Matchpoints. Opponents vulnerable.

You hold KT8.KJ9.K643.A95 (spades, hearts, diamonds, clubs).

LHO is dealer. The bidding goes:

(Pass) Pass (1D) Pass
(1S) Pass (2C) Pass
(2S) Pass (2NT) All Pass

The opponents are playing 4-card majors; 1NT would have been 12-14.
None of their bids were alerted, and thus you didn't ask the meanings.

a) What do you expect the opponents to hold?
b) What do you lead?

--
ais523

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In message <r3l57n$g2v$1@dont-email.me>, ais523 <ais523@nethack4.org>
writes

Matchpoints. Opponents vulnerable.

You hold KT8.KJ9.K643.A95 (spades, hearts, diamonds, clubs).

LHO is dealer. The bidding goes:

(Pass) Pass (1D) Pass
(1S) Pass (2C) Pass
(2S) Pass (2NT) All Pass

The opponents are playing 4-card majors; 1NT would have been 12-14.
None of their bids were alerted, and thus you didn't ask the meanings.

a) What do you expect the opponents to hold?
b) What do you lead?

RHO should have something like 1-3-5-4 and about 17-18 HCP. Any more,
and they'd be too afraid of 2C being passed when game was on. Any less
and 2NT would be an overbid in the light of LHO's bidding. I'd expect
LHO to have something like 6 spades, a singleton diamond and doubleton
club, and no more than 7 HCP.

I'd rather not have to lead at all. :) I think I'll try the spade Ten as
least likely to give away a trick, and hope that RHO doesn't have
singleton Q or J, when leading the King might have worked better.
--
John Hall
"If you haven't got anything nice to say about anybody, come
sit next to me."
Alice Roosevelt Longworth (1884-1980)

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Op 3-3-2020 om 11:41 schreef John Hall:

In message <r3l57n$g2v$1@dont-email.me>, ais523 <ais523@nethack4.org>
writes

Matchpoints. Opponents vulnerable.

You hold KT8.KJ9.K643.A95 (spades, hearts, diamonds, clubs).

LHO is dealer. The bidding goes:

(Pass) Pass (1D)  Pass
(1S)   Pass (2C)  Pass
(2S)   Pass (2NT) All Pass

The opponents are playing 4-card majors; 1NT would have been 12-14.
None of their bids were alerted, and thus you didn't ask the meanings.

a) What do you expect the opponents to hold?
b) What do you lead?

RHO should have something like 1-3-5-4 and about 17-18 HCP. Any more,
and they'd be too afraid of 2C being passed when game was on. Any less
and 2NT would be an overbid in the light of LHO's bidding. I'd expect
LHO to have something like 6 spades, a singleton diamond and doubleton
club, and no more than 7 HCP.

I'd rather not have to lead at all. :) I think I'll try the spade Ten as least likely to give away a trick, and hope that RHO doesn't have
singleton Q or J, when leading the King might have worked better.

Often I have seen minimum opening hands being bid this way
having one or even zero spades
Not my style
Probably not the best way to bid
But still

Co Wiersma

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On 03/03/2020 06:59 AM, Co Wiersma wrote:

Op 3-3-2020 om 11:41 schreef John Hall:

In message <r3l57n$g2v$1@dont-email.me>, ais523 <ais523@nethack4.org>
writes

Matchpoints. Opponents vulnerable.

You hold KT8.KJ9.K643.A95 (spades, hearts, diamonds, clubs).

LHO is dealer. The bidding goes:

(Pass) Pass (1D) Pass
(1S) Pass (2C) Pass
(2S) Pass (2NT) All Pass

The opponents are playing 4-card majors; 1NT would have been 12-14.
None of their bids were alerted, and thus you didn't ask the meanings.

a) What do you expect the opponents to hold?
b) What do you lead?

RHO should have something like 1-3-5-4 and about 17-18 HCP. Any more,
and they'd be too afraid of 2C being passed when game was on. Any less
and 2NT would be an overbid in the light of LHO's bidding. I'd expect
LHO to have something like 6 spades, a singleton diamond and doubleton
club, and no more than 7 HCP.

I'd rather not have to lead at all. :) I think I'll try the spade Ten
as least likely to give away a trick, and hope that RHO doesn't have
singleton Q or J, when leading the King might have worked better.

Often I have seen minimum opening hands being bid this way
having one or even zero spades
Not my style
Probably not the best way to bid
But still

Co Wiersma

I don't think it is so much as style as novices do this.

I'm not a huge fan of this sort of lead and I may be influenced by it
being a problem, but I lead the HK. Feels like if I go passive the
opponents will just knock out the minor suit honors on the way to 9+
tricks[4 diamonds, 3-4 clubs, major suit aces and possible spade finesse.

Playing the opponents for something like:

AJxxxx xx xx xxx x Axx AQJxx KQJx

but this lead could still work out if the opponents having the HQ
assuming partner has at least the HT.

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On Tuesday, March 3, 2020 at 5:48:05 AM UTC-5, John Hall wrote:

In message <r3l57n$g2v$1@dont-email.me>, ais523 <ais523@nethack4.org>
writes

Matchpoints. Opponents vulnerable.

You hold KT8.KJ9.K643.A95 (spades, hearts, diamonds, clubs).

LHO is dealer. The bidding goes:

(Pass) Pass (1D) Pass
(1S) Pass (2C) Pass
(2S) Pass (2NT) All Pass

The opponents are playing 4-card majors; 1NT would have been 12-14.
None of their bids were alerted, and thus you didn't ask the meanings.

a) What do you expect the opponents to hold?
b) What do you lead?

RHO should have something like 1-3-5-4 and about 17-18 HCP. Any more,
and they'd be too afraid of 2C being passed when game was on. Any less
and 2NT would be an overbid in the light of LHO's bidding. I'd expect
LHO to have something like 6 spades, a singleton diamond and doubleton
club, and no more than 7 HCP.

I'd rather not have to lead at all. :) I think I'll try the spade Ten as least likely to give away a trick, and hope that RHO doesn't have
singleton Q or J, when leading the King might have worked better.
--
John Hall
"If you haven't got anything nice to say about anybody, come
sit next to me."
Alice Roosevelt Longworth (1884-1980)

Maybe in practice players rebid rebid spades with hands that weak, but it's unplayable, as Terence Reese pointed out long ago. (With 6-8, give D preference rather than rebidding S.). The reason is that the jump rebid 3S must be kept up to strength:
Opener will pass only with both a misfit and minimum strength. So the partnership will be forced to 3NT or higher facing 15 shaped 1=3=5=4 or 0=3=5=5 .

Carl

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On Tuesday, March 3, 2020 at 12:41:29 AM UTC-8, ais523 wrote:

Matchpoints. Opponents vulnerable.

You hold KT8.KJ9.K643.A95 (spades, hearts, diamonds, clubs).

LHO is dealer. The bidding goes:

(Pass) Pass (1D) Pass
(1S) Pass (2C) Pass
(2S) Pass (2NT) All Pass

The opponents are playing 4-card majors; 1NT would have been 12-14.
None of their bids were alerted, and thus you didn't ask the meanings.

a) What do you expect the opponents to hold?
b) What do you lead?

a) RHO 16-18hcp in a 1345. or 1255 17hcp? hope LHO has 6 points and spades.
b) sK (2nd choice hK, 3rd hJ).

Unlikely for several reasons that declarer has the sA.
If partner has the sA, it's partner's only card so sK will drop declarer's singleton honor, I'll know all the cards, and no regrets.
If partner has the sQ this is also fine and puts declarer on the immediate spot.
If dummy has AQxxxx, or AJxxxx and declarer the Q, it's not so hot but not obviously terrible.
AQJxxx in dummy seems an improbable hand to stop in 2NT.

The hK most obviously wins in a layout like Travis' -- finding partner with Qxx... and an eventual spade entry. But then sK first is probably also ok.
The hK of course gains when it's right to pound hearts even though partner lacks an honor but has a minor suit entry - but how does that work? For example
not if dummy: AQxxxx xxx xx xx declarer: J AQx AQJxx QJ109 because declarer can win 8 tricks without clubs.
Maybe dummy: AQxxxx xxx x xxx declarer: x AQx AQ10xx KJ109? Not clear even with this carefully designed setup.

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ais523 wrote:

Matchpoints. Opponents vulnerable.

You hold KT8.KJ9.K643.A95 (spades, hearts, diamonds, clubs).

LHO is dealer. The bidding goes:

(Pass) Pass (1D) Pass
(1S) Pass (2C) Pass
(2S) Pass (2NT) All Pass

The opponents are playing 4-card majors; 1NT would have been 12-14.
None of their bids were alerted, and thus you didn't ask the meanings.

a) What do you expect the opponents to hold?

To me, the bidding here looked odd, so I decided that it was more likely
that the opponents had landed in a hole in their bidding system than
that they really had their bids (especially as I was holding 14 HCP).

Co Wiersma was correct about what had actually happened. RHO had a
minimum 1=4=4=4 hand, and the natural bidding system had no way to bid
it (diamonds then clubs is the smallest lie, as a 1NT rebid would show
15HCP). The 2NT rebid was probably a mistake. (LHO had a minimum
responding hand with 6 spades, probably not surprising.)

At the table, I was unaware of the full details of what had happened,
but assumed that the opponents had landed in a misfit and that their
bids were broadly shape-showing; also that the bidding was unlikely to
be replicated at other tables.

b) What do you lead?

With a holding like this, there are two issues: a) can you avoid giving
away a trick, b) is there a way to take an extra trick?

None of the suits are particularly good leads in the abstract. I
looking for a safe lead, the consensus seems to be that a spade lead is
broadly safe, on the basis that any spade honours are probably with
LHO and thus our King will get finessed anyway. As it happens, any
spade lead is equivalent on the actual hand; none loses a trick, and
none gains a trick either.

On the other hand, this is matchpoints, and the opponents are probably
in an unusual contract. If they have stronger hands, we have to try to
defeat it. If their hands are weaker, we probably have a partscore our
way, and badly need a penalty of 200 rather than just 100 to score well
on the board. So I looked for a more aggressive lead.

The situation in hearts is likely to be key to the hand. I think it's
possible to reason it out: LHO apparently has 6 spades (whereas RHO's
shape is less certain), and RHO doesn't seem concerned about hearts for notrump. So it's more likely that RHO has at least one high heart. That
means that to get all our tricks, we'll need to take a finesse towards
our own heart, and in particular leading the HK is very risky; in most
of the cases where it doesn't blow a trick immediately (by preventing
us sneaking a trick past the HA or HQ), the HJ would have done just as
well. My lead at the table was H9, which turned out to be safe but
didn't gain any additional tricks.

It turns out that partner had AT2 in hearts. Here's the full deal:

Me: KT8.KJ9.K643.A95
Dummy: AQ9765.764.T92.6
Partner: J32.AT2.Q7.JT843
Declarer: 4.Q853.AJ85.KQ72

A double-dummy computer analysis gave me a pretty interesting revelation
about the best lead on this particular hand (although I think it's a
good choice in general too, if you're looking for something aggressive).
The way in which it ends up working is pretty surprising, at least to
me, but I think the general principle could have been worked out at the
table (even if it wouldn't be immediately obvious why it ends up
helping!). I don't think we'd have found the winning defence at the
table, but it's nice to see it working on a computer after the fact.

I won't post it yet in case anyone wants to try to figure it out for
themself, but I'll post it in a few days.

--
ais523

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On Wednesday, March 11, 2020 at 11:21:35 AM UTC-4, ais523 wrote:

ais523 wrote:

Matchpoints. Opponents vulnerable.

You hold KT8.KJ9.K643.A95 (spades, hearts, diamonds, clubs).

LHO is dealer. The bidding goes:

(Pass) Pass (1D) Pass
(1S) Pass (2C) Pass
(2S) Pass (2NT) All Pass

The opponents are playing 4-card majors; 1NT would have been 12-14.
None of their bids were alerted, and thus you didn't ask the meanings.

a) What do you expect the opponents to hold?

To me, the bidding here looked odd, so I decided that it was more likely
that the opponents had landed in a hole in their bidding system than
that they really had their bids (especially as I was holding 14 HCP).

Co Wiersma was correct about what had actually happened. RHO had a
minimum 1=4=4=4 hand, and the natural bidding system had no way to bid
it (diamonds then clubs is the smallest lie, as a 1NT rebid would show 15HCP). The 2NT rebid was probably a mistake. (LHO had a minimum
responding hand with 6 spades, probably not surprising.)

At the table, I was unaware of the full details of what had happened,
but assumed that the opponents had landed in a misfit and that their
bids were broadly shape-showing; also that the bidding was unlikely to
be replicated at other tables.

b) What do you lead?

With a holding like this, there are two issues: a) can you avoid giving
away a trick, b) is there a way to take an extra trick?

None of the suits are particularly good leads in the abstract. I
looking for a safe lead, the consensus seems to be that a spade lead is broadly safe, on the basis that any spade honours are probably with
LHO and thus our King will get finessed anyway. As it happens, any
spade lead is equivalent on the actual hand; none loses a trick, and
none gains a trick either.

On the other hand, this is matchpoints, and the opponents are probably
in an unusual contract. If they have stronger hands, we have to try to
defeat it. If their hands are weaker, we probably have a partscore our
way, and badly need a penalty of 200 rather than just 100 to score well
on the board. So I looked for a more aggressive lead.

The situation in hearts is likely to be key to the hand. I think it's possible to reason it out: LHO apparently has 6 spades (whereas RHO's
shape is less certain), and RHO doesn't seem concerned about hearts for notrump. So it's more likely that RHO has at least one high heart. That
means that to get all our tricks, we'll need to take a finesse towards
our own heart, and in particular leading the HK is very risky; in most
of the cases where it doesn't blow a trick immediately (by preventing
us sneaking a trick past the HA or HQ), the HJ would have done just as
well. My lead at the table was H9, which turned out to be safe but
didn't gain any additional tricks.

It turns out that partner had AT2 in hearts. Here's the full deal:

Me: KT8.KJ9.K643.A95
Dummy: AQ9765.764.T92.6
Partner: J32.AT2.Q7.JT843
Declarer: 4.Q853.AJ85.KQ72

A double-dummy computer analysis gave me a pretty interesting revelation about the best lead on this particular hand (although I think it's a
good choice in general too, if you're looking for something aggressive).
The way in which it ends up working is pretty surprising, at least to
me, but I think the general principle could have been worked out at the
table (even if it wouldn't be immediately obvious why it ends up
helping!). I don't think we'd have found the winning defence at the
table, but it's nice to see it working on a computer after the fact.

I won't post it yet in case anyone wants to try to figure it out for themself, but I'll post it in a few days.

--
ais523

Apparently, Brits aren't taught S J Simons's rule for staying solvent: when you smell a misfit, stop bidding.

Carl

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