• Out or in? 2

    From Timothy Chow@21:1/5 to All on Wed Dec 8 22:09:06 2021
    XGID=-a-B-BBbC-B-cB---a-b-bbbAA:1:1:1:61:0:0:0:0:10

    X:Player 1 O:Player 2
    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | X O | | O O O O X |
    | X | | O O O O |
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | | X | |
    | |BAR| |
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | O X | | | +---+
    | O X X O | | X X X | | 2 |
    | O X X O | | X X X O | +---+
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 147 O: 137 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 2, X own cube
    X to play 61

    ---
    Tim Chow

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From Timothy Chow@21:1/5 to All on Fri Dec 10 21:28:37 2021
    XGID=-a-B-BBbC-B-cB---a-b-bbbAA:1:1:1:61:0:0:0:0:10

    X:Player 1 O:Player 2
    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | X O | | O O O O X |
    | X | | O O O O |
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | | X | |
    | |BAR| |
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | O X | | | +---+
    | O X X O | | X X X | | 2 |
    | O X X O | | X X X O | +---+
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 147 O: 137 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 2, X own cube
    X to play 61

    Stepping out into a double shot when O has a four-point board and X
    is behind in the race seemed foolhardy to me. But X has a three-point
    board of his own that protects him somewhat from being attacked, and
    the alternative play of 8/2 creates a blot on the 2pt that could become
    a persistent liability.

    1. Rollout¹ Bar/18 eq:-0.091
    Player: 43.58% (G:13.60% B:0.80%)
    Opponent: 56.42% (G:26.28% B:0.69%)
    Confidence: ±0.010 (-0.101..-0.081) - [100.0%]

    2. Rollout¹ Bar/24 8/2 eq:-0.227 (-0.136)
    Player: 38.00% (G:12.45% B:0.51%)
    Opponent: 62.00% (G:23.36% B:1.94%)
    Confidence: ±0.009 (-0.236..-0.217) - [0.0%]

    3. Rollout¹ Bar/24 10/4 eq:-0.254 (-0.163)
    Player: 37.89% (G:11.96% B:0.53%)
    Opponent: 62.11% (G:24.99% B:2.54%)
    Confidence: ±0.009 (-0.263..-0.244) - [0.0%]

    ¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
    Dice Seed: 271828
    Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

    eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release

    ---
    Tim Chow

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)