• Prime a single checker?

    From Timothy Chow@21:1/5 to All on Tue Nov 30 09:39:45 2021
    XGID=-a--C-CCB---bB---c-eBaba--:0:0:1:43:0:0:0:0:10

    X:Player 1 O:Player 2
    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | X O | | O X O O O |
    | X O | | O X O |
    | O | | O |
    | | | O |
    | | | O |
    | |BAR| |
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | X | | X X |
    | O X X | | X X |
    | O X X | | X X O |
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 133 O: 116 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 1
    X to play 43

    ---
    Tim Chow

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From Timothy Chow@21:1/5 to All on Thu Dec 2 08:21:07 2021
    XGID=-a--C-CCB---bB---c-eBaba--:0:0:1:43:0:0:0:0:10

    X:Player 1 O:Player 2
    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | X O | | O X O O O |
    | X O | | O X O |
    | O | | O |
    | | | O |
    | | | O |
    | |BAR| |
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | X | | X X |
    | O X X | | X X |
    | O X X | | X X O |
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 133 O: 116 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 1
    X to play 43

    There is an adage I've sometimes heard that goes something like this:
    "Attack a single checker; prime two or more checkers." I don't find
    this adage to be very useful, and certainly in the present position,
    hitting on the ace point makes no sense. X wants to contain O's
    checkers, and given his structure, priming is the best way to do that.
    However, OTB I made the 3pt, missing XG's play of 13/10 13/9. It is
    much more important to try to make the 5pt here than to make the 3pt.
    The indirect shots are not a concern, especially since O has two blots
    in her board.

    1. Rollout¹ 13/10 13/9 eq:+0.543
    Player: 63.95% (G:13.19% B:0.42%)
    Opponent: 36.05% (G:6.39% B:0.18%)
    Confidence: ±0.011 (+0.532..+0.554) - [100.0%]

    2. Rollout¹ 7/3 6/3 eq:+0.338 (-0.205)
    Player: 59.37% (G:12.52% B:0.38%)
    Opponent: 40.63% (G:7.60% B:0.19%)
    Confidence: ±0.009 (+0.329..+0.347) - [0.0%]

    ¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
    Dice Seed: 271828
    Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

    eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release

    ---
    Tim Chow

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)