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  • Late game cube action

    From Timothy Chow@21:1/5 to All on Fri Dec 10 21:29:16 2021
    XGID=-aBBBCD-A-a----A---c-cdc--:0:0:1:00:0:0:0:0:10

    X:Player 1 O:Player 2
    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | X | | O O O O |
    | | | O O O O |
    | | | O O O O |
    | | | O |
    | | | |
    | |BAR| |
    | | | |
    | | | X |
    | | | X X |
    | | | X X X X X |
    | O X | | X X X X X O |
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 80 O: 87 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 1
    X on roll, cube action

    ---
    Tim Chow

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From pepstein5@gmail.com@21:1/5 to Tim Chow on Sat Dec 11 12:59:50 2021
    On Saturday, December 11, 2021 at 2:29:18 AM UTC, Tim Chow wrote:
    XGID=-aBBBCD-A-a----A---c-cdc--:0:0:1:00:0:0:0:0:10

    X:Player 1 O:Player 2
    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | X | | O O O O |
    | | | O O O O |
    | | | O O O O |
    | | | O |
    | | | |
    | |BAR| |
    | | | |
    | | | X |
    | | | X X |
    | | | X X X X X |
    | O X | | X X X X X O |
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 80 O: 87 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 1
    X on roll, cube action

    A huge pass in my eyes. Massive threats against the two blots, we're ahead in the pipcount and,
    our opponent has a porous board if we are hit. To me, the choice is between D/P and TG. (You didn't say Jacoby).
    I don't think TG is really feasible. Quite a few sequences leave us being hit and then we can dance on a four point board.
    Getting both blots in the air is optimistic, and even then we only get 40% gammons.

    A confident D/P. But will Tricky Tim blindside us with a correct take?
    (If I'm wrong, I consider D/T to be the second most likely verdict.)

    Paul

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From Stick Rice@21:1/5 to peps...@gmail.com on Sat Dec 11 18:49:30 2021
    On Saturday, December 11, 2021 at 3:59:51 PM UTC-5, peps...@gmail.com wrote:
    On Saturday, December 11, 2021 at 2:29:18 AM UTC, Tim Chow wrote:
    XGID=-aBBBCD-A-a----A---c-cdc--:0:0:1:00:0:0:0:0:10

    X:Player 1 O:Player 2
    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | X | | O O O O |
    | | | O O O O |
    | | | O O O O |
    | | | O |
    | | | |
    | |BAR| |
    | | | |
    | | | X |
    | | | X X |
    | | | X X X X X |
    | O X | | X X X X X O |
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 80 O: 87 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 1
    X on roll, cube action
    A huge pass in my eyes. Massive threats against the two blots, we're ahead in the pipcount and,
    our opponent has a porous board if we are hit. To me, the choice is between D/P and TG. (You didn't say Jacoby).
    I don't think TG is really feasible. Quite a few sequences leave us being hit and then we can dance on a four point board.
    Getting both blots in the air is optimistic, and even then we only get 40% gammons.

    A confident D/P. But will Tricky Tim blindside us with a correct take?
    (If I'm wrong, I consider D/T to be the second most likely verdict.)

    Paul

    Among other things, I think you're undervaluing how strong the on roll player is even when something close to the worst (we are forced to hit loose on the ace point and the opponent hits back with a normal number) happens. This is clearly TG and the
    easiest way to tell is the amount of relief you feel as the player being cubed when you can happily insta pass.

    Stick

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From Timothy Chow@21:1/5 to All on Mon Dec 13 22:26:29 2021
    XGID=-aBBBCD-A-a----A---c-cdc--:0:0:1:00:0:0:0:0:10

    X:Player 1 O:Player 2
    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | X | | O O O O |
    | | | O O O O |
    | | | O O O O |
    | | | O |
    | | | |
    | |BAR| |
    | | | |
    | | | X |
    | | | X X |
    | | | X X X X X |
    | O X | | X X X X X O |
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 80 O: 87 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 1
    X on roll, cube action

    I cashed here, thinking that I had at best 15% gammons, and was
    surprised to see the rollout results.

    Analyzed in Rollout
    No double
    Player Winning Chances: 87.78% (G:20.22% B:0.55%)
    Opponent Winning Chances: 12.22% (G:0.67% B:0.02%)
    Double/Take
    Player Winning Chances: 87.55% (G:23.04% B:0.61%)
    Opponent Winning Chances: 12.45% (G:1.02% B:0.03%)

    Cubeful Equities:
    No double: +1.054
    Double/Take: +1.867 (+0.813)
    Double/Pass: +1.000 (-0.054)

    Best Cube action: Too good to double / Pass
    Percentage of wrong take needed to make the double decision right: 6.3%

    Rollout:
    1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
    Dice Seed: 271828
    Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
    Confidence No Double: ± 0.004 (+1.050..+1.059)
    Confidence Double: ± 0.009 (+1.858..+1.876)

    eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release

    ---
    Tim Chow

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From pepstein5@gmail.com@21:1/5 to Stick Rice on Tue Dec 14 06:40:12 2021
    On Sunday, December 12, 2021 at 2:49:31 AM UTC, Stick Rice wrote:
    On Saturday, December 11, 2021 at 3:59:51 PM UTC-5, peps...@gmail.com wrote:
    On Saturday, December 11, 2021 at 2:29:18 AM UTC, Tim Chow wrote:
    XGID=-aBBBCD-A-a----A---c-cdc--:0:0:1:00:0:0:0:0:10

    X:Player 1 O:Player 2
    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | X | | O O O O |
    | | | O O O O |
    | | | O O O O |
    | | | O |
    | | | |
    | |BAR| |
    | | | |
    | | | X |
    | | | X X |
    | | | X X X X X |
    | O X | | X X X X X O |
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 80 O: 87 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 1
    X on roll, cube action
    A huge pass in my eyes. Massive threats against the two blots, we're ahead in the pipcount and,
    our opponent has a porous board if we are hit. To me, the choice is between D/P and TG. (You didn't say Jacoby).
    I don't think TG is really feasible. Quite a few sequences leave us being hit and then we can dance on a four point board.
    Getting both blots in the air is optimistic, and even then we only get 40% gammons.

    A confident D/P. But will Tricky Tim blindside us with a correct take?
    (If I'm wrong, I consider D/T to be the second most likely verdict.)

    Paul
    Among other things, I think you're undervaluing how strong the on roll player is even when something close to the worst (we are forced to hit loose on the ace point and the opponent hits back with a normal number) happens. This is clearly TG and the
    easiest way to tell is the amount of relief you feel as the player being cubed when you can happily insta pass.

    Being able to assert so strongly with 100% confidence that a position is TG, when the margin is 0.05 and where some market gainers exist, is impressive (to me).
    I wonder whether this is one where Tim thinks that Stick must have bot-checked before posting.

    Paul

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From Timothy Chow@21:1/5 to All on Sun Sep 24 10:49:39 2023
    XGID=-ABBaDB-B---Aa-A--a-baccc-:0:0:1:00:0:0:0:0:10

    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | O X O | | O O O O O |
    | | | O O O O |
    | | | O O O |
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | |BAR| |
    | | | |
    | | | X |
    | | | X |
    | X | | X X X X |
    | X X | | X X O X X X |
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 86 O: 72 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 1
    X on roll, cube action

    ---
    Tim Chow

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From ah....Clem@21:1/5 to Timothy Chow on Sun Sep 24 11:43:01 2023
    On 9/24/2023 10:49 AM, Timothy Chow wrote:
    XGID=-ABBaDB-B---Aa-A--a-baccc-:0:0:1:00:0:0:0:0:10

    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
     +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
     | O     X        O |   |    O  O  O  O  O |
     |                  |   |    O     O  O  O |
     |                  |   |          O  O  O |
     |                  |   |                  |
     |                  |   |                  |
     |                  |BAR|                  |
     |                  |   |                  |
     |                  |   |    X             |
     |                  |   |    X             |
     |             X    |   | X  X     X  X    |
     | X           X    |   | X  X  O  X  X  X |
     +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count  X: 86  O: 72 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 1
    X on roll, cube action


    Is O's board so weak that it is correct for X to leave two homeboard
    blots? If so, it's clearly a cube. If not, then X only hits with 2s,
    41, 42, 43, and 31. That's 20 shots if I counted right. Not all of
    those lose the market since O has some counterplay, a race lead, and
    some blots to shoot at. But seems like enough to ship it.

    Looks like the game is headed towards either O being blitzed off the
    board or an exchange of hits if O survives the blitz. Her burried
    checkers make me think she'll lose the exchange of hits most of the
    time, so I'll say pass.

    D/P.

    --
    Ah....Clem
    The future is fun, the future is fair.

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From Timothy Chow@21:1/5 to All on Tue Sep 26 10:38:03 2023
    XGID=-ABBaDB-B---Aa-A--a-baccc-:0:0:1:00:0:0:0:0:10

    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | O X O | | O O O O O |
    | | | O O O O |
    | | | O O O |
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | |BAR| |
    | | | |
    | | | X |
    | | | X |
    | X | | X X X X |
    | X X | | X X O X X X |
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 86 O: 72 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 1
    X on roll, cube action

    Kudos to ah...clem for passing this one. It seemed to me that O
    had enough resources to take, but her dead checkers are a big
    problem (see variant).

    Analyzed in Rollout
    No double
    Player Winning Chances: 71.95% (G:22.90% B:1.60%)
    Opponent Winning Chances: 28.05% (G:6.39% B:0.14%)
    Double/Take
    Player Winning Chances: 72.31% (G:22.80% B:1.46%)
    Opponent Winning Chances: 27.69% (G:6.57% B:0.15%)

    Cubeful Equities:
    No double: +0.710 (-0.290)
    Double/Take: +1.091 (+0.091)
    Double/Pass: +1.000

    Best Cube action: Double / Pass

    Rollout:
    1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
    Dice Seed: 271828
    Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
    Confidence No Double: ± 0.006 (+0.704..+0.716)
    Confidence Double: ± 0.011 (+1.081..+1.102)

    eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

    -------
    Variant
    -------

    XGID=-ABBaDB-B---Aa-A--a-caccb-:0:0:1:00:0:0:0:0:10

    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | O X O | | O O O O O |
    | | | O O O O |
    | | | O O O |
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | |BAR| |
    | | | |
    | | | X |
    | | | X |
    | X | | X X X X |
    | X X | | X X O X X X |
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 86 O: 76 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 1
    X on roll, cube action

    Analyzed in Rollout
    No double
    Player Winning Chances: 71.02% (G:20.51% B:1.41%)
    Opponent Winning Chances: 28.98% (G:6.49% B:0.18%)
    Double/Take
    Player Winning Chances: 71.24% (G:21.74% B:1.40%)
    Opponent Winning Chances: 28.76% (G:7.79% B:0.27%)

    Cubeful Equities:
    No double: +0.675 (-0.325)
    Double/Take: +1.009 (+0.009)
    Double/Pass: +1.000

    Best Cube action: Double / Pass

    Rollout:
    1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
    Dice Seed: 271828
    Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
    Confidence No Double: ± 0.007 (+0.668..+0.682)
    Confidence Double: ± 0.009 (+1.000..+1.018)

    eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release


    ---
    Tim Chow

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From ah....Clem@21:1/5 to Timothy Chow on Tue Sep 26 12:04:20 2023
    On 9/26/2023 10:38 AM, Timothy Chow wrote:
    XGID=-ABBaDB-B---Aa-A--a-baccc-:0:0:1:00:0:0:0:0:10

    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
     +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
     | O     X        O |   |    O  O  O  O  O |
     |                  |   |    O     O  O  O |
     |                  |   |          O  O  O |
     |                  |   |                  |
     |                  |   |                  |
     |                  |BAR|                  |
     |                  |   |                  |
     |                  |   |    X             |
     |                  |   |    X             |
     |             X    |   | X  X     X  X    |
     | X           X    |   | X  X  O  X  X  X |
     +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count  X: 86  O: 72 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 1
    X on roll, cube action

    XGID=-ABBaDB-B---Aa-A--a-caccb-:0:0:1:00:0:0:0:0:10

    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
     +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
     | O     X        O |   |    O  O  O  O  O |
     |                  |   |    O     O  O  O |
     |                  |   |    O     O  O    |
     |                  |   |                  |
     |                  |   |                  |
     |                  |BAR|                  |
     |                  |   |                  |
     |                  |   |    X             |
     |                  |   |    X             |
     |             X    |   | X  X     X  X    |
     | X           X    |   | X  X  O  X  X  X |
     +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count  X: 86  O: 76 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 1
    X on roll, cube action


    Interesting how simply moving a checker from O's ace point to the five
    point makes the difference between a whopper and a too close to call
    take decision.

    --
    Ah....Clem
    The future is fun, the future is fair.

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)