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  • Hitting is obvious

    From Timothy Chow@21:1/5 to All on Mon Dec 6 09:35:08 2021
    XGID=-b--a-E-CB-adD---c-ca----A:0:0:1:51:0:0:0:0:10

    X:Player 1 O:Player 2
    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | X O | | O O |
    | X O | | O |
    | X O | | O |
    | X | | |
    | | X | |
    | |BAR| |
    | | | X |
    | O | | X |
    | O X | | X |
    | O X X | | X O |
    | O O X X | | X O O |
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 149 O: 182 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 1
    X to play 51

    ---
    Tim Chow

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From Timothy Chow@21:1/5 to All on Mon Dec 6 09:36:22 2021
    The title is supposed to prompt Stick to say that the entire
    play is obvious.

    ---
    Tim Chow

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From J R@21:1/5 to Tim Chow on Mon Dec 6 10:36:22 2021
    On Monday, December 6, 2021 at 9:36:23 AM UTC-5, Tim Chow wrote:
    The title is supposed to prompt Stick to say that the entire
    play is obvious.

    ---
    Tim Chow

    I'd have never said it unless requested but yes, this play would have been automatic OtB. It can only become potentially interesting when the 6pt isn't still stacked 5 high or more for eg.

    Stick

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
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  • From Timothy Chow@21:1/5 to All on Wed Dec 8 22:08:02 2021
    XGID=-b--a-E-CB-adD---c-ca----A:0:0:1:51:0:0:0:0:10

    X:Player 1 O:Player 2
    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | X O | | O O |
    | X O | | O |
    | X O | | O |
    | X | | |
    | | X | |
    | |BAR| |
    | | | X |
    | O | | X |
    | O X | | X |
    | O X X | | X O |
    | O O X X | | X O O |
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 149 O: 182 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 1
    X to play 51

    Slotting when the opponent is on the bar still goes against the grain
    for me, even though I have amassed a sizable collection of such
    positions.

    1. Rollout¹ Bar/20* 6/5 eq:+0.473
    Player: 59.18% (G:21.21% B:1.62%)
    Opponent: 40.82% (G:8.28% B:0.34%)
    Confidence: ±0.020 (+0.453..+0.492) - [100.0%]

    2. Rollout¹ Bar/20* 8/7 eq:+0.423 (-0.050)
    Player: 57.32% (G:22.38% B:1.77%)
    Opponent: 42.68% (G:8.61% B:0.35%)
    Confidence: ±0.019 (+0.404..+0.441) - [0.0%]

    3. Rollout¹ Bar/24 13/8 eq:+0.379 (-0.093)
    Player: 57.57% (G:19.70% B:1.47%)
    Opponent: 42.43% (G:9.26% B:0.38%)
    Confidence: ±0.018 (+0.362..+0.397) - [0.0%]

    4. Rollout¹ Bar/20* 9/8 eq:+0.366 (-0.107)
    Player: 55.94% (G:22.68% B:2.08%)
    Opponent: 44.06% (G:9.09% B:0.38%)
    Confidence: ±0.020 (+0.346..+0.386) - [0.0%]

    ¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
    Dice Seed: 271828
    Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

    eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release

    ---
    Tim Chow

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
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