XGID=-a--CaCABB--dA---bbcB-b--A:1:-1:1:51:0:0:0:0:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O O | | O X O | +---+
| O O | | O X O | | 2 |
| | | O | +---+
| | | |
| | X | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| O | | |
| O | | X X |
| O X X | | X X |
| O X X X | | X O X O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 149 O: 150 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, O own cube
X to play 51

---
Tim Chow

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

XGID=-a--CaCABB--dA---bbcB-b--A:1:-1:1:51:0:0:0:0:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O O | | O X O | +---+
| O O | | O X O | | 2 |
| | | O | +---+
| | | |
| | X | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| O | | |
| O | | X X |
| O X X | | X X |
| O X X X | | X O X O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 149 O: 150 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, O own cube
X to play 51

Magriel's safe/bold criteria point toward a bold play, since X has more checkers back and has an anchor while O does not. Nevertheless, the
rollout below favors the safe play 7/6 over the bold hit 6/5*. Part of
the reason is that 6/5* uses the last spare on X's 6pt; see the variant
below. But also, X is slightly ahead in the pip count and 6/5* would
leave three blots lying around that O could potentially pick up.

1. Rollout¹ Bar/20 7/6 eq:-0.243
Player: 47.14% (G:10.63% B:0.28%)
Opponent: 52.86% (G:7.60% B:0.30%)
Confidence: ±0.009 (-0.253..-0.234) - [100.0%]

2. Rollout¹ Bar/20 8/7 eq:-0.326 (-0.083)
Player: 44.93% (G:10.18% B:0.33%)
Opponent: 55.07% (G:9.79% B:0.36%)
Confidence: ±0.011 (-0.336..-0.315) - [0.0%]

3. Rollout¹ Bar/20 6/5* eq:-0.339 (-0.096)
Player: 45.71% (G:13.19% B:0.43%)
Opponent: 54.29% (G:15.93% B:0.68%)
Confidence: ±0.012 (-0.351..-0.326) - [0.0%]

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release

-------
Variant
-------

XGID=-a--BaDABB--dA---bbcB-b--A:1:-1:1:51:0:0:0:0:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O O | | O X O | +---+
| O O | | O X O | | 2 |
| | | O | +---+
| | | |
| | X | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| O | | X |
| O | | X |
| O X X | | X X |
| O X X X | | X O X O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 151 O: 150 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, O own cube
X to play 51

1. Rollout¹ Bar/20 6/5* eq:-0.270
Player: 47.75% (G:13.78% B:0.52%)
Opponent: 52.25% (G:14.87% B:0.66%)
Confidence: ±0.012 (-0.283..-0.258) - [66.2%]

2. Rollout¹ Bar/20 7/6 eq:-0.274 (-0.003)
Player: 46.27% (G:10.11% B:0.29%)
Opponent: 53.73% (G:7.89% B:0.30%)
Confidence: ±0.010 (-0.283..-0.264) - [33.8%]

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release

---
Tim Chow

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)