• Which hit? 3

    From Timothy Chow@21:1/5 to All on Mon Aug 23 23:46:12 2021
    XGID=--a---EaAA--cC-Aad-eB---AA:0:0:1:42:0:0:0:0:10

    X:Player 1 O:Player 2
    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | X X O O | | O X X |
    | X O | | O X |
    | X O | | O |
    | O | | O |
    | | X | O |
    | |BAR| |
    | | | X |
    | | | X |
    | O | | X |
    | O | | X |
    | O X X O | | X O |
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 190 O: 151 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 1
    X to play 42

    ---
    Tim Chow

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From Timothy Chow@21:1/5 to All on Sat Aug 28 08:53:22 2021
    XGID=--a---EaAA--cC-Aad-eB---AA:0:0:1:42:0:0:0:0:10

    X:Player 1 O:Player 2
    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | X X O O | | O X X |
    | X O | | O X |
    | X O | | O |
    | O | | O |
    | | X | O |
    | |BAR| |
    | | | X |
    | | | X |
    | O | | X |
    | O | | X |
    | O X X O | | X O |
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 190 O: 151 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 1
    X to play 42

    In an early-game blot-hitting contest, it's usually almost automatic
    to hit the checker that is in the opponent's outfield rather than in
    one's own outfield. But here, XG cringes at bar/23 20/16*, and
    thinks that it's worse than bar/23 6/2* or even the non-hitting
    bar/23 13/9. Its preferred play is bar/21 9/7*, which keeps the
    golden anchor and reduces return shots. It makes sense for X to be
    prepared for a defensive game if necessary, since X is on the losing
    end of this blot-hitting contest.

    1. Rollout¹ Bar/21 9/7* eq:-0.260
    Player: 45.61% (G:11.20% B:0.50%)
    Opponent: 54.39% (G:20.92% B:1.11%)
    Confidence: ±0.019 (-0.279..-0.241) - [100.0%]

    2. Rollout¹ Bar/23 13/9 eq:-0.382 (-0.122)
    Player: 42.66% (G:10.29% B:0.48%)
    Opponent: 57.34% (G:22.25% B:1.14%)
    Confidence: ±0.017 (-0.399..-0.365) - [0.0%]

    3. Rollout¹ Bar/23 6/2* eq:-0.390 (-0.130)
    Player: 43.99% (G:9.82% B:0.46%)
    Opponent: 56.01% (G:25.23% B:1.90%)
    Confidence: ±0.022 (-0.413..-0.368) - [0.0%]

    4. Rollout¹ Bar/23 20/16* eq:-0.407 (-0.147)
    Player: 43.06% (G:10.08% B:0.45%)
    Opponent: 56.94% (G:24.93% B:2.55%)
    Confidence: ±0.021 (-0.428..-0.386) - [0.0%]

    ¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
    Dice Seed: 271828
    Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

    eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release

    ---
    Tim Chow

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)