, 180.8, 171.7, 168.3, and 179.1, with a mean of
    175. Estimated planetary A indices were 6, 3, 7, 13, 11, 13, and 6,
    with a mean of 8.4. Middle latitude A index was 6, 2, 6, 14, 10, 9,
    and 5, with a mean of 7.4.
    NNNN
    /EX

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