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  • I fear the one who insists: "No! This is not a blitz position!"

    From pepstein5@gmail.com@21:1/5 to All on Fri Aug 20 11:57:23 2021
    XGID=-b----E-D---dD---a-c-abAbA:0:0:-1:00:0:1:3:0:10
    X:eXtremeGammon O:Daniel

    Score is X:1 O:0. Unlimited Game, Jacoby Beaver
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | X O | | O X |
    | X O | | O X |
    | X O | | O |
    | X O | | O |
    | | | O |
    | |BAR| |
    | | O | |
    | O | | |
    | O | | X |
    | O | | X X X |
    | O X | | X X X O X |
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 138 O: 162 X-O: 1-0
    Cube: 1
    X on roll, cube action

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From Timothy Chow@21:1/5 to peps...@gmail.com on Mon Aug 23 23:36:44 2021
    On 8/20/2021 2:57 PM, peps...@gmail.com wrote:
    XGID=-b----E-D---dD---a-c-abAbA:0:0:-1:00:0:1:3:0:10
    X:eXtremeGammon O:Daniel

    Score is X:1 O:0. Unlimited Game, Jacoby Beaver
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | X O | | O X |
    | X O | | O X |
    | X O | | O |
    | X O | | O |
    | | | O |
    | |BAR| |
    | | O | |
    | O | | |
    | O | | X |
    | O | | X X X |
    | O X | | X X X O X |
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 138 O: 162 X-O: 1-0
    Cube: 1
    X on roll, cube action

    After an opening 13/8 24/23 and then 8/3(2) 6/1*(2), dance,
    it's not a double according to the bot. Here it's better for
    X because he has in effect gotten in an extra 13/4. For that
    reason I think the double is clear here. I'm not as sure about
    the take, but somehow I suspect that 13/4 isn't enough of an
    improvement to make a ND/T into a D/P. I'd take this one.

    ---
    Tim Chow

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From pepstein5@gmail.com@21:1/5 to Tim Chow on Tue Aug 24 06:26:40 2021
    On Tuesday, August 24, 2021 at 4:36:47 AM UTC+1, Tim Chow wrote:
    On 8/20/2021 2:57 PM, peps...@gmail.com wrote:
    XGID=-b----E-D---dD---a-c-abAbA:0:0:-1:00:0:1:3:0:10
    X:eXtremeGammon O:Daniel

    Score is X:1 O:0. Unlimited Game, Jacoby Beaver +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | X O | | O X |
    | X O | | O X |
    | X O | | O |
    | X O | | O |
    | | | O |
    | |BAR| |
    | | O | |
    | O | | |
    | O | | X |
    | O | | X X X |
    | O X | | X X X O X |
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 138 O: 162 X-O: 1-0
    Cube: 1
    X on roll, cube action
    After an opening 13/8 24/23 and then 8/3(2) 6/1*(2), dance,
    it's not a double according to the bot. Here it's better for
    X because he has in effect gotten in an extra 13/4. For that
    reason I think the double is clear here. I'm not as sure about
    the take, but somehow I suspect that 13/4 isn't enough of an
    improvement to make a ND/T into a D/P. I'd take this one.

    ---
    Tim Chow

    Very good (and correct) thinking.
    As usual, the rollout is on my other computer.
    I'm fairly sure I know where it is, so I'll get it here before tomorrow morning (UK time).
    BTW, I did pass this one fairly confidently, and was quite surprised.
    It's not a terrible pass, though.

    Paul

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From pepstein5@gmail.com@21:1/5 to peps...@gmail.com on Tue Aug 24 16:01:12 2021
    On Tuesday, August 24, 2021 at 2:26:41 PM UTC+1, peps...@gmail.com wrote:
    On Tuesday, August 24, 2021 at 4:36:47 AM UTC+1, Tim Chow wrote:
    On 8/20/2021 2:57 PM, peps...@gmail.com wrote:
    XGID=-b----E-D---dD---a-c-abAbA:0:0:-1:00:0:1:3:0:10
    X:eXtremeGammon O:Daniel

    Score is X:1 O:0. Unlimited Game, Jacoby Beaver +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | X O | | O X |
    | X O | | O X |
    | X O | | O |
    | X O | | O |
    | | | O |
    | |BAR| |
    | | O | |
    | O | | |
    | O | | X |
    | O | | X X X |
    | O X | | X X X O X |
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 138 O: 162 X-O: 1-0
    Cube: 1
    X on roll, cube action
    After an opening 13/8 24/23 and then 8/3(2) 6/1*(2), dance,
    it's not a double according to the bot. Here it's better for
    X because he has in effect gotten in an extra 13/4. For that
    reason I think the double is clear here. I'm not as sure about
    the take, but somehow I suspect that 13/4 isn't enough of an
    improvement to make a ND/T into a D/P. I'd take this one.

    ---
    Tim Chow
    Very good (and correct) thinking.
    As usual, the rollout is on my other computer.
    I'm fairly sure I know where it is, so I'll get it here before tomorrow morning (UK time).
    BTW, I did pass this one fairly confidently, and was quite surprised.
    It's not a terrible pass, though.

    Paul
    Analyzed in Rollout
    No double
    Player Winning Chances: 65.56% (G:35.86% B:0.62%)
    Opponent Winning Chances: 34.44% (G:7.91% B:0.36%)
    Double/Take
    Player Winning Chances: 66.02% (G:37.62% B:0.61%)
    Opponent Winning Chances: 33.98% (G:8.17% B:0.41%)

    Cubeless Equities: No Double=+0.593, Double=+1.234

    Cubeful Equities:
    No double: +0.707 (-0.265)
    Double/Take: +0.972
    Double/Pass: +1.000 (+0.028)

    Best Cube action: Double / Take

    Rollout:
    1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
    Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
    Confidence No Double: ± 0.012 (+0.695..+0.719)
    Confidence Double: ± 0.019 (+0.953..+0.992)

    Double Decision confidence: 100.0%
    Take Decision confidence: 99.8%

    Duration: 39 minutes 06 seconds

    eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)