Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X | | O O X O O |
| X | | O O X O O |
| | | O O O O |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | O | |
| | | |
| | | | +---+
| | | X O X X X X | | 2 |
| X | | X O X X X X | +---+
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 119 O: 110 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, X own cube
X on roll, cube action

---
Tim Chow

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

On Friday, November 26, 2021 at 12:04:36 PM UTC-5, Tim Chow wrote:

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X | | O O X O O |
| X | | O O X O O |
| | | O O O O |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | O | |
| | | |
| | | | +---+
| | | X O X X X X | | 2 |
| X | | X O X X X X | +---+
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 119 O: 110 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, X own cube
X on roll, cube action

---
Tim Chow

No XGID

Stick

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

On Friday, November 26, 2021 at 2:29:24 PM UTC-5, J R wrote:

No XGID

Second attempt.

XGID=aBBBBbB----A-----B-ccBc-c-:1:1:1:00:0:0:0:0:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X | | O O X O O |
| X | | O O X O O |
| | | O O O O |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | O | |
| | | |
| | | | +---+
| | | X O X X X X | | 2 |
| X | | X O X X X X | +---+
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 119 O: 110 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, X own cube
X on roll, cube action

---
Tim Chow

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

On Friday, November 26, 2021 at 5:04:36 PM UTC, Tim Chow wrote:

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X | | O O X O O |
| X | | O O X O O |
| | | O O O O |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | O | |
| | | |
| | | | +---+
| | | X O X X X X | | 2 |
| X | | X O X X X X | +---+
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 119 O: 110 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, X own cube
X on roll, cube action

---
Tim Chow

D/T.
If the opponent can reenter while the pipcount is close, it seems like a fairly even contest.
So take.
If we roll big, and the opponent dances, we lose our market so double.
I don't think we, or our opponent, will get many gammons.

Paul

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

XGID=aBBBBbB----A-----B-ccBc-c-:1:1:1:00:0:0:0:0:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X | | O O X O O |
| X | | O O X O O |
| | | O O O O |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | O | |
| | | |
| | | | +---+
| | | X O X X X X | | 2 |
| X | | X O X X X X | +---+
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 119 O: 110 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, X own cube
X on roll, cube action

I was surprised that XG deemed this to be a ND. I'm doubling this
one for sure OTB because it looks scary and some will pass. But X
still has a lot of work to do to come home, and if O hits back then
the tables could turn immediately. Despite X's five-point board,
X wins only about 10% gammons according to the rollout; I was guessing
that X would win upwards of 15% gammons.

Analyzed in Rollout
No redouble
Player Winning Chances: 70.18% (G:10.24% B:0.15%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 29.82% (G:4.89% B:0.11%)
Redouble/Take
Player Winning Chances: 70.40% (G:10.08% B:0.15%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 29.60% (G:4.20% B:0.09%)

Cubeful Equities:
No redouble: +0.781
Redouble/Take: +0.729 (-0.051)
Redouble/Pass: +1.000 (+0.219)

Best Cube action: No redouble / Take
Percentage of wrong pass needed to make the double decision right: 15.9%

Rollout:
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Confidence No Double: ± 0.009 (+0.772..+0.790)
Confidence Double: ± 0.012 (+0.717..+0.742)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release

---
Tim Chow

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

On Tuesday, November 30, 2021 at 2:31:41 AM UTC, Tim Chow wrote:

XGID=aBBBBbB----A-----B-ccBc-c-:1:1:1:00:0:0:0:0:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X | | O O X O O |
| X | | O O X O O |
| | | O O O O |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | O | |
| | | |
| | | | +---+
| | | X O X X X X | | 2 |
| X | | X O X X X X | +---+
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 119 O: 110 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, X own cube
X on roll, cube action
I was surprised that XG deemed this to be a ND. I'm doubling this
one for sure OTB because it looks scary and some will pass. But X
still has a lot of work to do to come home, and if O hits back then
the tables could turn immediately. Despite X's five-point board,
X wins only about 10% gammons according to the rollout; I was guessing
that X would win upwards of 15% gammons.

Analyzed in Rollout
No redouble
Player Winning Chances: 70.18% (G:10.24% B:0.15%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 29.82% (G:4.89% B:0.11%)
Redouble/Take
Player Winning Chances: 70.40% (G:10.08% B:0.15%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 29.60% (G:4.20% B:0.09%)

Cubeful Equities:
No redouble: +0.781
Redouble/Take: +0.729 (-0.051)
Redouble/Pass: +1.000 (+0.219)

Best Cube action: No redouble / Take
Percentage of wrong pass needed to make the double decision right: 15.9%

Rollout:
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Confidence No Double: ± 0.009 (+0.772..+0.790)
Confidence Double: ± 0.012 (+0.717..+0.742)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release

I'm not at all surprised by this result. I thought it was D/T but I wasn't
at all confident, and ND/T would definitely have been my second choice.
I also saw the lack of gammons, but I didn't quantify it.

Paul

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)