The position below seems highly OHaganistic.
We have a number of devastating hits.
On the other hand, our misses give a more-or-less even position.
How many hits do we have -- 15 -- fours + 31 + 22 + 66
O Hagan would say that we only need 9 for a double and we have 15.
But our double is ultra-thin, very borderline.
So I think we needed all 15 of our shots to justify the double.
A variantization of this position to give only 9 shots would have to be
a hold. This position seems to OHaganize really badly.
Paul
XGID=-B--BBBBBa--cA---cbd-B-b--:0:0:1:00:3:7:3:0:10
X:Daniel O:eXtremeGammon
Score is X:3 O:7. Unlimited Game, Jacoby Beaver +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O O | | O X O |
| O O | | O X O |
| O | | O |
| | | O |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| O | | |
| O X X | | X X X X |
| O O X X | | X X X X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 117 O: 121 X-O: 3-7
Cube: 1
X on roll, cube action
Analyzed in 4-ply
Player Winning Chances: 59.61% (G:17.86% B:0.13%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 40.39% (G:3.55% B:0.08%)
Cubeless Equities: No Double=+0.336, Double=+0.669
Cubeful Equities:
No double: +0.368 (-0.015)
Double/Take: +0.382
Double/Pass: +1.000 (+0.618)
Best Cube action: Double / Take
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10
On Tuesday, November 16, 2021 at 6:09:26 PM UTC-5, peps...@gmail.com wrote:
The position below seems highly OHaganistic.
We have a number of devastating hits.
On the other hand, our misses give a more-or-less even position.
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10
That's because you don't always lose the market when you hit and sometimes you will lose you market when you hit by only a tiny amount. O'Hagan's Law works fine, again, like most bg axioms, it just needs to be understood in its entirety.
On 11/17/2021 1:59 PM, J R wrote:
On Tuesday, November 16, 2021 at 6:09:26 PM UTC-5, peps...@gmail.com wrote:
The position below seems highly OHaganistic.
We have a number of devastating hits.
On the other hand, our misses give a more-or-less even position.
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10
That's because you don't always lose the market when you hit and sometimes you will lose you market when you hit by only a tiny amount. O'Hagan's Law works fine, again, like most bg axioms, it just needs to be understood in its entirety.That, and O'Hagan's law says nine market losers AND nothing really bad.
Here, a miss followed by big doubles makes for a bad game for X.
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