"Voters See a Bad Economy, Even if They’re Doing OK"
"Voters See a Bad Economy, Even if They’re Doing OK
A New York Times/Siena poll shows remarkable pessimism despite the
labor market’s resilience. That could be costly for the Democrats, and the economy.
By Ben Casselman and Lydia DePillis
July 15, 2022
The fastest inflation in four decades has Americans feeling dour about
the economy, even as their own finances have, so far, held up
relatively well.
Just 10 percent of registered voters say the U.S. economy is “good†or “excellent,†according to a New York Times/Siena
College poll — a remarkable degree of pessimism at a time when wages are rising and the unemployment rate is near a 50-year low. But the
rapidly rising cost of food, gas and other essentials is wiping out
pay increases and eroding living standards.
Americans’ grim outlook is bad news for President Biden and congressional Democrats heading into this fall’s midterm elections, given that 78 percent of voters say inflation will be “extremely important†when they head to the polls."
"It could be bad news for the economy as well. One long-running index
of consumer sentiment hit a record low in June, and other surveys
likewise show Americans becoming increasingly nervous about both their
own finances and the broader economy.
Economists have long studied the role of consumer sentiment, which can
be driven by media narratives and indicators unrepresentative of the
broader economy, like certain grocery prices or shortages of
particular goods. At least in theory, economic pessimism can become self-fulfilling, as consumers pull back their spending, leading to
layoffs and, ultimately, to a recession."
[snip]
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/07/15/business/economy/inflation-economy-polling.html
IOW if the retrumplicans sing and dance hard enough they might
get their wish--a recession, of sorts. In our life time two things
have driven the economy far more than any other force: increasing
population and improving technology. On top of that it looks like
we're coming out of the pandemic ahead of the rest of the world. If we actually make it there I'm expecting one damn fine recession. As a
nation we're like Barbie. Shit damn, we have all the toys.
This also helps explain why no one here is actually suffering or even knows anyone who is really suffering. When you stop and look at
what's happening all around you we're doing pretty damn good.
I went out to pick up groceries this morning. Ahead of me I had a big brand new pontoon boat being hauled toward the coast by a big
shiny pickup. The guy next to me had another big truck and a trailer
full of nice ATVs. When I made it to the store the big parking lot
next door was full of kids getting ready for a parade. You know what?
None of those people looked like they were suffering. Judging by its
parking lot Walmart is doing just fine too.
Again, for emphasis:
"Economists have long studied the role of consumer sentiment, which
can be driven by media narratives and indicators unrepresentative of
the broader economy, like certain grocery prices or shortages of
particular goods. At least in theory, economic pessimism can become self-fulfilling, as consumers pull back their spending, leading to
layoffs and, ultimately, to a recession.""
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Adw772km7PQ
Walmart may be doing well because their stuff is generally cheaper,
and I know a few people who don't eat ribeye as often as they used to.
While I agree that self-fulfilling prophecies are real things,
inflation and its consequences are not just perceptions - they are
real, too.
"Voters See a Bad Economy, Even if They’re Doing OK"
"Voters See a Bad Economy, Even if They’re Doing OK
A New York Times/Siena poll shows remarkable pessimism despite the labor market’s resilience. That could be costly for the Democrats, and the economy.
By Ben Casselman and Lydia DePillis
July 15, 2022
The fastest inflation in four decades has Americans feeling dour about
the economy, even as their own finances have, so far, held up relatively well.
Just 10 percent of registered voters say the U.S. economy is “good” or “excellent,” according to a New York Times/Siena College poll — a remarkable degree of pessimism at a time when wages are rising and the unemployment rate is near a 50-year low. But the rapidly rising cost of
food, gas and other essentials is wiping out pay increases and eroding
living standards.
Americans’ grim outlook is bad news for President Biden and
congressional Democrats heading into this fall’s midterm elections,
given that 78 percent of voters say inflation will be “extremely important” when they head to the polls."
"It could be bad news for the economy as well. One long-running index of consumer sentiment hit a record low in June, and other surveys likewise
show Americans becoming increasingly nervous about both their own
finances and the broader economy.
Economists have long studied the role of consumer sentiment, which can
be driven by media narratives and indicators unrepresentative of the
broader economy, like certain grocery prices or shortages of particular goods. At least in theory, economic pessimism can become
self-fulfilling, as consumers pull back their spending, leading to
layoffs and, ultimately, to a recession."
[snip]
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/07/15/business/economy/inflation-economy-polling.html
IOW if the retrumplicans sing and dance hard enough they might get
their wish--a recession, of sorts. In our life time two things have
driven the economy far more than any other force: increasing population
and improving technology. On top of that it looks like we're coming out
of the pandemic ahead of the rest of the world. If we actually make it
there I'm expecting one damn fine recession. As a nation we're like
Barbie. Shit damn, we have all the toys.
This also helps explain why no one here is actually suffering or
even knows anyone who is really suffering. When you stop and look at
what's happening all around you we're doing pretty damn good.
I went out to pick up groceries this morning. Ahead of me I had a
big brand new pontoon boat being hauled toward the coast by a big shiny pickup. The guy next to me had another big truck and a trailer full of
nice ATVs. When I made it to the store the big parking lot next door was
full of kids getting ready for a parade. You know what? None of those
people looked like they were suffering. Judging by its parking lot
Walmart is doing just fine too.
Again, for emphasis:
"Economists have long studied the role of consumer sentiment, which can
be driven by media narratives and indicators unrepresentative of the
broader economy, like certain grocery prices or shortages of particular goods. At least in theory, economic pessimism can become
self-fulfilling, as consumers pull back their spending, leading to
layoffs and, ultimately, to a recession.""
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Adw772km7PQ
TB
Technobarbarian wrote:
"Voters See a Bad Economy, Even if They’re Doing OK"
"Voters See a Bad Economy, Even if They’re Doing OK
A New York Times/Siena poll shows remarkable pessimism despite the
labor market’s resilience. That could be costly for the Democrats,
and the economy.
By Ben Casselman and Lydia DePillis
July 15, 2022
The fastest inflation in four decades has Americans feeling dour about
the economy, even as their own finances have, so far, held up
relatively well.
Just 10 percent of registered voters say the U.S. economy is
“good†or “excellent,†according to a New York Times/Siena
College poll — a remarkable degree of pessimism at a time when wages >> are rising and the unemployment rate is near a 50-year low. But the
rapidly rising cost of food, gas and other essentials is wiping out
pay increases and eroding living standards.
Americans’ grim outlook is bad news for President Biden and
congressional Democrats heading into this fall’s midterm elections, >> given that 78 percent of voters say inflation will be “extremely
important†when they head to the polls."
"It could be bad news for the economy as well. One long-running index
of consumer sentiment hit a record low in June, and other surveys
likewise show Americans becoming increasingly nervous about both their
own finances and the broader economy.
Economists have long studied the role of consumer sentiment, which can
be driven by media narratives and indicators unrepresentative of the
broader economy, like certain grocery prices or shortages of
particular goods. At least in theory, economic pessimism can become
self-fulfilling, as consumers pull back their spending, leading to
layoffs and, ultimately, to a recession."
[snip]
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/07/15/business/economy/inflation-economy-polling.html
IOW if the retrumplicans sing and dance hard enough they might
get their wish--a recession, of sorts. In our life time two things
have driven the economy far more than any other force: increasing
population and improving technology. On top of that it looks like
we're coming out of the pandemic ahead of the rest of the world. If we
actually make it there I'm expecting one damn fine recession. As a
nation we're like Barbie. Shit damn, we have all the toys.
This also helps explain why no one here is actually suffering or
even knows anyone who is really suffering. When you stop and look at
what's happening all around you we're doing pretty damn good.
I went out to pick up groceries this morning. Ahead of me I had a
big brand new pontoon boat being hauled toward the coast by a big
shiny pickup. The guy next to me had another big truck and a trailer
full of nice ATVs. When I made it to the store the big parking lot
next door was full of kids getting ready for a parade. You know what?
None of those people looked like they were suffering. Judging by its
parking lot Walmart is doing just fine too.
Again, for emphasis:
"Economists have long studied the role of consumer sentiment, which
can be driven by media narratives and indicators unrepresentative of
the broader economy, like certain grocery prices or shortages of
particular goods. At least in theory, economic pessimism can become
self-fulfilling, as consumers pull back their spending, leading to
layoffs and, ultimately, to a recession.""
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Adw772km7PQ
----------------------------------------------------------
Lucky Lopez is a car dealer who has been in the business for about 20
years. In recent meetings with bankers, where he bids on repossessed
vehicles before they go to auction, he has noticed some common characteristics of the defaulted loans. Most of the loans on recently repossessed cars originated during 2020 and 2021, whereas origination
dates are normally scattered because people fall on hard times at
different times; loan-to-value ratios, or the amount financed relative
to the value of the vehicle, are around 140%, versus a more normal
80%; and many of the loans were extended to buyers who had temporary
pops in income during the pandemic. Those monthly incomes
fell—sometimes by half—as pandemic stimulus programs stopped, and now they look even worse on an inflation-adjusted basis and as the prices
of basics in particular are climbing.
...
Part of the problem is that some consumers’ incomes were temporarily
high as the pandemic brought about debt forbearance, pandemic stimulus checks, enhanced unemployment benefits, and, in some cases, forgiven
loans from the Paycheck Protection Program. Lopez says he recently
bought a Bentley, McLaren and two Aston Martins—all purchased by
buyers using PPP money as down payments, and all repossessed after few
or no monthly payments.Another recent acquisition: a Silverado
repossessed from a borrower with a solid 700 credit score who made two payments.
Banks’ auto lending standards, meanwhile, went out the window, and
then lenders jumped on the bandwagon of overpaying for cars, Lopez
says. “Everybody thought the free gravy train would never end,” Lopez says.
...
--------------------------------------------------------------- https://www.barrons.com/articles/recession-cars-bank-repos-51657316562
Those trucks, boats, and ATVs you see may be about to be repossessed
as the free money runs out from "debt forbearance, pandemic stimulus
checks, enhanced unemployment benefits, and, in some cases, forgiven
loans from the Paycheck Protection Program".
The increased cost of food, gas, and other things is undeniable. I
also allege that it's undeniable that a significant number of people
were living paycheck to paycheck before inflation put them behind the
curve and forced them into a new level of frugality.
Walmart may be doing well because their stuff is generally cheaper,
and I know a few people who don't eat ribeye as often as they used to.
While I agree that self-fulfilling prophecies are real things,
inflation and its consequences are not just perceptions - they are
real, too.
On Sat, 16 Jul 2022 15:53:19 -0400, bfh <redydog@rye.net> wrote:
Walmart may be doing well because their stuff is generally cheaper,The bottom line seems to be - While the economy may not be that bad it
and I know a few people who don't eat ribeye as often as they used to.
While I agree that self-fulfilling prophecies are real things,
inflation and its consequences are not just perceptions - they are
real, too.
is in nowhere as good a shape as it was a few years ago - and it is
going in the wrong direction month by month.
Moreover, the traditional Democrat voters who depend on government
assistance are feeling the pinch - no matter the BS they are hearing.
Their EBT card empties a lot sooner now than it did two years ago and no amount of "The economy is doing good" changes that fact.
Abortion and personal pronouns rights seem to be the rallying cry of the Left, and that is a good thing because we conservatives know that
Clinton's 1992 presidential campaigns watchword: Its the economy, stupid! is still true today. Luckily for the Conservatives the
Liberals have forgotten that sage piece of advise and have moved on to personal pronouns and abortions. That BS effects only a small
percentage of the population, but the economy effects everyone.
MAGA!!!
Technobarbarian wrote:
"Voters See a Bad Economy, Even if They’re Doing OK"
"Voters See a Bad Economy, Even if They’re Doing OK
A New York Times/Siena poll shows remarkable pessimism despite the
labor market’s resilience. That could be costly for the Democrats,
and the economy.
By Ben Casselman and Lydia DePillis
July 15, 2022
The fastest inflation in four decades has Americans feeling dour about
the economy, even as their own finances have, so far, held up
relatively well.
Just 10 percent of registered voters say the U.S. economy is
“good†or “excellent,†according to a New York Times/Siena
College poll — a remarkable degree of pessimism at a time when wages >> are rising and the unemployment rate is near a 50-year low. But the
rapidly rising cost of food, gas and other essentials is wiping out
pay increases and eroding living standards.
Americans’ grim outlook is bad news for President Biden and
congressional Democrats heading into this fall’s midterm elections, >> given that 78 percent of voters say inflation will be “extremely
important†when they head to the polls."
"It could be bad news for the economy as well. One long-running index
of consumer sentiment hit a record low in June, and other surveys
likewise show Americans becoming increasingly nervous about both their
own finances and the broader economy.
Economists have long studied the role of consumer sentiment, which can
be driven by media narratives and indicators unrepresentative of the
broader economy, like certain grocery prices or shortages of
particular goods. At least in theory, economic pessimism can become
self-fulfilling, as consumers pull back their spending, leading to
layoffs and, ultimately, to a recession."
[snip]
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/07/15/business/economy/inflation-economy-polling.html
IOW if the retrumplicans sing and dance hard enough they might
get their wish--a recession, of sorts. In our life time two things
have driven the economy far more than any other force: increasing
population and improving technology. On top of that it looks like
we're coming out of the pandemic ahead of the rest of the world. If we
actually make it there I'm expecting one damn fine recession. As a
nation we're like Barbie. Shit damn, we have all the toys.
This also helps explain why no one here is actually suffering or
even knows anyone who is really suffering. When you stop and look at
what's happening all around you we're doing pretty damn good.
I went out to pick up groceries this morning. Ahead of me I had a >> big brand new pontoon boat being hauled toward the coast by a big
shiny pickup. The guy next to me had another big truck and a trailer
full of nice ATVs. When I made it to the store the big parking lot
next door was full of kids getting ready for a parade. You know what?
None of those people looked like they were suffering. Judging by its
parking lot Walmart is doing just fine too.
Again, for emphasis:
"Economists have long studied the role of consumer sentiment, which
can be driven by media narratives and indicators unrepresentative of
the broader economy, like certain grocery prices or shortages of
particular goods. At least in theory, economic pessimism can become
self-fulfilling, as consumers pull back their spending, leading to
layoffs and, ultimately, to a recession.""
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Adw772km7PQ
----------------------------------------------------------
Lucky Lopez is a car dealer who has been in the business for about 20
years. In recent meetings with bankers, where he bids on repossessed
vehicles before they go to auction, he has noticed some common characteristics of the defaulted loans. Most of the loans on recently repossessed cars originated during 2020 and 2021, whereas origination
dates are normally scattered because people fall on hard times at
different times; loan-to-value ratios, or the amount financed relative
to the value of the vehicle, are around 140%, versus a more normal 80%;
and many of the loans were extended to buyers who had temporary pops in income during the pandemic. Those monthly incomes fell—sometimes by half—as pandemic stimulus programs stopped, and now they look even worse
on an inflation-adjusted basis and as the prices of basics in particular
are climbing.
...
Part of the problem is that some consumers’ incomes were temporarily
high as the pandemic brought about debt forbearance, pandemic stimulus checks, enhanced unemployment benefits, and, in some cases, forgiven
loans from the Paycheck Protection Program. Lopez says he recently
bought a Bentley, McLaren and two Aston Martins—all purchased by buyers using PPP money as down payments, and all repossessed after few or no
monthly payments.Another recent acquisition: a Silverado repossessed
from a borrower with a solid 700 credit score who made two payments.
Banks’ auto lending standards, meanwhile, went out the window, and then lenders jumped on the bandwagon of overpaying for cars, Lopez says. “Everybody thought the free gravy train would never end,” Lopez says.
...
--------------------------------------------------------------- https://www.barrons.com/articles/recession-cars-bank-repos-51657316562
Those trucks, boats, and ATVs you see may be about to be repossessed as
the free money runs out from "debt forbearance, pandemic stimulus
checks, enhanced unemployment benefits, and, in some cases, forgiven
loans from the Paycheck Protection Program".
The increased cost of food, gas, and other things is undeniable. I also allege that it's undeniable that a significant number of people were
living paycheck to paycheck before inflation put them behind the curve
and forced them into a new level of frugality.
Walmart may be doing well because their stuff is generally cheaper, and
I know a few people who don't eat ribeye as often as they used to.
While I agree that self-fulfilling prophecies are real things, inflation
and its consequences are not just perceptions - they are real, too.
On 7/16/2022 12:53 PM, bfh wrote:
Technobarbarian wrote:
"Voters See a Bad Economy, Even if They’re Doing OK"
"Voters See a Bad Economy, Even if They’re Doing OK
A New York Times/Siena poll shows remarkable pessimism despite the
labor market’s resilience. That could be costly for the >>> Democrats, and the economy.
By Ben Casselman and Lydia DePillis
July 15, 2022
The fastest inflation in four decades has Americans feeling dour
about the economy, even as their own finances have, so far, held up
relatively well.
Just 10 percent of registered voters say the U.S. economy is
“good†or “excellent,†according to a New
York Times/Siena College poll  a remarkable degree of >>> pessimism at a time when wages are rising and the unemployment rate
is near a 50-year low. But the rapidly rising cost of food, gas and
other essentials is wiping out pay increases and eroding living
standards.
Americans’ grim outlook is bad news for President Biden and
congressional Democrats heading into this fall’s midterm >>> elections, given that 78 percent of voters say inflation will be
“extremely important†when they head to the polls."
"It could be bad news for the economy as well. One long-running
index of consumer sentiment hit a record low in June, and other
surveys likewise show Americans becoming increasingly nervous about
both their own finances and the broader economy.
Economists have long studied the role of consumer sentiment, which
can be driven by media narratives and indicators unrepresentative
of the broader economy, like certain grocery prices or shortages of
particular goods. At least in theory, economic pessimism can become
self-fulfilling, as consumers pull back their spending, leading to
layoffs and, ultimately, to a recession."
[snip]
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/07/15/business/economy/inflation-economy-polling.html
     IOW if the retrumplicans sing and dance hard enough they
might get their wish--a recession, of sorts. In our life time two
things have driven the economy far more than any other force:
increasing population and improving technology. On top of that it
looks like we're coming out of the pandemic ahead of the rest of
the world. If we actually make it there I'm expecting one damn fine
recession. As a nation we're like Barbie. Shit damn, we have all
the toys.
    This also helps explain why no one here is actually
suffering or even knows anyone who is really suffering. When you
stop and look at what's happening all around you we're doing pretty
damn good.
    I went out to pick up groceries this morning. Ahead of me >>> I had a big brand new pontoon boat being hauled toward the coast by
a big shiny pickup. The guy next to me had another big truck and a
trailer full of nice ATVs. When I made it to the store the big
parking lot next door was full of kids getting ready for a parade.
You know what? None of those people looked like they were
suffering. Judging by its parking lot Walmart is doing just fine too.
    Again, for emphasis:
"Economists have long studied the role of consumer sentiment, which
can be driven by media narratives and indicators unrepresentative
of the broader economy, like certain grocery prices or shortages of
particular goods. At least in theory, economic pessimism can become
self-fulfilling, as consumers pull back their spending, leading to
layoffs and, ultimately, to a recession.""
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Adw772km7PQ
----------------------------------------------------------
Lucky Lopez is a car dealer who has been in the business for about
20 years. In recent meetings with bankers, where he bids on
repossessed vehicles before they go to auction, he has noticed some
common characteristics of the defaulted loans. Most of the loans on
recently repossessed cars originated during 2020 and 2021, whereas
origination dates are normally scattered because people fall on hard
times at different times; loan-to-value ratios, or the amount
financed relative to the value of the vehicle, are around 140%,
versus a more normal 80%; and many of the loans were extended to
buyers who had temporary pops in income during the pandemic. Those
monthly incomes fell—sometimes by half—as pandemic stimulus >> programs stopped, and now they look even worse on an
inflation-adjusted basis and as the prices of basics in particular
are climbing.
...
Part of the problem is that some consumers’ incomes were
temporarily high as the pandemic brought about debt forbearance,
pandemic stimulus checks, enhanced unemployment benefits, and, in
some cases, forgiven loans from the Paycheck Protection Program.
Lopez says he recently bought a Bentley, McLaren and two Aston
Martins—all purchased by buyers using PPP money as down payments,
and all repossessed after few or no monthly payments.Another recent
acquisition: a Silverado repossessed from a borrower with a solid
700 credit score who made two payments.
Banks’ auto lending standards, meanwhile, went out the window, and >> then lenders jumped on the bandwagon of overpaying for cars, Lopez
says. “Everybody thought the free gravy train would never end,†>> Lopez says.
...
---------------------------------------------------------------
https://www.barrons.com/articles/recession-cars-bank-repos-51657316562
Those trucks, boats, and ATVs you see may be about to be repossessed
as the free money runs out from "debt forbearance, pandemic stimulus
checks, enhanced unemployment benefits, and, in some cases, forgiven
loans from the Paycheck Protection Program".
The increased cost of food, gas, and other things is undeniable. I
also allege that it's undeniable that a significant number of people
were living paycheck to paycheck before inflation put them behind
the curve and forced them into a new level of frugality.
Walmart may be doing well because their stuff is generally cheaper,
and I know a few people who don't eat ribeye as often as they used to.
While I agree that self-fulfilling prophecies are real things,
inflation and its consequences are not just perceptions - they are
real, too.
The idea of a strong dollar might seem like a farce to Americans after
annual inflation hit 9.1 percent in June and the price of gas and food
rose far faster. But the dollar has still become more valuable abroad
even as it yields less in goods and services at home.
Demand for the U.S. dollar in other countries has skyrocketed amid
concerns about a global recession caused by high inflation, the war in Ukraine and lingering COVID-19 supply shocks.
While the U.S. is not immune from those threats, the economy has held
up far stronger than other nations, making its currency more valuable abroad. The dollar is also used as the world’s reserve currency, meaning foreign individuals and companies will often boost their
holdings and conduct transactions in dollars to protect themselves
from financial shocks.
The strength of the U.S. economy has allowed the Federal Reserve to
boost interest rates at a much faster pace. That makes the U.S. dollar
more expensive to acquire — and more valuable in other countries.
“A stronger dollar benefits American households directly if they
want to travel to Europe, as the relative cost of everything is
cheaper. It also makes imports cheaper for American households and businesses,†explained Angel Talavera, head of European economics at Oxford Economics.
Half of American travelers say high prices kept them from traveling in
June, up 8 percentage points from the previous month, according to a
recent survey from Destination Analysts.
But favorable exchange rates blunt the impact of inflation, which has
risen at similar rates to the U.S. in Europe. Expedia data found that searches for summer trips to popular European destinations such as
Paris, Frankfurt, Brussels, Amsterdam and Dublin rose by double digits
last week. Copenhagen, Athens and Madrid saw similar increases in
lodging interest, according to Hotels.com.
https://thehill.com/business-a-lobbying/3561799-us-dollars-power-is-a-boon-to-americans-traveling-abroad/
Technobarbarian wrote:
"Voters See a Bad Economy, Even if They’re Doing OK"
"Voters See a Bad Economy, Even if They’re Doing OK
A New York Times/Siena poll shows remarkable pessimism despite the
labor market’s resilience. That could be costly for the Democrats,
and the economy.
By Ben Casselman and Lydia DePillis
July 15, 2022
The fastest inflation in four decades has Americans feeling dour about
the economy, even as their own finances have, so far, held up
relatively well.
Just 10 percent of registered voters say the U.S. economy is
“good†or “excellent,†according to a New York Times/Siena
College poll — a remarkable degree of pessimism at a time when wages >> are rising and the unemployment rate is near a 50-year low. But the
rapidly rising cost of food, gas and other essentials is wiping out
pay increases and eroding living standards.
Americans’ grim outlook is bad news for President Biden and
congressional Democrats heading into this fall’s midterm elections, >> given that 78 percent of voters say inflation will be “extremely
important†when they head to the polls."
"It could be bad news for the economy as well. One long-running index
of consumer sentiment hit a record low in June, and other surveys
likewise show Americans becoming increasingly nervous about both their
own finances and the broader economy.
Economists have long studied the role of consumer sentiment, which can
be driven by media narratives and indicators unrepresentative of the
broader economy, like certain grocery prices or shortages of
particular goods. At least in theory, economic pessimism can become
self-fulfilling, as consumers pull back their spending, leading to
layoffs and, ultimately, to a recession."
[snip]
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/07/15/business/economy/inflation-economy-polling.html
IOW if the retrumplicans sing and dance hard enough they might
get their wish--a recession, of sorts. In our life time two things
have driven the economy far more than any other force: increasing
population and improving technology. On top of that it looks like
we're coming out of the pandemic ahead of the rest of the world. If we
actually make it there I'm expecting one damn fine recession. As a
nation we're like Barbie. Shit damn, we have all the toys.
This also helps explain why no one here is actually suffering or
even knows anyone who is really suffering. When you stop and look at
what's happening all around you we're doing pretty damn good.
I went out to pick up groceries this morning. Ahead of me I had a >> big brand new pontoon boat being hauled toward the coast by a big
shiny pickup. The guy next to me had another big truck and a trailer
full of nice ATVs. When I made it to the store the big parking lot
next door was full of kids getting ready for a parade. You know what?
None of those people looked like they were suffering. Judging by its
parking lot Walmart is doing just fine too.
Again, for emphasis:
"Economists have long studied the role of consumer sentiment, which
can be driven by media narratives and indicators unrepresentative of
the broader economy, like certain grocery prices or shortages of
particular goods. At least in theory, economic pessimism can become
self-fulfilling, as consumers pull back their spending, leading to
layoffs and, ultimately, to a recession.""
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Adw772km7PQ
----------------------------------------------------------
Lucky Lopez is a car dealer who has been in the business for about 20
years. In recent meetings with bankers, where he bids on repossessed
vehicles before they go to auction, he has noticed some common characteristics of the defaulted loans. Most of the loans on recently repossessed cars originated during 2020 and 2021, whereas origination
dates are normally scattered because people fall on hard times at
different times; loan-to-value ratios, or the amount financed relative
to the value of the vehicle, are around 140%, versus a more normal 80%;
and many of the loans were extended to buyers who had temporary pops in income during the pandemic. Those monthly incomes fell—sometimes by half—as pandemic stimulus programs stopped, and now they look even worse
on an inflation-adjusted basis and as the prices of basics in particular
are climbing.
...
Part of the problem is that some consumers’ incomes were temporarily
high as the pandemic brought about debt forbearance, pandemic stimulus checks, enhanced unemployment benefits, and, in some cases, forgiven
loans from the Paycheck Protection Program. Lopez says he recently
bought a Bentley, McLaren and two Aston Martins—all purchased by buyers using PPP money as down payments, and all repossessed after few or no
monthly payments.Another recent acquisition: a Silverado repossessed
from a borrower with a solid 700 credit score who made two payments.
Banks’ auto lending standards, meanwhile, went out the window, and then lenders jumped on the bandwagon of overpaying for cars, Lopez says. “Everybody thought the free gravy train would never end,” Lopez says.
...
--------------------------------------------------------------- https://www.barrons.com/articles/recession-cars-bank-repos-51657316562
Those trucks, boats, and ATVs you see may be about to be repossessed as
the free money runs out from "debt forbearance, pandemic stimulus
checks, enhanced unemployment benefits, and, in some cases, forgiven
loans from the Paycheck Protection Program".
The increased cost of food, gas, and other things is undeniable. I also allege that it's undeniable that a significant number of people were
living paycheck to paycheck before inflation put them behind the curve
and forced them into a new level of frugality.
On 7/16/2022 12:53 PM, bfh wrote:
Technobarbarian wrote:
"Voters See a Bad Economy, Even if They’re Doing OK"
"Voters See a Bad Economy, Even if They’re Doing OK
A New York Times/Siena poll shows remarkable pessimism despite the
labor market’s resilience. That could be costly for the >>> Democrats, and the economy.
By Ben Casselman and Lydia DePillis
July 15, 2022
The fastest inflation in four decades has Americans feeling dour
about the economy, even as their own finances have, so far, held up
relatively well.
Just 10 percent of registered voters say the U.S. economy is
“good†or “excellent,†according to a New
York Times/Siena College poll  a remarkable degree of >>> pessimism at a time when wages are rising and the unemployment rate
is near a 50-year low. But the rapidly rising cost of food, gas and
other essentials is wiping out pay increases and eroding living
standards.
Americans’ grim outlook is bad news for President Biden and
congressional Democrats heading into this fall’s midterm >>> elections, given that 78 percent of voters say inflation will be
“extremely important†when they head to the polls."
"It could be bad news for the economy as well. One long-running
index of consumer sentiment hit a record low in June, and other
surveys likewise show Americans becoming increasingly nervous about
both their own finances and the broader economy.
Economists have long studied the role of consumer sentiment, which
can be driven by media narratives and indicators unrepresentative
of the broader economy, like certain grocery prices or shortages of
particular goods. At least in theory, economic pessimism can become
self-fulfilling, as consumers pull back their spending, leading to
layoffs and, ultimately, to a recession."
[snip]
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/07/15/business/economy/inflation-economy-polling.html
     IOW if the retrumplicans sing and dance hard enough they
might get their wish--a recession, of sorts. In our life time two
things have driven the economy far more than any other force:
increasing population and improving technology. On top of that it
looks like we're coming out of the pandemic ahead of the rest of
the world. If we actually make it there I'm expecting one damn fine
recession. As a nation we're like Barbie. Shit damn, we have all
the toys.
    This also helps explain why no one here is actually
suffering or even knows anyone who is really suffering. When you
stop and look at what's happening all around you we're doing pretty
damn good.
    I went out to pick up groceries this morning. Ahead of me >>> I had a big brand new pontoon boat being hauled toward the coast by
a big shiny pickup. The guy next to me had another big truck and a
trailer full of nice ATVs. When I made it to the store the big
parking lot next door was full of kids getting ready for a parade.
You know what? None of those people looked like they were
suffering. Judging by its parking lot Walmart is doing just fine too.
    Again, for emphasis:
"Economists have long studied the role of consumer sentiment, which
can be driven by media narratives and indicators unrepresentative
of the broader economy, like certain grocery prices or shortages of
particular goods. At least in theory, economic pessimism can become
self-fulfilling, as consumers pull back their spending, leading to
layoffs and, ultimately, to a recession.""
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Adw772km7PQ
----------------------------------------------------------
Lucky Lopez is a car dealer who has been in the business for about
20 years. In recent meetings with bankers, where he bids on
repossessed vehicles before they go to auction, he has noticed some
common characteristics of the defaulted loans. Most of the loans on
recently repossessed cars originated during 2020 and 2021, whereas
origination dates are normally scattered because people fall on hard
times at different times; loan-to-value ratios, or the amount
financed relative to the value of the vehicle, are around 140%,
versus a more normal 80%; and many of the loans were extended to
buyers who had temporary pops in income during the pandemic. Those
monthly incomes fell—sometimes by half—as pandemic stimulus >> programs stopped, and now they look even worse on an
inflation-adjusted basis and as the prices of basics in particular
are climbing.
...
Part of the problem is that some consumers’ incomes were
temporarily high as the pandemic brought about debt forbearance,
pandemic stimulus checks, enhanced unemployment benefits, and, in
some cases, forgiven loans from the Paycheck Protection Program.
Lopez says he recently bought a Bentley, McLaren and two Aston
Martins—all purchased by buyers using PPP money as down payments,
and all repossessed after few or no monthly payments.Another recent
acquisition: a Silverado repossessed from a borrower with a solid
700 credit score who made two payments.
Banks’ auto lending standards, meanwhile, went out the window, and >> then lenders jumped on the bandwagon of overpaying for cars, Lopez
says. “Everybody thought the free gravy train would never end,†>> Lopez says.
...
---------------------------------------------------------------
https://www.barrons.com/articles/recession-cars-bank-repos-51657316562
Those trucks, boats, and ATVs you see may be about to be repossessed
as the free money runs out from "debt forbearance, pandemic stimulus
checks, enhanced unemployment benefits, and, in some cases, forgiven
loans from the Paycheck Protection Program".
LOL Get out much? This is Saturday. All the repo guys are out
enjoying their weekend, along with everyone else. However it turns out someone is going to end up using all those repossessed rigs, along
with all the other people using our highways, parks and waterways.
The increased cost of food, gas, and other things is undeniable. I
also allege that it's undeniable that a significant number of people
were living paycheck to paycheck before inflation put them behind
the curve and forced them into a new level of frugality.
LOL "A new level of frugality" will be a novelty for anyone
under 30. For the rest of us a new level of frugality is still far
better than just about any point in the last century.
Inflation is real, but when I look at all of my expenses it
really ain't all that bad.
https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/gdp-per-capita-maddison-2020
"GDP per capita, 1820 to 2018
This data is adjusted for differences in the cost of living between countries, and for inflation. It is measured in constant 2011 international-$.
TB
Technobarbarian wrote:
On 7/16/2022 12:53 PM, bfh wrote:
Technobarbarian wrote:
"Voters See a Bad Economy, Even if They’re Doing OK"
"Voters See a Bad Economy, Even if They’re Doing OK
A New York Times/Siena poll shows remarkable pessimism despite the
labor market’s resilience. That could be costly for the >>>> Democrats, and the economy.
By Ben Casselman and Lydia DePillis
July 15, 2022
The fastest inflation in four decades has Americans feeling dour
about the economy, even as their own finances have, so far, held up
relatively well.
Just 10 percent of registered voters say the U.S. economy is
“good†or “excellent,†according to a New
York Times/Siena College poll  a remarkable degree of >>>> pessimism at a time when wages are rising and the unemployment rate
is near a 50-year low. But the rapidly rising cost of food, gas and
other essentials is wiping out pay increases and eroding living
standards.
Americans’ grim outlook is bad news for President Biden and
congressional Democrats heading into this fall’s midterm >>>> elections, given that 78 percent of voters say inflation will be
“extremely important†when they head to the polls."
"It could be bad news for the economy as well. One long-running
index of consumer sentiment hit a record low in June, and other
surveys likewise show Americans becoming increasingly nervous about
both their own finances and the broader economy.
Economists have long studied the role of consumer sentiment, which
can be driven by media narratives and indicators unrepresentative
of the broader economy, like certain grocery prices or shortages of
particular goods. At least in theory, economic pessimism can become
self-fulfilling, as consumers pull back their spending, leading to
layoffs and, ultimately, to a recession."
[snip]
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/07/15/business/economy/inflation-economy-polling.html
     IOW if the retrumplicans sing and dance hard enough they
might get their wish--a recession, of sorts. In our life time two
things have driven the economy far more than any other force:
increasing population and improving technology. On top of that it
looks like we're coming out of the pandemic ahead of the rest of
the world. If we actually make it there I'm expecting one damn fine
recession. As a nation we're like Barbie. Shit damn, we have all
the toys.
    This also helps explain why no one here is actually
suffering or even knows anyone who is really suffering. When you
stop and look at what's happening all around you we're doing pretty
damn good.
    I went out to pick up groceries this morning. Ahead of me >>>> I had a big brand new pontoon boat being hauled toward the coast by
a big shiny pickup. The guy next to me had another big truck and a
trailer full of nice ATVs. When I made it to the store the big
parking lot next door was full of kids getting ready for a parade.
You know what? None of those people looked like they were
suffering. Judging by its parking lot Walmart is doing just fine too.
    Again, for emphasis:
"Economists have long studied the role of consumer sentiment, which
can be driven by media narratives and indicators unrepresentative
of the broader economy, like certain grocery prices or shortages of
particular goods. At least in theory, economic pessimism can become
self-fulfilling, as consumers pull back their spending, leading to
layoffs and, ultimately, to a recession.""
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Adw772km7PQ
----------------------------------------------------------
Lucky Lopez is a car dealer who has been in the business for about
20 years. In recent meetings with bankers, where he bids on
repossessed vehicles before they go to auction, he has noticed some
common characteristics of the defaulted loans. Most of the loans on
recently repossessed cars originated during 2020 and 2021, whereas
origination dates are normally scattered because people fall on hard
times at different times; loan-to-value ratios, or the amount
financed relative to the value of the vehicle, are around 140%,
versus a more normal 80%; and many of the loans were extended to
buyers who had temporary pops in income during the pandemic. Those
monthly incomes fell—sometimes by half—as pandemic stimulus >>> programs stopped, and now they look even worse on an
inflation-adjusted basis and as the prices of basics in particular
are climbing.
...
Part of the problem is that some consumers’ incomes were
temporarily high as the pandemic brought about debt forbearance,
pandemic stimulus checks, enhanced unemployment benefits, and, in
some cases, forgiven loans from the Paycheck Protection Program.
Lopez says he recently bought a Bentley, McLaren and two Aston
Martins—all purchased by buyers using PPP money as down payments, >>> and all repossessed after few or no monthly payments.Another recent
acquisition: a Silverado repossessed from a borrower with a solid
700 credit score who made two payments.
Banks’ auto lending standards, meanwhile, went out the window, and >>> then lenders jumped on the bandwagon of overpaying for cars, Lopez
says. “Everybody thought the free gravy train would never end,†>>> Lopez says.
...
---------------------------------------------------------------
https://www.barrons.com/articles/recession-cars-bank-repos-51657316562
Those trucks, boats, and ATVs you see may be about to be repossessed
as the free money runs out from "debt forbearance, pandemic stimulus
checks, enhanced unemployment benefits, and, in some cases, forgiven
loans from the Paycheck Protection Program".
LOL Get out much? This is Saturday. All the repo guys are out
enjoying their weekend, along with everyone else. However it turns out
someone is going to end up using all those repossessed rigs, along
with all the other people using our highways, parks and waterways.
The increased cost of food, gas, and other things is undeniable. I
also allege that it's undeniable that a significant number of people
were living paycheck to paycheck before inflation put them behind
the curve and forced them into a new level of frugality.
LOL "A new level of frugality" will be a novelty for anyone
under 30. For the rest of us a new level of frugality is still far
better than just about any point in the last century.
Inflation is real, but when I look at all of my expenses it
really ain't all that bad.
It ain't bad for me, either, but we ain't a lot of other people.
https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/gdp-per-capita-maddison-2020
"GDP per capita, 1820 to 2018
This data is adjusted for differences in the cost of living between
countries, and for inflation. It is measured in constant 2011
international-$.
TB
bfh <redydog@rye.net> wrote:
Technobarbarian wrote:
On 7/16/2022 12:53 PM, bfh wrote:
Technobarbarian wrote:
"Voters See a Bad Economy, Even if They’re Doing OK"
"Voters See a Bad Economy, Even if They’re Doing OK
A New York Times/Siena poll shows remarkable pessimism despite the
labor market’s resilience. That could be costly for the
Democrats, and the economy.
By Ben Casselman and Lydia DePillis
July 15, 2022
The fastest inflation in four decades has Americans feeling dour
about the economy, even as their own finances have, so far, held up
relatively well.
Just 10 percent of registered voters say the U.S. economy is
“good†or “excellent,†according to a New
York Times/Siena College poll  a remarkable degree of
pessimism at a time when wages are rising and the unemployment rate
is near a 50-year low. But the rapidly rising cost of food, gas and
other essentials is wiping out pay increases and eroding living
standards.
Americans’ grim outlook is bad news for President Biden and
congressional Democrats heading into this fall’s midterm
elections, given that 78 percent of voters say inflation will be
“extremely important†when they head to the polls."
"It could be bad news for the economy as well. One long-running
index of consumer sentiment hit a record low in June, and other
surveys likewise show Americans becoming increasingly nervous about
both their own finances and the broader economy.
Economists have long studied the role of consumer sentiment, which
can be driven by media narratives and indicators unrepresentative
of the broader economy, like certain grocery prices or shortages of
particular goods. At least in theory, economic pessimism can become
self-fulfilling, as consumers pull back their spending, leading to
layoffs and, ultimately, to a recession."
[snip]
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/07/15/business/economy/inflation-economy-polling.html
     IOW if the retrumplicans sing and dance hard enough they
might get their wish--a recession, of sorts. In our life time two
things have driven the economy far more than any other force:
increasing population and improving technology. On top of that it
looks like we're coming out of the pandemic ahead of the rest of
the world. If we actually make it there I'm expecting one damn fine
recession. As a nation we're like Barbie. Shit damn, we have all
the toys.
    This also helps explain why no one here is actually
suffering or even knows anyone who is really suffering. When you
stop and look at what's happening all around you we're doing pretty
damn good.
    I went out to pick up groceries this morning. Ahead of me
I had a big brand new pontoon boat being hauled toward the coast by
a big shiny pickup. The guy next to me had another big truck and a
trailer full of nice ATVs. When I made it to the store the big
parking lot next door was full of kids getting ready for a parade.
You know what? None of those people looked like they were
suffering. Judging by its parking lot Walmart is doing just fine too. >>>>>
    Again, for emphasis:
"Economists have long studied the role of consumer sentiment, which
can be driven by media narratives and indicators unrepresentative
of the broader economy, like certain grocery prices or shortages of
particular goods. At least in theory, economic pessimism can become
self-fulfilling, as consumers pull back their spending, leading to
layoffs and, ultimately, to a recession.""
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Adw772km7PQ
----------------------------------------------------------
Lucky Lopez is a car dealer who has been in the business for about
20 years. In recent meetings with bankers, where he bids on
repossessed vehicles before they go to auction, he has noticed some
common characteristics of the defaulted loans. Most of the loans on
recently repossessed cars originated during 2020 and 2021, whereas
origination dates are normally scattered because people fall on hard
times at different times; loan-to-value ratios, or the amount
financed relative to the value of the vehicle, are around 140%,
versus a more normal 80%; and many of the loans were extended to
buyers who had temporary pops in income during the pandemic. Those
monthly incomes fellâ€â€sometimes by halfâ€â€as pandemic stimulus
programs stopped, and now they look even worse on an
inflation-adjusted basis and as the prices of basics in particular
are climbing.
...
Part of the problem is that some consumers’ incomes were >>>> temporarily high as the pandemic brought about debt forbearance,
pandemic stimulus checks, enhanced unemployment benefits, and, in
some cases, forgiven loans from the Paycheck Protection Program.
Lopez says he recently bought a Bentley, McLaren and two Aston
Martinsâ€â€all purchased by buyers using PPP money as down payments,
and all repossessed after few or no monthly payments.Another recent
acquisition: a Silverado repossessed from a borrower with a solid
700 credit score who made two payments.
Banks’ auto lending standards, meanwhile, went out the window, and
then lenders jumped on the bandwagon of overpaying for cars, Lopez
says. “Everybody thought the free gravy train would never end,â€Â
Lopez says.
...
---------------------------------------------------------------
https://www.barrons.com/articles/recession-cars-bank-repos-51657316562 >>>>
Those trucks, boats, and ATVs you see may be about to be repossessed
as the free money runs out from "debt forbearance, pandemic stimulus
checks, enhanced unemployment benefits, and, in some cases, forgiven
loans from the Paycheck Protection Program".
  LOL Get out much? This is Saturday. All the repo guys are out
enjoying their weekend, along with everyone else. However it turns out
someone is going to end up using all those repossessed rigs, along
with all the other people using our highways, parks and waterways.
The increased cost of food, gas, and other things is undeniable. I
also allege that it's undeniable that a significant number of people
were living paycheck to paycheck before inflation put them behind
the curve and forced them into a new level of frugality.
    LOL "A new level of frugality" will be a novelty for anyone
under 30. For the rest of us a new level of frugality is still far
better than just about any point in the last century.
    Inflation is real, but when I look at all of my expenses it
really ain't all that bad.
It ain't bad for me, either, but we ain't a lot of other people.
You saving $8.7 mil./year on your electric bill too?
https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/gdp-per-capita-maddison-2020
"GDP per capita, 1820 to 2018
This data is adjusted for differences in the cost of living between
countries, and for inflation. It is measured in constant 2011
international-$.
TB
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