XGID=-a-B-BDB----bC---c-dbBba--:0:0:1:63:0:0:0:0:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O | | O O X O O |
| X O | | O O X O |
| X O | | O |
| | | O |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | X |
| | | X |
| O X | | X X X |
| O X | | X X X O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 135 O: 116 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 63

---
Tim Chow

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

XGID=-a-B-BDB----bC---c-dbBba--:0:0:1:63:0:0:0:0:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O | | O O X O O |
| X O | | O O X O |
| X O | | O |
| | | O |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | X |
| | | X |
| O X | | X X X |
| O X | | X X X O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 135 O: 116 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 63

Magriel's criteria suggest that X should be playing boldly
to contain O's straggler. I tried 13/4 but 13/10 13/7 is a
more effective priming play. See the variant to get a sense
for how important it is that O has a blot in her board.

1. Rollout¹ 13/10 13/7 eq:+0.217
Player: 55.74% (G:12.81% B:0.55%)
Opponent: 44.26% (G:9.63% B:0.29%)
Confidence: ±0.012 (+0.204..+0.229) - [100.0%]

2. Rollout¹ 13/4 eq:+0.105 (-0.112)
Player: 53.41% (G:11.83% B:0.37%)
Opponent: 46.59% (G:11.57% B:0.32%)
Confidence: ±0.010 (+0.095..+0.115) - [0.0%]

3. Rollout¹ 13/7 6/3 eq:+0.102 (-0.115)
Player: 52.16% (G:9.87% B:0.28%)
Opponent: 47.84% (G:8.40% B:0.28%)
Confidence: ±0.011 (+0.091..+0.113) - [0.0%]

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release

-------
Variant
-------

XGID=-a-B-BDB----cC---c-dbBb---:0:0:1:63:0:0:0:0:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O | | O O X O |
| X O | | O O X O |
| X O | | O |
| | | O |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | X |
| O | | X |
| O X | | X X X |
| O X | | X X X O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 135 O: 127 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 63

1. Rollout¹ 13/10 13/7 eq:+0.186
Player: 54.63% (G:12.52% B:0.31%)
Opponent: 45.37% (G:8.49% B:0.30%)
Confidence: ±0.010 (+0.176..+0.197) - [99.9%]

2. Rollout¹ 13/7 6/3 eq:+0.163 (-0.024)
Player: 53.90% (G:11.15% B:0.21%)
Opponent: 46.10% (G:7.31% B:0.27%)
Confidence: ±0.012 (+0.151..+0.174) - [0.1%]

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release

---
Tim Chow

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

XGID=--aABBBBB---dB---B-cbb-c--:1:-1:1:42:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X X | | O O O O | +---+
| X X | | O O O O | | 2 |
| | | O O | +---+
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| O | | |
| O | | |
| O X X | | X X X |
| O X X | | X X X X O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 123 O: 117 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, O own cube
X to play 42

---
Tim Chow

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

On 7/24/2023 9:07 AM, Timothy Chow wrote:

XGID=--aABBBBB---dB---B-cbb-c--:1:-1:1:42:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
 +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
 | X           X    |   | O  O  O     O    | +---+
 | X           X    |   | O  O  O     O    | | 2 |
 |                  |   | O           O    | +---+
 |                  |   |                  |
 |                  |   |                  |
 |                  |BAR|                  |
 |                  |   |                  |
 | O                |   |                  |
 | O                |   |                  |
 | O           X  X |   | X  X  X          |
 | O           X  X |   | X  X  X  X  O    |
 +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count  X: 123  O: 117 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, O own cube
X to play 42

Simply covering up by playing off the seven point is safe, but with the
race deficit it looks weak.

13/7 dupes aces and works really well the other 25 shakes so I'll play that.

--
Ah....Clem
The future is fun, the future is fair.

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

XGID=--aABBBBB---dB---B-cbb-c--:1:-1:1:42:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X X | | O O O O | +---+
| X X | | O O O O | | 2 |
| | | O O | +---+
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| O | | |
| O | | |
| O X X | | X X X |
| O X X | | X X X X O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 123 O: 117 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, O own cube
X to play 42

Given O's strong board, I was leery of leaving a direct shot, but
a five-prime with the opponent not at the edge is a huge asset.
We have an advantage, but it's not so big that we need to play
safe. Even if O had a stronger board, XG would still leave the 3pt
slotted (see variant).

As for 13/11 13/9 versus 13/7, it's definitely better to give
yourself two ways to make a six-prime (either the front or the
back).

1. Rollout¹ 13/11 13/9 eq:+0.505
Player: 76.41% (G:16.02% B:0.57%)
Opponent: 23.59% (G:11.00% B:0.32%)
Confidence: ±0.008 (+0.497..+0.514) - [100.0%]

2. Rollout¹ 13/7 eq:+0.366 (-0.140)
Player: 71.39% (G:15.56% B:0.61%)
Opponent: 28.61% (G:11.62% B:0.24%)
Confidence: ±0.008 (+0.358..+0.374) - [0.0%]

3. Rollout¹ 7/5 7/3 eq:+0.349 (-0.156)
Player: 68.17% (G:16.59% B:0.37%)
Opponent: 31.83% (G:7.54% B:0.13%)
Confidence: ±0.008 (+0.342..+0.357) - [0.0%]

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

-------
Variant
-------

XGID=--aABBBBB---dB---Bbbbbb---:1:-1:1:42:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X X O | | O O O O | +---+
| X X O | | O O O O | | 2 |
| | | | +---+
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| O | | |
| O | | |
| O X X | | X X X |
| O X X | | X X X X O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 123 O: 125 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, O own cube
X to play 42

1. Rollout¹ 13/11 13/9 eq:+0.300
Player: 69.51% (G:14.50% B:0.42%)
Opponent: 30.49% (G:12.77% B:0.51%)
Confidence: ±0.013 (+0.287..+0.313) - [99.8%]

2. Rollout¹ 7/5 7/3 eq:+0.277 (-0.023)
Player: 66.06% (G:14.80% B:0.23%)
Opponent: 33.94% (G:8.15% B:0.26%)
Confidence: ±0.008 (+0.269..+0.286) - [0.2%]

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

---
Tim Chow

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)