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  • Boxcars

    From Tim Chow@21:1/5 to All on Wed Nov 24 06:31:05 2021
    XGID=-a-bBBDCC--A-a----bbbbba--:1:-1:1:66:0:0:0:0:10

    X:Player 1 O:Player 2
    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | O O | | O O O O O | +---+
    | O | | O O O O | | 2 |
    | | | | +---+
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | |BAR| |
    | | | |
    | | | X |
    | X X | | X |
    | X X | | X X X O |
    | X X X | | X X X O O |
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 98 O: 132 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 2, O own cube
    X to play 66

    ---
    Tim Chow

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From pepstein5@gmail.com@21:1/5 to Tim Chow on Wed Nov 24 14:59:21 2021
    On Wednesday, November 24, 2021 at 2:31:06 PM UTC, Tim Chow wrote:
    XGID=-a-bBBDCC--A-a----bbbbba--:1:-1:1:66:0:0:0:0:10

    X:Player 1 O:Player 2
    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | O O | | O O O O O | +---+
    | O | | O O O O | | 2 |
    | | | | +---+
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | |BAR| |
    | | | |
    | | | X |
    | X X | | X |
    | X X | | X X X O |
    | X X X | | X X X O O |
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 98 O: 132 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 2, O own cube
    X to play 66

    It's not a very QF-friendly answer, but OTB, I would blitz and make a 5 point board.
    Yes, it pays off to 34 and 35 but it gives us too many gammons for us not to do it.
    OTB, I would also be very surprised if this is wrong. But I've been wrong too many times at rgb
    to be surprised here. In fact, I'd estimate my chances of being correct as being slightly below 50%.

    Of course, it's a terrible play at DMP and maybe that's Tim's point.
    But then it is certainly an obvious exception.

    Paul

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From Tim Chow@21:1/5 to peps...@gmail.com on Wed Nov 24 19:07:20 2021
    On Wednesday, November 24, 2021 at 5:59:22 PM UTC-5, peps...@gmail.com wrote:
    It's not a very QF-friendly answer, but OTB, I would blitz and make a 5 point board.
    Yes, it pays off to 34 and 35 but it gives us too many gammons for us not to do it.
    OTB, I would also be very surprised if this is wrong. But I've been wrong too many times at rgb
    to be surprised here. In fact, I'd estimate my chances of being correct as being slightly below 50%.

    Of course, it's a terrible play at DMP and maybe that's Tim's point.
    But then it is certainly an obvious exception.

    Obvious exception to what?

    ---
    Tim Chow

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From pepstein5@gmail.com@21:1/5 to Tim Chow on Thu Nov 25 05:06:28 2021
    On Thursday, November 25, 2021 at 3:07:21 AM UTC, Tim Chow wrote:
    On Wednesday, November 24, 2021 at 5:59:22 PM UTC-5, peps...@gmail.com wrote:
    It's not a very QF-friendly answer, but OTB, I would blitz and make a 5 point board.
    Yes, it pays off to 34 and 35 but it gives us too many gammons for us not to do it.
    OTB, I would also be very surprised if this is wrong. But I've been wrong too many times at rgb
    to be surprised here. In fact, I'd estimate my chances of being correct as being slightly below 50%.

    Of course, it's a terrible play at DMP and maybe that's Tim's point.
    But then it is certainly an obvious exception.
    Obvious exception to what?

    An obvious exception to the DMP rule.

    Paul

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From Tim Chow@21:1/5 to All on Fri Nov 26 09:03:04 2021
    XGID=-a-bBBDCC--A-a----bbbbba--:1:-1:1:66:0:0:0:0:10

    X:Player 1 O:Player 2
    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | O O | | O O O O O | +---+
    | O | | O O O O | | 2 |
    | | | | +---+
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | |BAR| |
    | | | |
    | | | X |
    | X X | | X |
    | X X | | X X X O |
    | X X X | | X X X O O |
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 98 O: 132 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 2, O own cube
    X to play 66

    It's clear that 8/2(2) 7/1*(2) will win the most gammons, but of
    course it also gives O four crushing return shots from the bar,
    which could even lead to a gammon loss for X. If X chooses not
    to leave a return shot, he could play either 11/5 8/2(3) or 11/5 7/1*(3). Although 7/1*(3) puts O on the bar, it kills a checker and leaves a
    gap on the 2pt that could cause trouble later. Plus 8/2(3) gives X
    plenty of builders that could potentially PoH later. (Sometimes, in
    such positions, avoiding the hit is good because it helps trap O
    off her anchor, but I don't think that's a big factor here because O
    should have enough timing to avoid being trapped.)

    So should X make the DMP play of 11/5 8/2(3) or go for the gammon
    with 8/2(2) 7/1*(2)? If you're Stick, the answer is obvious. Others
    might have some trouble gauging the win/gammon tradeoff.

    1. Rollout¹ 11/5 8/2(3) eq:+0.774
    Player: 82.31% (G:19.28% B:0.20%)
    Opponent: 17.69% (G:0.91% B:0.02%)
    Confidence: ±0.005 (+0.769..+0.779) - [100.0%]

    2. Rollout¹ 8/2(2) 7/1*(2) eq:+0.733 (-0.042)
    Player: 77.99% (G:28.48% B:0.36%)
    Opponent: 22.01% (G:3.38% B:0.19%)
    Confidence: ±0.005 (+0.727..+0.738) - [0.0%]

    3. Rollout¹ 11/5 7/1*(3) eq:+0.655 (-0.120)
    Player: 76.92% (G:21.94% B:0.22%)
    Opponent: 23.08% (G:2.16% B:0.08%)
    Confidence: ±0.007 (+0.648..+0.662) - [0.0%]

    ¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
    Dice Seed: 271828
    Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

    eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release

    ---
    Tim Chow

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From pepstein5@gmail.com@21:1/5 to Tim Chow on Fri Nov 26 10:37:24 2021
    On Friday, November 26, 2021 at 5:03:11 PM UTC, Tim Chow wrote:
    XGID=-a-bBBDCC--A-a----bbbbba--:1:-1:1:66:0:0:0:0:10

    X:Player 1 O:Player 2
    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | O O | | O O O O O | +---+
    | O | | O O O O | | 2 |
    | | | | +---+
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | |BAR| |
    | | | |
    | | | X |
    | X X | | X |
    | X X | | X X X O |
    | X X X | | X X X O O |
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 98 O: 132 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 2, O own cube
    X to play 66
    It's clear that 8/2(2) 7/1*(2) will win the most gammons, but of
    course it also gives O four crushing return shots from the bar,
    which could even lead to a gammon loss for X. If X chooses not
    to leave a return shot, he could play either 11/5 8/2(3) or 11/5 7/1*(3). Although 7/1*(3) puts O on the bar, it kills a checker and leaves a
    gap on the 2pt that could cause trouble later. Plus 8/2(3) gives X
    plenty of builders that could potentially PoH later. (Sometimes, in
    such positions, avoiding the hit is good because it helps trap O
    off her anchor, but I don't think that's a big factor here because O
    should have enough timing to avoid being trapped.)

    So should X make the DMP play of 11/5 8/2(3) or go for the gammon
    with 8/2(2) 7/1*(2)? If you're Stick, the answer is obvious. Others
    might have some trouble gauging the win/gammon tradeoff.

    1. Rollout¹ 11/5 8/2(3) eq:+0.774
    Player: 82.31% (G:19.28% B:0.20%)
    Opponent: 17.69% (G:0.91% B:0.02%)
    Confidence: ±0.005 (+0.769..+0.779) - [100.0%]

    2. Rollout¹ 8/2(2) 7/1*(2) eq:+0.733 (-0.042)
    Player: 77.99% (G:28.48% B:0.36%)
    Opponent: 22.01% (G:3.38% B:0.19%)
    Confidence: ±0.005 (+0.727..+0.738) - [0.0%]

    3. Rollout¹ 11/5 7/1*(3) eq:+0.655 (-0.120)
    Player: 76.92% (G:21.94% B:0.22%)
    Opponent: 23.08% (G:2.16% B:0.08%)
    Confidence: ±0.007 (+0.648..+0.662) - [0.0%]

    ¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
    Dice Seed: 271828
    Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller


    Thanks for yet again providing an example of the liar's paradox.
    I find myself surprised.
    However, since I expected a surprise, I'm unsurprised to see a surprise play.

    "If the decision is made at 2A/1A, Crawford, is 8/2(2) 7/1*(2) correct?," he asked nervously;
    a sense of trepidation was apparent in his voice, as befits someone who has had years
    of experience of having their cherished bg concepts destroyed and their faith in their bg abilities rent asunder.

    Paul

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From Timothy Chow@21:1/5 to All on Tue Jun 27 09:23:57 2023
    XGID=-BbaBBB-A---cB---c-cBAcA--:1:-1:1:66:0:0:0:0:10

    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | X O | | O X X O X | +---+
    | X O | | O X O | | 2 |
    | O | | O O | +---+
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | |BAR| |
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | O | | |
    | O | | X X X O X |
    | O X | | X X X O O X |
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 150 O: 158 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 2, O own cube
    X to play 66

    ---
    Tim Chow

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From ah....Clem@21:1/5 to Timothy Chow on Tue Jun 27 21:00:42 2023
    On 6/27/2023 9:23 AM, Timothy Chow wrote:
    XGID=-BbaBBB-A---cB---c-cBAcA--:1:-1:1:66:0:0:0:0:10

    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
     +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
     | X           O    |   | O  X  X  O  X    | +---+
     | X           O    |   | O  X     O       | | 2 |
     |             O    |   | O        O       | +---+
     |                  |   |                  |
     |                  |   |                  |
     |                  |BAR|                  |
     |                  |   |                  |
     |                  |   |                  |
     | O                |   |                  |
     | O                |   | X  X  X     O  X |
     | O           X    |   | X  X  X  O  O  X |
     +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count  X: 150  O: 158 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 2, O own cube
    X to play 66

    20/8 13/7(2) looks sound. Yeah, it leaves three blots in her homeboard
    to scoop up, but it traps three checkers behind a solid five prime, with
    two of them not at the edge.

    Alternatively, 21/3* 13/7 should win more gammons. I'd play that at GG,
    but 20/8 13/7(2) looks better for unlimited.


    --
    Ah....Clem
    The future is fun, the future is fair.

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From Stick Rice@21:1/5 to ah....Clem on Wed Jun 28 08:35:34 2023
    On Tuesday, June 27, 2023 at 9:00:45 PM UTC-4, ah....Clem wrote:
    On 6/27/2023 9:23 AM, Timothy Chow wrote:
    XGID=-BbaBBB-A---cB---c-cBAcA--:1:-1:1:66:0:0:0:0:10

    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | X O | | O X X O X | +---+
    | X O | | O X O | | 2 |
    | O | | O O | +---+
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | |BAR| |
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | O | | |
    | O | | X X X O X |
    | O X | | X X X O O X |
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 150 O: 158 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 2, O own cube
    X to play 66
    20/8 13/7(2) looks sound. Yeah, it leaves three blots in her homeboard
    to scoop up, but it traps three checkers behind a solid five prime, with
    two of them not at the edge.

    Alternatively, 21/3* 13/7 should win more gammons. I'd play that at GG,
    but 20/8 13/7(2) looks better for unlimited.


    --
    Ah....Clem
    The future is fun, the future is fair.

    I don't care what the score is, that's the only play there is. The three blots we leave can hardly be attacked.

    Stick

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From Timothy Chow@21:1/5 to All on Thu Jun 29 08:36:28 2023
    XGID=-BbaBBB-A---cB---c-cBAcA--:1:-1:1:66:0:0:0:0:10

    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | X O | | O X X O X | +---+
    | X O | | O X O | | 2 |
    | O | | O O | +---+
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | |BAR| |
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | O | | |
    | O | | X X X O X |
    | O X | | X X X O O X |
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 150 O: 158 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 2, O own cube
    X to play 66

    I opted to hit loose, but the potential benefits of the loose hit
    are not worth forgoing the five-prime. It might be a different story
    if instead of hitting loose, we could PoH and O were on the edge of
    our five-prime (see variant).

    1. Rollout¹ 20/8 13/7(2) eq:+0.460
    Player: 69.47% (G:24.64% B:1.24%)
    Opponent: 30.53% (G:6.89% B:0.33%)
    Confidence: ±0.011 (+0.450..+0.471) - [100.0%]

    2. Rollout¹ 20/8(2) eq:+0.363 (-0.097)
    Player: 66.15% (G:25.02% B:1.20%)
    Opponent: 33.85% (G:8.53% B:0.34%)
    Confidence: ±0.010 (+0.353..+0.373) - [0.0%]

    3. Rollout¹ 21/9 20/8 eq:+0.264 (-0.197)
    Player: 63.07% (G:24.38% B:1.15%)
    Opponent: 36.93% (G:10.56% B:0.53%)
    Confidence: ±0.009 (+0.254..+0.273) - [0.0%]

    4. Rollout¹ 21/15 20/14 20/8 eq:+0.237 (-0.224)
    Player: 62.03% (G:25.57% B:1.44%)
    Opponent: 37.97% (G:12.50% B:0.64%)
    Confidence: ±0.009 (+0.228..+0.245) - [0.0%]

    5. Rollout¹ 20/14(2) 13/7(2) eq:+0.216 (-0.244)
    Player: 60.87% (G:25.57% B:1.19%)
    Opponent: 39.13% (G:10.93% B:0.58%)
    Confidence: ±0.011 (+0.205..+0.227) - [0.0%]

    6. Rollout¹ 21/9 13/7(2) eq:+0.195 (-0.266)
    Player: 60.55% (G:22.18% B:0.89%)
    Opponent: 39.45% (G:8.75% B:0.33%)
    Confidence: ±0.009 (+0.185..+0.204) - [0.0%]

    7. Rollout¹ 21/3* 20/14 eq:+0.189 (-0.271)
    Player: 60.91% (G:24.43% B:1.09%)
    Opponent: 39.09% (G:12.21% B:1.09%)
    Confidence: ±0.010 (+0.178..+0.199) - [0.0%]

    ¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
    Dice Seed: 271828
    Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

    eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

    -------
    Variant
    -------

    XGID=-BabBBB-A---cB---c-cBAcA--:1:-1:1:66:0:0:0:0:10

    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | X O | | O X X O X | +---+
    | X O | | O X O | | 2 |
    | O | | O O | +---+
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | |BAR| |
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | O | | |
    | O | | X X X O X |
    | O X | | X X X O O X |
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 150 O: 157 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 2, O own cube
    X to play 66

    1. Rollout¹ 20/2* 8/2 eq:+0.472
    Player: 69.74% (G:24.95% B:0.54%)
    Opponent: 30.26% (G:5.90% B:0.22%)
    Confidence: ±0.008 (+0.465..+0.480) - [100.0%]

    2. Rollout¹ 20/8 13/7(2) eq:+0.404 (-0.069)
    Player: 67.25% (G:25.77% B:1.01%)
    Opponent: 32.75% (G:7.97% B:0.39%)
    Confidence: ±0.009 (+0.395..+0.412) - [0.0%]

    ¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
    Dice Seed: 271828
    Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

    eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

    ---
    Tim Chow

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From Timothy Chow@21:1/5 to All on Wed Nov 1 09:41:39 2023
    XGID=-aa-BBC-B---cC---cbcb--AB-:0:0:1:66:0:0:0:0:10

    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | X O O | | O O X X |
    | X O O | | O O X |
    | X O | | O |
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | |BAR| |
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | O | | X |
    | O X | | X X X |
    | O X | | X X X O O |
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 162 O: 152 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 1
    X to play 66

    ---
    Tim Chow

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From Timothy Chow@21:1/5 to All on Sat Nov 4 13:06:39 2023
    XGID=-aa-BBC-B---cC---cbcb--AB-:0:0:1:66:0:0:0:0:10

    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | X O O | | O O X X |
    | X O O | | O O X |
    | X O | | O |
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | |BAR| |
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | O | | X |
    | O X | | X X X |
    | O X | | X X X O O |
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 162 O: 152 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 1
    X to play 66

    This is one of X's best rolls, but it's still not very pleasant to play,
    since after 8/2*(2), X has to choose between hitting loose on the 1pt
    with 13/1*, and making 5 out of 6 points with 13/7(2) but leaving a blot
    on the midpoint and potentially allowing O to anchor on X's 1pt. XG
    favors hitting twice, but see also the variant below.

    1. Rollout¹ 13/1* 8/2*(2) eq:+0.059
    Player: 47.43% (G:27.35% B:0.44%)
    Opponent: 52.57% (G:16.42% B:1.07%)
    Confidence: ±0.016 (+0.043..+0.075) - [100.0%]

    2. Rollout¹ 13/7(2) 8/2*(2) eq:-0.034 (-0.093)
    Player: 46.13% (G:23.27% B:0.89%)
    Opponent: 53.87% (G:16.70% B:1.06%)
    Confidence: ±0.018 (-0.053..-0.016) - [0.0%]

    ¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
    Dice Seed: 271828
    Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

    eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

    -------
    Variant
    -------

    XGID=-aaABBB-B---cC---cbcb--AB-:0:0:1:66:0:0:0:0:10

    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | X O O | | O O X X |
    | X O O | | O O X |
    | X O | | O |
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | |BAR| |
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | O | | |
    | O X | | X X X |
    | O X | | X X X X O O |
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 159 O: 152 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 1
    X to play 66

    1. Rollout¹ 13/1* 8/2*(2) eq:-0.270
    Player: 41.43% (G:22.12% B:0.38%)
    Opponent: 58.57% (G:21.44% B:1.92%)
    Confidence: ±0.010 (-0.279..-0.260) - [98.0%]

    2. Rollout¹ 13/7(2) 8/2*(2) eq:-0.283 (-0.014)
    Player: 41.13% (G:20.05% B:0.71%)
    Opponent: 58.87% (G:21.06% B:1.69%)
    Confidence: ±0.009 (-0.292..-0.275) - [2.0%]

    ¹ 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
    Dice Seed: 271828
    Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

    eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

    ---
    Tim Chow

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From Timothy Chow@21:1/5 to All on Mon Nov 20 17:20:57 2023
    XGID=--B--BB-Ba--dE--abbeA---A-:0:0:1:66:0:0:0:0:10

    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | X O O O | | O X X |
    | X O O | | O |
    | X | | O |
    | X | | O |
    | X | | O |
    | |BAR| |
    | | | |
    | O | | |
    | O | | |
    | O X | | X X X |
    | O O X | | X X X |
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 151 O: 137 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 1
    X to play 66

    ---
    Tim Chow

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From Timothy Chow@21:1/5 to All on Wed Nov 22 09:59:26 2023
    XGID=--B--BB-Ba--dE--abbeA---A-:0:0:1:66:0:0:0:0:10

    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | X O O O | | O X X |
    | X O O | | O |
    | X | | O |
    | X | | O |
    | X | | O |
    | |BAR| |
    | | | |
    | O | | |
    | O | | |
    | O X | | X X X |
    | O O X | | X X X |
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 151 O: 137 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 1
    X to play 66

    This roll puts X ahead in the race, so a natural plan is to race with
    20/8 13/7(2). However, the alternative of 13/1(2) gives X a four-point
    board (versus O's one-point board) and good chances of hitting a shot.
    13/1(2) certainly wins more gammons.

    In the variant, X is further ahead in the race, and 20/8 still allows
    X to make a four-point board.

    1. Rollout¹ 13/1(2) eq:-0.053
    Player: 46.99% (G:15.40% B:0.20%)
    Opponent: 53.01% (G:8.31% B:0.33%)
    Confidence: ±0.010 (-0.063..-0.044) - [100.0%]

    2. Rollout¹ 20/8 13/7(2) eq:-0.141 (-0.088)
    Player: 46.03% (G:7.32% B:0.12%)
    Opponent: 53.97% (G:5.30% B:0.13%)
    Confidence: ±0.010 (-0.151..-0.131) - [0.0%]

    ¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
    Dice Seed: 271828
    Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

    eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

    -------
    Variant
    -------

    XGID=-AB--BB-Aa--dE--abbeA---A-:0:0:1:66:0:0:0:0:10

    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | X O O O | | O X X |
    | X O O | | O |
    | X | | O |
    | X | | O |
    | X | | O |
    | |BAR| |
    | | | |
    | O | | |
    | O | | |
    | O | | X X X |
    | O O X | | X X X X |
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 144 O: 137 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 1
    X to play 66

    1. Rollout¹ 20/8 13/1 eq:+0.005
    Player: 49.51% (G:12.28% B:0.11%)
    Opponent: 50.49% (G:5.70% B:0.17%)
    Confidence: ±0.011 (-0.006..+0.016) - [59.0%]

    2. Rollout¹ 13/7(2) 13/1 eq:+0.003 (-0.002)
    Player: 48.92% (G:17.16% B:0.24%)
    Opponent: 51.08% (G:8.45% B:0.41%)
    Confidence: ±0.011 (-0.008..+0.014) - [41.0%]

    ¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
    Dice Seed: 271828
    Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

    eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

    ---
    Tim Chow

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)