41 is easy to play of course, but that's not my question.
My confusion is that XG's 4 ply analysis considers this a nullo roll
which improves my equity by only 0.082.
This seems highly counter-intuitive.
I'm a slight underdog to hit XG on its 5 point.
If I care about the result (rather than caring exclusively about my PR),
I'm going to be thinking "I hope I get lucky and hit on the 5! I really hope so."
But now it turns out that the hit hardly gained much equity at all.
Why is that?

Paul

XGID=-----aD-C-BAbCA-ad-dab---A:1:1:1:41:0:10:3:0:10
X:Daniel O:eXtremeGammon

Score is X:0 O:10. Unlimited Game, Jacoby Beaver
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X X O O | | O O O |
| X O | | O O |
| X O | | O |
| O | | O |
| | X | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | X |
| X | | X | +---+
| O X X | | X | | 2 |
| O X X X | | X O | +---+
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 157 O: 124 X-O: 0-10
Cube: 2, X own cube
X to play 41

1. 3-ply Bar/20* eq:-0.034
Player: 45.95% (G:8.02% B:0.37%)
Opponent: 54.05% (G:19.19% B:0.71%)

2. 1-ply Bar/24 14/10 eq:-0.442 (-0.408)
Player: 33.30% (G:5.19% B:0.36%)
Opponent: 66.70% (G:27.37% B:0.72%)

3. 1-ply Bar/24 11/7 eq:-0.492 (-0.457)
Player: 32.56% (G:5.31% B:0.37%)
Opponent: 67.44% (G:30.18% B:1.24%)

4. 1-ply Bar/24 13/9 eq:-0.571 (-0.536)
Player: 31.45% (G:5.42% B:0.34%)
Opponent: 68.55% (G:34.39% B:2.39%)

5. 1-ply Bar/24 8/4 eq:-0.587 (-0.553)
Player: 30.64% (G:5.39% B:0.35%)
Opponent: 69.36% (G:34.51% B:2.01%)


eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

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On 11/19/2021 5:51 AM, peps...@gmail.com wrote:

41 is easy to play of course, but that's not my question.
My confusion is that XG's 4 ply analysis considers this a nullo roll
which improves my equity by only 0.082.
This seems highly counter-intuitive.

You can get insight into these questions by going to the "Analyze"
menu and selecting "Dice Distribution." There you will see that
hitting twice, or pointing on your own 5pt, or even hitting and
covering your 11pt, are all considered by XG to be better rolls
than 41.

At least, that's my take on it. If Nasti Chestikov responds, I
will defer to him, since he seems to be the world expert on what
constitutes a lucky roll.

---
Tim Chow

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
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On Friday, November 19, 2021 at 1:47:28 PM UTC, Tim Chow wrote:

On 11/19/2021 5:51 AM, peps...@gmail.com wrote:

41 is easy to play of course, but that's not my question.
My confusion is that XG's 4 ply analysis considers this a nullo roll
which improves my equity by only 0.082.
This seems highly counter-intuitive.

You can get insight into these questions by going to the "Analyze"
menu and selecting "Dice Distribution." There you will see that
hitting twice, or pointing on your own 5pt, or even hitting and
covering your 11pt, are all considered by XG to be better rolls
than 41.

At least, that's my take on it. If Nasti Chestikov responds, I
will defer to him, since he seems to be the world expert on what
constitutes a lucky roll.

He's not the only expert.
Where he errs is that he assumes that a good roll should never be assumed
lucky if the good outcome was more likely than not to occur.
For example, if you're in a final roll position in the bearoff, you aren't lucky to
bearoff and win if you had more than 18 outs.

Paul

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