• Shock horror! XG disagreed with the way I approached a position.

    From pepstein5@gmail.com@21:1/5 to All on Sat Nov 27 17:28:32 2021
    With a crushing position, I'm mainly focused on maximising my gammon
    chances. With two on the bar, I'm only 40% to get a gammon even if
    I close my board, so my main priority is to pick up XG's checker on the
    6 point. So I don't close my board with 7/1. Rather, I hope to get hit on
    the ace to shoot at XG's blot on its 6 point. Note that I will get 13 shots
    at it.
    Why is this thinking as crazy as searching for the Loch Ness monster?
    Where is the error in the reasoning?
    How come I got dinged, and what's the reason for?

    Paul

    XGID=bABBBBBBA-------A--a-cccc-:1:-1:1:61:0:0:3:0:10
    X:Daniel O:eXtremeGammon

    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game, Jacoby Beaver
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | X | | O O O O O | +---+
    | | | O O O O | | 2 |
    | | | O O O O | +---+
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | |BAR| |
    | | O | |
    | | O | |
    | | | |
    | X | | X X X X X |
    | X X | | X X X X X X |
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 79 O: 86 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 2, O own cube
    X to play 61

    1. XG Roller+ 7/6 7/1 eq:+1.451
    Player: 98.09% (G:48.10% B:1.50%)
    Opponent: 1.91% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)

    2. XG Roller+ 16/10 8/7 eq:+1.400 (-0.051)
    Player: 96.86% (G:45.49% B:2.01%)
    Opponent: 3.14% (G:0.12% B:0.00%)

    3. 4-ply 16/15 7/1 eq:+1.443 (-0.008)
    Player: 98.05% (G:47.40% B:1.52%)
    Opponent: 1.95% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)

    4. 4-ply 8/1 eq:+1.435 (-0.015)
    Player: 97.98% (G:46.83% B:1.47%)
    Opponent: 2.02% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)

    5. 4-ply 16/9 eq:+1.395 (-0.056)
    Player: 96.74% (G:45.22% B:2.00%)
    Opponent: 3.26% (G:0.05% B:0.00%)


    eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From Timothy Chow@21:1/5 to peps...@gmail.com on Sun Nov 28 10:29:30 2021
    On 11/27/2021 8:28 PM, peps...@gmail.com wrote:
    With a crushing position, I'm mainly focused on maximising my gammon
    chances. With two on the bar, I'm only 40% to get a gammon even if
    I close my board, so my main priority is to pick up XG's checker on the
    6 point. So I don't close my board with 7/1. Rather, I hope to get hit on the ace to shoot at XG's blot on its 6 point. Note that I will get 13 shots at it.
    Why is this thinking as crazy as searching for the Loch Ness monster?
    Where is the error in the reasoning?
    How come I got dinged, and what's the reason for?

    O still has a four-point board so you could still lose if O
    establishes an ace-point game. See variant below.

    XGID=bABBBBBBA-------A--a--cde-:1:-1:1:61:0:0:3:0:10

    X:Player 1 O:Player 2
    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game, Jacoby Beaver
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | X | | O O O O | +---+
    | | | O O O | | 2 |
    | | | O O O | +---+
    | | | O O |
    | | | O |
    | |BAR| |
    | | O | |
    | | O | |
    | | | |
    | X | | X X X X X |
    | X X | | X X X X X X |
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 79 O: 78 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 2, O own cube
    X to play 61

    1. Rollout¹ 16/10 7/6 eq:+1.505
    Player: 97.28% (G:53.47% B:3.32%)
    Opponent: 2.72% (G:0.16% B:0.00%)
    Confidence: ±0.003 (+1.502..+1.508) - [100.0%]

    2. Rollout¹ 8/2 7/6 eq:+1.497 (-0.008)
    Player: 97.31% (G:52.93% B:3.03%)
    Opponent: 2.69% (G:0.12% B:0.00%)
    Confidence: ±0.003 (+1.494..+1.501) - [0.0%]

    3. Rollout¹ 7/6 7/1 eq:+1.494 (-0.011)
    Player: 98.48% (G:50.87% B:2.03%)
    Opponent: 1.52% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
    Confidence: ±0.002 (+1.491..+1.496) - [0.0%]

    4. Rollout¹ 16/9 eq:+1.489 (-0.016)
    Player: 97.65% (G:51.38% B:2.96%)
    Opponent: 2.35% (G:0.04% B:0.00%)
    Confidence: ±0.003 (+1.486..+1.493) - [0.0%]

    5. Rollout¹ 16/15 7/1 eq:+1.486 (-0.019)
    Player: 98.41% (G:50.30% B:1.94%)
    Opponent: 1.59% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
    Confidence: ±0.002 (+1.484..+1.489) - [0.0%]

    ¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
    Dice Seed: 271828
    Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

    eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release

    ---
    Tim Chow

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)