• 6-away/2-away non-contact cube action

    From Timothy Chow@21:1/5 to All on Fri Dec 3 23:40:53 2021
    XGID=-BBA------------------bb--:0:0:1:00:1:5:0:7:10

    X:Player 1 O:Player 2
    Score is X:1 O:5 7 pt.(s) match.
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | | | O O |
    | | | O O |
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | |BAR| |
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | | | X X |
    | | | X X X |
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 9 O: 10 X-O: 1-5/7
    Cube: 1
    X on roll, cube action

    ---
    Tim Chow

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  • From Timothy Chow@21:1/5 to All on Sun Dec 5 22:32:34 2021
    XGID=-BBA------------------bb--:0:0:1:00:1:5:0:7:10

    X:Player 1 O:Player 2
    Score is X:1 O:5 7 pt.(s) match.
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | | | O O |
    | | | O O |
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | |BAR| |
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | | | X X |
    | | | X X X |
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 9 O: 10 X-O: 1-5/7
    Cube: 1
    X on roll, cube action

    I don't usually post this type of technical decision, but I figured I'd
    do it this time for a change of pace. I'm not sure if there's a good
    way to figure this one out OTB. If this were a last-roll position,
    then X would be risking about 11% MWC to gain about 7.5% MWC, and so
    would double with about 60% GWC.

    X doesn't quite have 60% in this position, but it's not quite a
    last-roll position. That must have something to do with it, but I
    don't see an easy way to argue for why X is supposed to double now.

    Analyzed in Rollout
    No double
    Player Winning Chances: 55.17% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
    Opponent Winning Chances: 44.83% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
    Double/Take
    Player Winning Chances: 55.17% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
    Opponent Winning Chances: 44.83% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)

    Cubeful Equities:
    No double: -0.055 (-0.030)
    Double/Take: -0.025
    Double/Pass: +1.000 (+1.025)

    Best Cube action: Double / Take

    Rollout:
    1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
    Dice Seed: 271828
    Moves and cube decisions: XG Roller++
    Search interval: Gigantic
    Confidence No Double: ± 0.000 (-0.055..-0.055)
    Confidence Double: ± 0.000 (-0.025..-0.025)

    eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release, MET: Kazaross XG2

    ---
    Tim Chow

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  • From Zorba@21:1/5 to Timothy Chow on Mon Jan 3 00:23:18 2022
    On 6-12-2021 4:32, Timothy Chow wrote:
    XGID=-BBA------------------bb--:0:0:1:00:1:5:0:7:10

    X:Player 1   O:Player 2
    Score is X:1 O:5 7 pt.(s) match.
     +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
     |                  |   |          O  O    |
     |                  |   |          O  O    |
     |                  |   |                  |
     |                  |   |                  |
     |                  |   |                  |
     |                  |BAR|                  |
     |                  |   |                  |
     |                  |   |                  |
     |                  |   |                  |
     |                  |   |             X  X |
     |                  |   |          X  X  X |
     +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count  X: 9  O: 10 X-O: 1-5/7
    Cube: 1
    X on roll, cube action

    I don't usually post this type of technical decision, but I figured I'd
    do it this time for a change of pace.  I'm not sure if there's a good
    way to figure this one out OTB.  If this were a last-roll position,
    then X would be risking about 11% MWC to gain about 7.5% MWC, and so
    would double with about 60% GWC.

    X doesn't quite have 60% in this position, but it's not quite a
    last-roll position.  That must have something to do with it, but I
    don't see an easy way to argue for why X is supposed to double now.

    Just browsing here a bit after a very long hiatus. I know this is old,
    but it's interesting!
    X should double here because otherwise, either X loses his market (by a
    lot), or O will make a highly profitable double later most of the time.

    It's hard to catch this OTB but if X does not cube now, and rolls 2-1
    taking two off, will O double? If not and O takes two off then you get
    to this:

    X:Player 1 O:Player 2
    Score is X:1 O:5 7 pt.(s) match.
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | | | O O |
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | |BAR| |
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | | | X X X |
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 6 O: 5 X-O: 1-5/7
    Cube: 1
    X on roll, cube action

    Now X has only around 40% winning chances, but quite a lot of market
    losing sequences. And what happens if X decides not to double and takes
    two off?

    --
    Zorba

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