XGID=-CDBBB----------b--cBbcbc-:1:1:1:53:0:0:0:0:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| O | | O X O O O O |
| O | | O X O O O O |
| | | O O O |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | X |
| | | X X | +---+
| | | X X X X X | | 2 |
| | | X X X X X | +---+
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 75 O: 60 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, X own cube
X to play 53

---
Tim Chow

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

XGID=-CDBBB----------b--cBbcbc-:1:1:1:53:0:0:0:0:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| O | | O X O O O O |
| O | | O X O O O O |
| | | O O O |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | X |
| | | X X | +---+
| | | X X X X X | | 2 |
| | | X X X X X | +---+
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 75 O: 60 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, X own cube
X to play 53

This one requires weighing X's racing vig versus his shot vig. See
the two variants below for comparison.

One comment is that it can be easy to attach too much importance to
the chances that X will *get* hit. Of course X would prefer not to
be hit, but since X is losing, increased contact generally favors X.
So X shouldn't be focusing primarily on how many shots he's leaving,
but on the chances he'll get a shot versus the chances he'll be able
to win the race.

1. Rollout¹ 20/12 eq:-0.563
Player: 19.63% (G:0.45% B:0.00%)
Opponent: 80.37% (G:2.16% B:0.01%)
Confidence: ±0.003 (-0.567..-0.560) - [100.0%]

2. Rollout¹ 20/15 5/2 eq:-0.706 (-0.142)
Player: 14.45% (G:0.14% B:0.00%)
Opponent: 85.55% (G:4.52% B:0.03%)
Confidence: ±0.004 (-0.709..-0.702) - [0.0%]

3. Rollout¹ 20/17 20/15 eq:-0.709 (-0.146)
Player: 13.26% (G:0.01% B:0.00%)
Opponent: 86.74% (G:1.51% B:0.01%)
Confidence: ±0.003 (-0.712..-0.707) - [0.0%]

4. Rollout¹ 20/15 4/1 eq:-0.726 (-0.163)
Player: 13.70% (G:0.14% B:0.00%)
Opponent: 86.30% (G:4.66% B:0.03%)
Confidence: ±0.003 (-0.730..-0.723) - [0.0%]

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release

---------
Variant 1
---------

XGID=-CDBBB----------c--cBbbbc-:1:1:1:53:0:0:0:0:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| O | | O X O O O O |
| O | | O X O O O O |
| O | | O O |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | X |
| | | X X | +---+
| | | X X X X X | | 2 |
| | | X X X X X | +---+
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 75 O: 66 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, X own cube
X to play 53

1. Rollout¹ 20/17 20/15 eq:-0.451
Player: 23.95% (G:0.06% B:0.00%)
Opponent: 76.05% (G:1.43% B:0.01%)
Confidence: ±0.004 (-0.455..-0.447) - [100.0%]

2. Rollout¹ 20/12 eq:-0.472 (-0.021)
Player: 23.49% (G:0.55% B:0.01%)
Opponent: 76.51% (G:2.34% B:0.02%)
Confidence: ±0.004 (-0.476..-0.468) - [0.0%]

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release

---------
Variant 2
---------

XGID=-CDBBB----------b-acBbbbc-:1:1:1:53:0:0:0:0:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| O O | | O X O O O O |
| O | | O X O O O O |
| | | O O |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | X |
| | | X X | +---+
| | | X X X X X | | 2 |
| | | X X X X X | +---+
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 75 O: 64 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, X own cube
X to play 53

1. Rollout¹ 20/17 20/15 eq:-0.558
Player: 19.71% (G:0.10% B:0.00%)
Opponent: 80.29% (G:1.63% B:0.01%)
Confidence: ±0.004 (-0.562..-0.554) - [100.0%]

2. Rollout¹ 20/12 eq:-0.587 (-0.029)
Player: 19.15% (G:0.72% B:0.01%)
Opponent: 80.85% (G:3.50% B:0.02%)
Confidence: ±0.003 (-0.590..-0.584) - [0.0%]

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release

---
Tim Chow

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)