"Millennials are shattering the oldest rule in politics
Western conservatives are at risk from generations of voters who are
no longer moving to the right as they age"
“If you are not a liberal at 25, you have no heart. If you are
not a conservative at 35 you have no brain.†So said Winston Churchill. Or US president John Adams. Or perhaps King Oscar II of
Sweden. Variations of this aphorism have circulated since the 18th
century, underscoring the well-established rule that as people grow
older, they tend to become more conservative.
The pattern has held remarkably firm. By my calculations, members of Britain’s “silent generationâ€, born between 1928 and 1945, were
five percentage points less conservative than the national average at
age 35, but around five points more conservative by age 70. The
“baby boomer†generation traced the same path, and “Gen Xâ€,
born between 1965 and 1980, are now following suit.
Millennials — born between 1981 and 1996 — started out on the same
trajectory, but then something changed. The shift has striking
implications for the UK’s Conservatives and US Republicans, who can no longer simply rely on their base being replenished as the years pass."
"Let’s start with age effects, and the oldest rule in politics: people become more conservative with age. If millennials’ liberal inclinations are merely a result of this age effect, then at age 35
they too should be around five points less conservative than the
national average, and can be relied upon to gradually become more conservative. In fact, they’re more like 15 points less
conservative, and in both Britain and the US are by far the least conservative 35-year-olds in recorded history."
https://www.ft.com/content/c361e372-769e-45cd-a063-f5c0a7767cf4
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