My titles don't lie. (At least this one doesn't, anyway).
So I'll offer a proof that the problem below is easy:

It happens quite frequently (if I recall correctly) that problems posed
on this forum are attempted by nobody.
There is therefore a high probability that this problem is attempted by
nobody.
If it is attempted by nobody, all the solving attempts will be correct.
There is therefore a high probability that every single person who
attempts the problem will solve it correctly.
If a problem is likely to be solved correctly by all attempters, it must be
an easy problem.
Therefore the problem below is easy.

Paul

XGID=a--BBcCBC---bBA----cb-bb--:1:1:1:00:2:0:3:0:10
X:Daniel O:eXtremeGammon

Score is X:2 O:0. Unlimited Game, Jacoby Beaver
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X X | | O O O O |
| X | | O O O O |
| | | O |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | O | |
| | | |
| X | | X O | +---+
| O X X | | X O X X | | 2 |
| O X X | | X O X X | +---+
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 110 O: 149 X-O: 2-0
Cube: 2, X own cube
X on roll, cube action

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

XGID=a--BBcCBC---bBA----cb-bb--:1:1:1:00:2:0:3:0:10
X:Daniel O:eXtremeGammon

Score is X:2 O:0. Unlimited Game, Jacoby Beaver
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X X | | O O O O |
| X | | O O O O |
| | | O |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | O | |
| | | |
| X | | X O | +---+
| O X X | | X O X X | | 2 |
| O X X | | X O X X | +---+
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 110 O: 149 X-O: 2-0
Cube: 2, X own cube
X on roll, cube action

Although O is on the bar, I look at this position as primarily a
5pt holding game. In a holding game, the holder usually relies
on a mixture of racing vig and shot vig. Here, O is so far behind
in the pip count that she has to rely mostly on shot vig. She
does have some shot vig because her checker on the bar could
enter deep in X's board, and X could have some trouble clearing
the midpoint or even safetying the straggler. However, I don't
think it's enough, especially since X has some gammon chances.
D/P for me.

---
Tim Chow

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

On Thursday, November 25, 2021 at 2:20:22 PM UTC, Tim Chow wrote:

XGID=a--BBcCBC---bBA----cb-bb--:1:1:1:00:2:0:3:0:10
X:Daniel O:eXtremeGammon

Score is X:2 O:0. Unlimited Game, Jacoby Beaver +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X X | | O O O O |
| X | | O O O O |
| | | O |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | O | |
| | | |
| X | | X O | +---+
| O X X | | X O X X | | 2 |
| O X X | | X O X X | +---+
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 110 O: 149 X-O: 2-0
Cube: 2, X own cube
X on roll, cube action
Although O is on the bar, I look at this position as primarily a
5pt holding game. In a holding game, the holder usually relies
on a mixture of racing vig and shot vig. Here, O is so far behind
in the pip count that she has to rely mostly on shot vig. She
does have some shot vig because her checker on the bar could
enter deep in X's board, and X could have some trouble clearing
the midpoint or even safetying the straggler. However, I don't
think it's enough, especially since X has some gammon chances.
D/P for me.

And it's not TG because ... ?

Paul

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

On Thursday, November 25, 2021 at 4:42:16 PM UTC-5, peps...@gmail.com wrote:

And it's not TG because ... ?

Oh, hmmm. Yes, if it's a pass and there are hardly any sequences
that regain the market, then I guess it's probably TG. If this is part
of your mission to show that people other than Stick cash TG
positions too often, then score one point for you.

---
Tim Chow

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

On Thursday, November 25, 2021 at 10:05:47 PM UTC, Tim Chow wrote:

On Thursday, November 25, 2021 at 4:42:16 PM UTC-5, peps...@gmail.com wrote:

And it's not TG because ... ?

Oh, hmmm. Yes, if it's a pass and there are hardly any sequences
that regain the market, then I guess it's probably TG. If this is part
of your mission to show that people other than Stick cash TG
positions too often, then score one point for you.

---
Tim Chow

It doesn't work as an example of a TG that people wrongly cash because it's actually too close to call (in my opinion) and is ultra-marginal between D/P and TG.

It works as an example of "a quiz Tim got wrong" though. In my opinion, D/P is an ok answer because,
with it being so marginal, no one can say this is wrong. But then the TG possibility must be mentioned
to score any points.


Analyzed in Rollout
No redouble
Player Winning Chances: 82.27% (G:14.87% B:0.17%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 17.73% (G:1.77% B:0.05%)
Redouble/Take
Player Winning Chances: 81.85% (G:16.37% B:0.21%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 18.15% (G:2.00% B:0.06%)

Cubeless Equities: No Double=+0.778, Double=+1.564

Cubeful Equities:
No redouble: +1.004
Redouble/Take: +1.441 (+0.437)
Redouble/Pass: +1.000 (-0.004)

Best Cube action: Too good to redouble / Pass
Percentage of wrong take needed to make the double decision right: 0.9%

Rollout:
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Confidence No Double: ± 0.003 (+1.001..+1.007)
Confidence Double: ± 0.011 (+1.430..+1.452)

Double Decision confidence: 99.6%
Take Decision confidence: 100.0%

Duration: 48 minutes 44 seconds

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)