XGID=baDCB-----AA-a-b--AcbbbAB-:1:1:1:41:0:0:0:0:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| O O X | | O O O O X X |
| O | | O O O O X |
| | | O |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | O | |
| | O | X |
| | | X X | +---+
| | | X X X | | 2 |
| X X | | X X X O | +---+
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 135 O: 148 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, X own cube
X to play 41

---
Tim Chow

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

XGID=baDCB-----AA-a-b--AcbbbAB-:1:1:1:41:0:0:0:0:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| O O X | | O O O O X X |
| O | | O O O O X |
| | | O |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | O | |
| | O | X |
| | | X X | +---+
| | | X X X | | 2 |
| X X | | X X X O | +---+
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 135 O: 148 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, X own cube
X to play 41

Giving O a direct shot by hitting 2/1* might seem counterintuitive
because O has a strong board. The thing is that even though X
temporarily has the initiative, he is still losing. When you're
losing, you need to be on the lookout for taking calculated risks
that have a strong upside if they work. Here, X would like to
put his three semi-dead checkers to work for him if he can. If
he gets hit back---well, he won't be happy, but O will probably
still have two on the bar, and X is anchored, so he can probably
survive.

In the variant, I moved one of X's spares from his 2pt out to his
11pt. Then the rollout indicates a close call, although XG still
favors 18/14 2/1*.

1. Rollout¹ 18/14 2/1* eq:-0.181
Player: 38.78% (G:22.38% B:1.30%)
Opponent: 61.22% (G:29.84% B:4.73%)
Confidence: ±0.013 (-0.194..-0.167) - [100.0%]

2. Rollout¹ 11/7 2/1* eq:-0.277 (-0.096)
Player: 36.42% (G:19.97% B:1.03%)
Opponent: 63.58% (G:30.85% B:4.39%)
Confidence: ±0.014 (-0.291..-0.263) - [0.0%]

3. Rollout¹ 18/13* eq:-0.349 (-0.168)
Player: 33.78% (G:17.15% B:1.16%)
Opponent: 66.22% (G:29.74% B:3.04%)
Confidence: ±0.014 (-0.363..-0.335) - [0.0%]

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release

-------
Variant
-------

XGID=baCCB-----AB-a-b--AcbbbAB-:1:1:1:41:0:0:0:0:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| O O X | | O O O O X X |
| O | | O O O O X |
| | | O |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | O | |
| | O | |
| | | X X | +---+
| X | | X X X | | 2 |
| X X | | X X X O | +---+
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 144 O: 148 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, X own cube
X to play 41

1. Rollout¹ 18/14 2/1* eq:-0.057
Player: 42.42% (G:23.58% B:2.10%)
Opponent: 57.58% (G:28.34% B:4.45%)
Confidence: ±0.007 (-0.065..-0.050) - [100.0%]

2. Rollout¹ 18/13* eq:-0.079 (-0.022)
Player: 41.28% (G:21.28% B:2.16%)
Opponent: 58.72% (G:26.21% B:2.99%)
Confidence: ±0.008 (-0.087..-0.071) - [0.0%]

3. Rollout¹ 11/7 2/1* eq:-0.083 (-0.026)
Player: 42.33% (G:23.89% B:2.04%)
Opponent: 57.67% (G:29.35% B:5.81%)
Confidence: ±0.007 (-0.090..-0.076) - [0.0%]

¹ 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release

---
Tim Chow

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

XGID=-aaBBbC-A--BbC-a-c-c-Ab-A-:0:0:1:64:0:0:0:0:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O O | | O X O X |
| X O | | O O |
| X O | | O |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | X |
| O X | | X O X X |
| O X X | | X O X X O O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 146 O: 171 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 64

---
Tim Chow

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

XGID=-aaBBbC-A--BbC-a-c-c-Ab-A-:0:0:1:64:0:0:0:0:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O O | | O X O X |
| X O | | O O |
| X O | | O |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | X |
| O X | | X O X X |
| O X X | | X O X X O O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 146 O: 171 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 64

In most positions, hitting a blot in the opponent's outfield is better
than PoH on the 2pt, but here, O's game gets a lot better if she can
anchor on X's 2pt. Losing more pips is less of a concern.

1. Rollout¹ 8/2* 6/2 eq:+0.767
Player: 64.90% (G:30.56% B:2.09%)
Opponent: 35.10% (G:7.55% B:0.30%)
Confidence: ±0.011 (+0.756..+0.779) - [100.0%]

2. Rollout¹ 21/15* 15/11 eq:+0.622 (-0.145)
Player: 61.60% (G:25.36% B:1.22%)
Opponent: 38.40% (G:8.09% B:0.33%)
Confidence: ±0.018 (+0.604..+0.640) - [0.0%]

3. Rollout¹ 21/15* 6/2* eq:+0.616 (-0.151)
Player: 61.73% (G:27.03% B:1.74%)
Opponent: 38.27% (G:9.04% B:0.51%)
Confidence: ±0.016 (+0.601..+0.632) - [0.0%]

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release

---
Tim Chow

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

XGID=-CaCCBC-aa-------b-ccbb--A:1:-1:1:21:0:0:0:0:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| O | | O O O O | +---+
| O | | O O O O | | 2 |
| | | O O | +---+
| | | |
| | X | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | X X X X |
| | | X X X X X |
| O O | | X X X X O X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 77 O: 119 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, O own cube
X to play 21

---
Tim Chow

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

On 7/26/2022 8:47 AM, Timothy Chow wrote:

XGID=-CaCCBC-aa-------b-ccbb--A:1:-1:1:21:0:0:0:0:10

X:Player 1   O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game  +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
 |             O    |   | O  O  O  O       | +---+  |             O    |   | O  O  O  O       | | 2 |  |                  |   | O  O             | +---+
 |                  |   |                  |
 |                  | X |                  |
 |                  |BAR|                  |
 |                  |   |                  |
 |                  |   |                  |
 |                  |   | X     X  X     X |  |                  |   | X  X  X  X     X |  |          O  O    |   | X  X  X  X  O  X |  +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count  X: 77  O: 119 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, O own cube
X to play 21

Entering on the ace gives two more rolls to escape, so that favors
bar/24 4/2*. It leaves 1 and 4 to cover while the other hitting play
leaves 2 and 4 to cover. I'm not seeing a good reason to favor one
over the other except for the more escaping numbers. Maybe since 5s
crunch and sixes don't favors entering on the deuce.

I'll play bar/24 4/2*

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

XGID=-CaCCBC-aa-------b-ccbb--A:1:-1:1:21:0:0:0:0:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| O | | O O O O | +---+
| O | | O O O O | | 2 |
| | | O O | +---+
| | | |
| | X | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | X X X X |
| | | X X X X X |
| O O | | X X X X O X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 77 O: 119 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, O own cube
X to play 21

I scratched my head over this one for a while, because my OTB
reasoning was the same as ah_clem's: From the 24pt, my back
checker can escape with any 6 as well as 51, whereas from the
23pt, I have to roll a 5 to escape, so shouldn't I stay back
and give myself more escaping numbers?

I believe that the correct reasoning is that if I stay back
on the 24pt, then my 5's are bad because then I have to crunch my
board. On the 23pt, my 5's are good and my 6's are killed
(except for 65 of course). If I have a good 5 to play (see
variant below) then the story changes.

1. Rollout¹ Bar/23 3/2* eq:+0.026
Player: 51.31% (G:28.16% B:0.37%)
Opponent: 48.69% (G:9.59% B:0.33%)
Confidence: ±0.007 (+0.019..+0.033) - [100.0%]

2. Rollout¹ Bar/24 4/2* eq:-0.106 (-0.132)
Player: 47.52% (G:24.66% B:0.28%)
Opponent: 52.48% (G:11.36% B:0.37%)
Confidence: ±0.008 (-0.114..-0.098) - [0.0%]

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release

-------
Variant
-------

XGID=-CaCCBBAaa-------b-ccbb--A:1:-1:1:21:0:0:0:0:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| O | | O O O O | +---+
| O | | O O O O | | 2 |
| | | O O | +---+
| | | |
| | X | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | X X X |
| | | X X X X X |
| O O X | | X X X X O X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 78 O: 119 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, O own cube
X to play 21

1. Rollout¹ Bar/24 4/2* eq:-0.048
Player: 49.16% (G:26.16% B:0.28%)
Opponent: 50.84% (G:13.55% B:0.74%)
Confidence: ±0.011 (-0.059..-0.037) - [100.0%]

2. Rollout¹ Bar/23 3/2* eq:-0.119 (-0.071)
Player: 47.15% (G:25.34% B:0.35%)
Opponent: 52.85% (G:15.07% B:0.80%)
Confidence: ±0.009 (-0.128..-0.111) - [0.0%]

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release

---
Tim Chow

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)