From
Timothy Chow@21:1/5 to
All on Tue Dec 14 09:08:50 2021
XGID=-BBB-BB-C-b-----Bbcea-b---:0:0:1:54:0:6:1:7:10
X:Player 2 O:Player 1
Score is X:0 O:6 7 pt.(s) match.
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O O | | O O O |
| X O O | | O O |
| O | | O |
| | | O |
| | | O |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| X | | |
| O X | | X X X X X |
| O X | | X X X X X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 90 O: 108 X-O: 0-6/7 Crawford
Cube: 1
X to play 54
In this position, XG 3-ply plays 8/4 6/1. For Stick's benefit, let
me explain that when I say that XG 3-ply plays 8/4 6/1, I mean that
XG 3-ply plays 8/4 6/1. If you force an XG 3-ply evaluation of
16/12 16/11 then it squeaks out on top, and in the rollout below,
the equity difference is even more pronounced. After 16/12 16/11,
O will hit with any 1 or 2 even if she can't cover, but X's five-point
board means his return hits are formidable.
Does the score make a difference? You might worry that volunteering
two blots will increase X's gammon losses. They do, slightly, but
not by much. As far as gammons are concerned, the most important
point is that 16/12 16/11 significantly increases X's gammon *wins*, essentially by forcing O to hit if she can and then picking up her
blots. So at a normal score, 16/12 16/11 is even more mandatory
than at DMP. But rollouts indicate that 16/12 16/11 wins enough more
games that it comes out on top even at gammon save.
1. Rollout¹ 16/12 16/11 eq:+0.292
Player: 63.79% (G:11.02% B:0.37%)
Opponent: 36.21% (G:3.11% B:0.08%)
Confidence: ±0.002 (+0.290..+0.294) - [100.0%]
2. Rollout¹ 16/7 eq:+0.227 (-0.065)
Player: 60.90% (G:6.50% B:0.16%)
Opponent: 39.10% (G:2.21% B:0.12%)
Confidence: ±0.002 (+0.225..+0.229) - [0.0%]
3. Rollout¹ 8/4 8/3 eq:+0.225 (-0.067)
Player: 61.06% (G:2.55% B:0.08%)
Opponent: 38.94% (G:1.88% B:0.00%)
Confidence: ±0.003 (+0.222..+0.228) - [0.0%]
4. Rollout¹ 8/4 6/1 eq:+0.210 (-0.082)
Player: 60.40% (G:1.46% B:0.03%)
Opponent: 39.60% (G:1.87% B:0.02%)
Confidence: ±0.003 (+0.207..+0.213) - [0.0%]
5. Rollout¹ 8/3 5/1 eq:+0.197 (-0.095)
Player: 59.76% (G:1.39% B:0.03%)
Opponent: 40.24% (G:2.50% B:0.02%)
Confidence: ±0.004 (+0.193..+0.201) - [0.0%]
6. Rollout¹ 8/3 6/2 eq:+0.194 (-0.098)
Player: 59.61% (G:1.21% B:0.02%)
Opponent: 40.39% (G:2.42% B:0.06%)
Confidence: ±0.004 (+0.190..+0.197) - [0.0%]
7. Rollout¹ 6/1 5/1 eq:+0.188 (-0.104)
Player: 59.29% (G:1.34% B:0.04%)
Opponent: 40.71% (G:2.52% B:0.00%)
8. Rollout¹ 6/2 6/1 eq:+0.187 (-0.105)
Player: 59.31% (G:1.00% B:0.02%)
Opponent: 40.69% (G:2.41% B:0.08%)
Confidence: ±0.004 (+0.184..+0.191) - [0.0%]
¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release, MET: Kazaross XG2
-----------
Gammon save
-----------
XGID=-BBB-BB-C-b-----Bbcea-b---:0:0:1:54:1:0:1:2:10
X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:1 O:0 2 pt.(s) match.
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O O | | O O O |
| X O O | | O O |
| O | | O |
| | | O |
| | | O |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| X | | |
| O X | | X X X X X |
| O X | | X X X X X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 90 O: 108 X-O: 1-0/2 Crawford
Cube: 1
X to play 54
1. Rollout¹ 16/12 16/11 eq:+0.210
Player: 64.24% (G:10.43% B:0.10%)
Opponent: 35.76% (G:3.77% B:0.23%)
Confidence: ±0.003 (+0.207..+0.212) - [100.0%]
2. Rollout¹ 8/4 8/3 eq:+0.179 (-0.030)
Player: 61.38% (G:2.17% B:0.02%)
Opponent: 38.62% (G:2.43% B:0.10%)
Confidence: ±0.004 (+0.175..+0.183) - [0.0%]
3. Rollout¹ 8/4 6/1 eq:+0.156 (-0.053)
Player: 60.59% (G:1.74% B:0.01%)
Opponent: 39.41% (G:2.77% B:0.12%)
Confidence: ±0.005 (+0.152..+0.161) - [0.0%]
¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release, MET: Kazaross XG2
---
Tim Chow
--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
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