"A weird economy may give way to recession — or not"

"The U.S. economy is throttled by inflation, volatile markets and weaker activity, all suggesting growth is softening but hasn’t fallen off of a
cliff — yet.

Even still, consumer spending and job creation remain robust,
contributing to what Axios’ Neil Irwin recently called “the great weirdness” of the U.S. economic status quo.

Why it matters: That same weirdness has opened a gulf between what
official data reflects and the perception of everyday consumers —
relatively flush with cash but ravaged by white-hot prices eating into
spending power.

The irony is that consumers, though in a glum mood, are keeping growth
and inflation afloat by continuing to spend. That, in turn, has
emboldened companies to pass that along in higher prices.

Also, the labor market is as tight as it's ever been, awash in unfilled positions (hello Great Recession), and the economy is generating
above-average jobs growth despite spiking prices.

Driving the news: U.S. gross domestic product figures due this Thursday
may show that the economy posted its second consecutive quarter of
contraction — satisfying the textbook definition of recession even if officials are loath to deem it such.

Even if GDP posts a negative print this week, it’s unlikely to settle
the raging recession debate, not least of which because it could take
months or longer for the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) to
make a formal declaration.

The NBER’s criteria is a bit different from conventional metrics of what constitutes a recession.

With unemployment still historically low and consumers still opening
their wallets with reckless abandon, the NBER’s more stringent
benchmarks haven’t been met (as far as we know).

The NBER’s verdict may not be conclusive, if it comes at all. For
example, in November 2001, the organization declared a contraction began
in March, but didn’t call its end until … July 2003."
[snip]

Once again for those who missed it the first time:
"With unemployment still historically low and consumers still opening
their wallets with reckless abandon......."

TB

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)