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  • I was in a restaurant but I thought I was at the movies.

    From J R@21:1/5 to peps...@gmail.com on Thu Aug 19 02:35:44 2021
    On Thursday, July 22, 2021 at 3:32:19 PM UTC-4, peps...@gmail.com wrote:
    Apparently, XG sees the below as being a restaurant meal (where you
    pay later). But I was surprised that my money was turned down upfront.
    It's a very difficult position to clear, and the opponent's two blots means that I've got chances even if I'm hit now.
    Why not pay now with a crushing racing lead if I'm missed and return
    chances if I'm hit?

    Paul

    XGID=--BBBbCBB--Ba-----acbbbaa-:1:-1:1:63:0:6:3:0:10
    X:Daniel O:eXtremeGammon

    Score is X:0 O:6. Unlimited Game, Jacoby Beaver +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | O | | O O O O O O | +---+
    | | | O O O O | | 2 |
    | | | O | +---+
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | |BAR| |
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | | | X |
    | X X X | | X O X X X |
    | O X X X | | X O X X X |
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 88 O: 105 X-O: 0-6
    Cube: 2, O own cube
    X to play 63

    1. XG Roller+ 7/4 7/1 eq:+0.311
    Player: 69.12% (G:2.11% B:0.06%)
    Opponent: 30.88% (G:1.64% B:0.02%)

    2. XG Roller+ 11/2 eq:+0.222 (-0.089)
    Player: 63.05% (G:9.72% B:1.11%)
    Opponent: 36.95% (G:4.38% B:0.09%)

    3. 2-ply 7/1 4/1 eq:+0.034 (-0.278)
    Player: 58.79% (G:6.94% B:0.33%)
    Opponent: 41.21% (G:6.92% B:0.10%)

    4. 2-ply 8/2 6/3 eq:+0.029 (-0.283)
    Player: 58.86% (G:5.51% B:0.30%)
    Opponent: 41.14% (G:6.05% B:0.07%)

    5. 2-ply 7/1 6/3 eq:-0.002 (-0.314)
    Player: 57.71% (G:6.29% B:0.38%)
    Opponent: 42.29% (G:7.44% B:0.09%)


    eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

    Other than the obvious of his board is already strong enough if he hits you/a lot of hitting numbers cover, I think you're greatly overestimating how often you're forced to pay later. I'd be willing to bet it's less than half the games where you end up
    leaving a direct shot if you make the right play/don't pay now. You have several turns in general to clear points. What will happen often enough is you roll doubles or [53] or ... and people always forget about this variation, your opponent simply
    leaves. When the race isn't entirely blown there's always the chance that it's the opponent who rolls big and leaves (with big doubles here mainly obv).

    Also, waiting on his board to get worse isn't really a thing here. (after it gets better) His board basically always gets better and he's able to hold it.

    Stick

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