On Thursday, December 9, 2021 at 3:05:22 AM UTC, Tim Chow wrote:
On 12/8/2021 3:10 PM, peps...@gmail.com wrote:
In particular, I can't imagine a strong human playing
13/10 8/4 from the original position, which busts to 33
rather than 13/6.
An intermediate human is well-trained to look for root
numbers from the original position and would anticipate the 33.
If I were playing X in the box, I might very well play 13/10
8/4 because I would be focused on trying to clear the high
points in my board, and I might overlook that 33 cracks my
board (even if I noticed it, I wouldn't necessarily think it
was a terrible roll, because it wouldn't blot and it would
start clearing my high points). But as captain of a
consulting chouette, I would certainly play 13/6 if the
team wanted it.
Surely you would notice the 33 cracking parlay. (I noticed this before XG rolled it.)
A sub-5 player simply has to notice root numbers!
33 is actually not a particularly bad roll (as you correctly suggest) -- it loses something like 0.02
if I remember rightly. Appearances can be deceptive.
XG also gave itself the anti-joker 22 (and then rolled it!) which could maybe have been avoided
by playing 10/8 instead of 10/9 but I'm sure there were reasons for this too. (Alternatives might give
more anti-jokers).
Extraordinarily lucky comeback for me.
Pity this didn't happen with anything real at stake.
Also, I messed up the post-hit phase. I couldn't find the correct doubling point.
In fact, I still don't know the correct doubling point.
So that's my follow-up question.
As per my original post. I hit XG's blot on the 9 point while XG had a four point board -- this created a game
where my winning chances were 50/50 but XG gets more gammons.
If things go well for me after this hit, when should I double?
(I doubled too early to give myself a poor PR for the game but it was still miles away from a beaver.)
Thank you.
Paul
--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)