On Tuesday, November 23, 2021 at 8:12:16 AM UTC, J R wrote:
On Monday, November 22, 2021 at 10:37:22 AM UTC-5, peps...@gmail.com wrote:
The below position is a very thin double and a huge take.
(I missed the double).
Our strength isn't so much that our position is so marvellous, but rather that we have quite a few crushing market losers.
Since this is right on the border between doubling and holding, I'd expect to see an approx 25% probability of us getting a market losing sequence, and that's probably a decent estimate.
I think this position Ohaganizes quite well.
Paul
XGID=--a-BaE-AA--eD---c-d-B--a-:0:0:1:00:8:3:3:0:10
X:Daniel O:eXtremeGammon
Score is X:8 O:3. Unlimited Game, Jacoby Beaver +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O | | O X O |
| X O | | O X |
| X O | | O |
| X | | O |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| O | | X |
| O | | X |
| O | | X |
| O | | X X |
| O X X | | X O X O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 149 O: 157 X-O: 8-3
Cube: 1
X on roll, cube action
Analyzed in XG Roller+
Player Winning Chances: 63.84% (G:23.70% B:0.91%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 36.16% (G:7.25% B:0.22%)
Cubeless Equities: No Double=+0.448, Double=+0.897
Cubeful Equities:
No double: +0.620 (-0.021)
Double/Take: +0.640
Double/Pass: +1.000 (+0.360)
Best Cube action: Double / Take
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10
Seems like a bigger double to me.
One possible reason for the fact that it seems like a bigger double to you
is that it is a bigger double.
Would you (or Tim) like to post the rollout?
Paul
--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)