On Wednesday, December 1, 2021 at 8:27:40 AM UTC-5, Tim Chow wrote:
XGID=--abACC-BB---A-A-bbcc-bB--:0:0:1:53:0:0:0:0:10
X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X X O O | | O O O X |
| O O | | O O O X |
| | | O O |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | X X |
| X X | | X X O |
| X X | | X X X O O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 145 O: 136 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 53
It seemed natural to me to cover my blot and hit, but to do so,
I have to break the back of my prime. XG's play of 15/10 13/10
gives me a broken five-prime rather than a broken-four prime.
Note the swing on O's rolls of 61 62 63; if I play 9/4 5/2* then
61 62 63 are jokers for O, whereas after 15/10 13/10, O is forced
to break her prime.
1. Rollout¹ 15/10 13/10 eq:-0.169
Player: 45.92% (G:13.75% B:0.64%)
Opponent: 54.08% (G:17.74% B:0.94%)
Confidence: ±0.018 (-0.187..-0.151) - [100.0%]
2. Rollout¹ 9/4 5/2* eq:-0.246 (-0.077)
Player: 45.23% (G:12.90% B:0.59%)
Opponent: 54.77% (G:22.38% B:1.98%)
Confidence: ±0.017 (-0.263..-0.230) - [0.0%]
3. Rollout¹ 13/8 5/2* eq:-0.311 (-0.141)
Player: 44.42% (G:12.06% B:0.53%)
Opponent: 55.58% (G:22.71% B:1.54%)
Confidence: ±0.016 (-0.326..-0.295) - [0.0%]
4. Rollout¹ 9/6 9/4 eq:-0.329 (-0.160)
Player: 41.33% (G:13.36% B:0.61%)
Opponent: 58.67% (G:17.88% B:1.07%)
Confidence: ±0.014 (-0.343..-0.314) - [0.0%]
¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release
---
Tim Chow
Just a play leaving 4 reachable blots (compared to 1) when the opponent has a very solid forward position should generally be frowned upon.
Stick
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