XGID=b-BCBBBB-------abbbcbAAa--:0:0:1:00:0:0:0:0:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| O O O O | | O O X X O |
| O O O | | O O |
| | | O |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | O | |
| | O | |
| | | X |
| X | | X X X X X |
| X | | X X X X X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 100 O: 138 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X on roll, cube action

---
Tim Chow

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

On Wednesday, December 1, 2021 at 1:28:58 PM UTC, Tim Chow wrote:

XGID=b-BCBBBB-------abbbcbAAa--:0:0:1:00:0:0:0:0:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| O O O O | | O O X X O |
| O O O | | O O |
| | | O |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | O | |
| | O | |
| | | X |
| X | | X X X X X |
| X | | X X X X X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 100 O: 138 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X on roll, cube action

---
Tim Chow

I agree that it's difficult.
I'll hold this (ND/T) but with no confidence whatsoever.
We need a lot of good dice to free ourselves -- two sixes and an ace (and not in any order either).
We're hoping for an ace or a six here.
It's quite possible that those rolls do lose our market. But they still leave a lot of escaping to do so I suspect
that they don't totally destroy our market.
I'll hold until I roll either an ace or a six and then I'll think about it. ND/T.

Paul

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

On Wednesday, December 1, 2021 at 4:34:03 PM UTC-5, peps...@gmail.com wrote:

On Wednesday, December 1, 2021 at 1:28:58 PM UTC, Tim Chow wrote:

XGID=b-BCBBBB-------abbbcbAAa--:0:0:1:00:0:0:0:0:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| O O O O | | O O X X O |
| O O O | | O O |
| | | O |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | O | |
| | O | |
| | | X |
| X | | X X X X X |
| X | | X X X X X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 100 O: 138 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X on roll, cube action

---
Tim Chow

I agree that it's difficult.
I'll hold this (ND/T) but with no confidence whatsoever.
We need a lot of good dice to free ourselves -- two sixes and an ace (and not in any order either).
We're hoping for an ace or a six here.
It's quite possible that those rolls do lose our market. But they still leave a lot of escaping to do so I suspect
that they don't totally destroy our market.
I'll hold until I roll either an ace or a six and then I'll think about it. ND/T.

Paul

O'Hagan's Law....

Stick

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

XGID=b-BCBBBB-------abbbcbAAa--:0:0:1:00:0:0:0:0:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| O O O O | | O O X X O |
| O O O | | O O |
| | | O |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | O | |
| | O | |
| | | X |
| X | | X X X X X |
| X | | X X X X X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 100 O: 138 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X on roll, cube action

First we note that since O has two checkers on the bar, a lot of X's
wins will be gammons. Then we note that X has two checkers behind
O's five-prime, and one of them is not at the edge; plus X is running
out of time to roll a 6. This means that O must have pretty good
winning chances. Despite O's unfortunately placed blots, the rollout
indicates a clear take.

Any 6 leads to massive market loss since it puts another checker on
the bar and buys X more timing. Unless O rolls 11, X will be too good.
The rollout indicates an equally clear double.

Analyzed in Rollout
No double
Player Winning Chances: 60.78% (G:43.98% B:1.72%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 39.22% (G:6.86% B:0.23%)
Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 60.78% (G:44.81% B:1.57%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 39.22% (G:7.09% B:0.25%)

Cubeful Equities:
No double: +0.695 (-0.150)
Double/Take: +0.845
Double/Pass: +1.000 (+0.155)

Best Cube action: Double / Take

Rollout:
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Confidence No Double: ± 0.013 (+0.682..+0.708)
Confidence Double: ± 0.024 (+0.822..+0.869)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release

---
Tim Chow

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)