• Early-game decision

    From Timothy Chow@21:1/5 to All on Sun Dec 5 08:39:36 2021
    XGID=-b---BC-DA--cB---e-cb--BA-:0:0:1:51:0:0:0:0:10

    X:Player 1 O:Player 2
    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | X O | | O O X X |
    | X O | | O O X |
    | O | | O |
    | O | | |
    | O | | |
    | |BAR| |
    | | | |
    | X | | |
    | O X | | X |
    | O X | | X X O |
    | O X X | | X X O |
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 165 O: 155 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 1
    X to play 51

    ---
    Tim Chow

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From J R@21:1/5 to Tim Chow on Mon Dec 6 10:47:16 2021
    On Sunday, December 5, 2021 at 8:39:38 AM UTC-5, Tim Chow wrote:
    XGID=-b---BC-DA--cB---e-cb--BA-:0:0:1:51:0:0:0:0:10

    X:Player 1 O:Player 2
    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | X O | | O O X X |
    | X O | | O O X |
    | O | | O |
    | O | | |
    | O | | |
    | |BAR| |
    | | | |
    | X | | |
    | O X | | X |
    | O X | | X X O |
    | O X X | | X X O |
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 165 O: 155 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 1
    X to play 51

    ---
    Tim Chow

    I'd tend to label this as a middle game position, not that it really matters.

    Stick

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    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From Timothy Chow@21:1/5 to All on Tue Dec 7 09:46:42 2021
    XGID=-b---BC-DA--cB---e-cb--BA-:0:0:1:51:0:0:0:0:10

    X:Player 1 O:Player 2
    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | X O | | O O X X |
    | X O | | O O X |
    | O | | O |
    | O | | |
    | O | | |
    | |BAR| |
    | | | |
    | X | | |
    | O X | | X |
    | O X | | X X O |
    | O X X | | X X O |
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 165 O: 155 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 1
    X to play 51

    23/18 is the natural way to play the 5, but what about the ace?
    It didn't seem to me that leaving the blot on the 9pt was leaving
    too many blots, but XG evidently thinks so. I suppose that this
    could be viewed as a variation on the theme of "don't slot while
    split." Of course, part of the problem is that all the other aces
    are awkward (except maybe 23/22, but that certainly leaves X open
    to attack, with many double-hitting rolls for example).

    1. Rollout¹ 23/18 9/8 eq:-0.171
    Player: 46.59% (G:13.54% B:0.65%)
    Opponent: 53.41% (G:18.33% B:1.09%)
    Confidence: ±0.014 (-0.185..-0.156) - [100.0%]

    2. Rollout¹ 23/18 6/5 eq:-0.221 (-0.051)
    Player: 45.85% (G:13.39% B:0.74%)
    Opponent: 54.15% (G:20.67% B:1.56%)
    Confidence: ±0.016 (-0.238..-0.205) - [0.0%]

    3. Rollout¹ 24/18 eq:-0.233 (-0.063)
    Player: 44.75% (G:12.98% B:0.69%)
    Opponent: 55.25% (G:18.30% B:1.01%)
    Confidence: ±0.017 (-0.251..-0.216) - [0.0%]

    4. Rollout¹ 23/22 23/18 eq:-0.270 (-0.100)
    Player: 44.91% (G:13.39% B:0.81%)
    Opponent: 55.09% (G:22.40% B:1.81%)
    Confidence: ±0.022 (-0.292..-0.248) - [0.0%]

    ¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
    Dice Seed: 271828
    Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

    eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release

    ---
    Tim Chow

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