From
Timothy Chow@21:1/5 to
All on Wed Nov 17 22:53:27 2021
The big mistake I made here was that somehow I judged the second
position to be better for X than the first position. It seemed
to me OTB that hitting O's checker on my bar point was a bigger
threat than hitting O in the first position. But actually, X is
way better off in the first position, and XG says that it's D/P
even ATS. In the second position, XG doubles for money but not ATS.
---------
Problem 1
---------
XGID=-aBaBBC-----cD---b-bB-cba-:0:0:1:00:4:2:0:7:10
X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:4 O:2 7 pt.(s) match.
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O | | O X O O O |
| X O | | O X O O |
| X | | O |
| X | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| O | | X |
| O | | X X X X |
| O | | X X X O X O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 132 O: 127 X-O: 4-2/7
Cube: 1
X on roll, cube action
Analyzed in Rollout
No double
Player Winning Chances: 71.88% (G:33.52% B:1.64%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 28.12% (G:6.18% B:0.14%)
Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 71.98% (G:33.87% B:3.03%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 28.02% (G:6.27% B:0.23%)
Cubeful Equities:
No double: +0.847 (-0.153)
Double/Take: +1.027 (+0.027)
Double/Pass: +1.000
Best Cube action: Double / Pass
Rollout:
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Confidence No Double: ± 0.010 (+0.837..+0.858)
Confidence Double: ± 0.016 (+1.010..+1.043)
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release, MET: Kazaross XG2
---------
Problem 2
---------
XGID=--CaBBBa----cD---b-bB-cba-:0:0:1:00:4:2:0:7:10
X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:4 O:2 7 pt.(s) match.
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O | | O X O O O |
| X O | | O X O O |
| X | | O |
| X | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| O | | X |
| O | | X X X X |
| O O | | X X X O X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 128 O: 121 X-O: 4-2/7
Cube: 1
X on roll, cube action
Analyzed in Rollout
No double
Player Winning Chances: 65.56% (G:29.47% B:1.10%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 34.44% (G:6.56% B:0.19%)
Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 65.62% (G:29.88% B:1.69%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 34.38% (G:6.71% B:0.28%)
Cubeful Equities:
No double: +0.618
Double/Take: +0.572 (-0.046)
Double/Pass: +1.000 (+0.382)
Best Cube action: No double / Take
Percentage of wrong pass needed to make the double decision right: 9.6%
Rollout:
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Confidence No Double: ± 0.010 (+0.607..+0.628)
Confidence Double: ± 0.016 (+0.556..+0.589)
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release, MET: Kazaross XG2
---
Tim Chow
--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
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