On 11/27/2021 8:28 PM,
peps...@gmail.com wrote:
With a crushing position, I'm mainly focused on maximising my gammon
chances. With two on the bar, I'm only 40% to get a gammon even if
I close my board, so my main priority is to pick up XG's checker on the
6 point. So I don't close my board with 7/1. Rather, I hope to get hit on the ace to shoot at XG's blot on its 6 point. Note that I will get 13 shots at it.
Why is this thinking as crazy as searching for the Loch Ness monster?
Where is the error in the reasoning?
How come I got dinged, and what's the reason for?
O still has a four-point board so you could still lose if O
establishes an ace-point game. See variant below.
XGID=bABBBBBBA-------A--a--cde-:1:-1:1:61:0:0:3:0:10
X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game, Jacoby Beaver
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X | | O O O O | +---+
| | | O O O | | 2 |
| | | O O O | +---+
| | | O O |
| | | O |
| |BAR| |
| | O | |
| | O | |
| | | |
| X | | X X X X X |
| X X | | X X X X X X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 79 O: 78 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, O own cube
X to play 61
1. Rollout¹ 16/10 7/6 eq:+1.505
Player: 97.28% (G:53.47% B:3.32%)
Opponent: 2.72% (G:0.16% B:0.00%)
Confidence: ±0.003 (+1.502..+1.508) - [100.0%]
2. Rollout¹ 8/2 7/6 eq:+1.497 (-0.008)
Player: 97.31% (G:52.93% B:3.03%)
Opponent: 2.69% (G:0.12% B:0.00%)
Confidence: ±0.003 (+1.494..+1.501) - [0.0%]
3. Rollout¹ 7/6 7/1 eq:+1.494 (-0.011)
Player: 98.48% (G:50.87% B:2.03%)
Opponent: 1.52% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Confidence: ±0.002 (+1.491..+1.496) - [0.0%]
4. Rollout¹ 16/9 eq:+1.489 (-0.016)
Player: 97.65% (G:51.38% B:2.96%)
Opponent: 2.35% (G:0.04% B:0.00%)
Confidence: ±0.003 (+1.486..+1.493) - [0.0%]
5. Rollout¹ 16/15 7/1 eq:+1.486 (-0.019)
Player: 98.41% (G:50.30% B:1.94%)
Opponent: 1.59% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Confidence: ±0.002 (+1.484..+1.489) - [0.0%]
¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release
---
Tim Chow
--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
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