On Monday, March 17, 2008 at 2:59:52 PM UTC+8, GreenDistantStar wrote:

On Mar 17, 2:49 pm, Renli <oliver.rich...@gmail.com> wrote:

Let me deal in units so it is very clear

Oh, this will be good.....

The top three banks hold many things, but their ABS's (mortgages) are
worth 150 units.

No, this won't do...let's use the real numbers.

All the money in all the banks in the USA is only 13 or 14 units.

Now before you go any further, what is your definition of 'money'
here? Are you talking about bank deposits from customers? ( which are
a bank's liabilities, not its assets). Bank deposits (liabilities) of
the top 3 US banks is about 1.35 trillion.

The total *assets* of the top 3 US banks is about 4.1 trillion.

The total mortgage debt of the US is about 10.7 trillion.

Also, we can say, the total value of all production in the USA is also about 13 or 14 units a year.

US GDP is around 14 trillion.

So where do you get the 150 units?

Sorry Ollie, your numbers are wrong by a factor of ten...at least.

If you're truly scientific, you'll re-look at the correct numbers, and
if they lead you to a different conclusion, you'll accept it. Or you
could whine about the numbers, their meaning and a whole bunch of
other stuff rather than admit you were wrong.

Now, look what happened to Bear Stearns Corp, which dealt in these securities- they lost 98% of their value. No, really - for every
dollar they are now worth 2 cents. "At $100/share, Bear Sterns was
worth $13 billion, today, worth $0.26 billion."

Yup, how dumb can you get? 12 months ago, their shares sold for $170.
Big losses on bad lending and JP Morgan gets the gold ring at $2 per
share *and* a Fed guarantee! Go buy some JP Morgan stock, I'd say!!

In other words, what will happen to those 150 units the top 3 banks
(alone) are holding?

Well, they'll be worth 3 units, of course. Since the remaining 2% of
150 is 3.

Nope. Most of the mortgages of the big banks are sound.

Bear Stearns came to halt initially due to a run. Runs usually start
when people panic; they become self-fulfilling prophecies. They often
start when some idiot starts yelling and telling as many people as he
can to run out and take their cash from a bank as soon as possible.

But wait, people in the USA have almost 14 units of money in the bank!

Your numbers are wrong... sorry Ollie. Running around trying to find
facts to fit your theories is definitely not scientific or rational.
Oh, and if you DO want to argue the numbers, I have all the cites you
want. You can do the same, of course?

Wow, if I were you, I'd take my money out NOW. Right now. Like, stop reading get in the car and hit th ATM in the middle of the fucking
night NOW.

Seeing as it's your advice, I would hope you were the first to rush
out and withdraw all your cash in the middle of the night. It's what
all smart investors are doing. Buy some cheap beer while you're at it.
Hey, gold is over $1,000 an ounce now. Happy days for the Richmans!
When am I coming over for dinner? Just not tuna again, eh Ollie?

Good luck.

Thanks, same to you.

GDS

"Let's roll!"

Okay.. just out of curiosity since i have been out of the loop for quite sometime.. assistance and clarity... o have not studied or check the US market for all it indicate between red and a top blue..or what it truly is as Walmart is closing so has
target K Mart and oh Sears i think....

most of the 100 years in business and serving.. than.. till 2000 came..

the probability that the stocks has to do with the Asian. MArket??? or what it was in 1990\s the full crash that most turned to few cents.. or JC PENNY\s worth..when most would have been lucrative in 2000... and the cycle of ...a recycle? Anyone...

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