• Which hit?

    From Timothy Chow@21:1/5 to All on Wed Aug 18 08:50:39 2021
    Note that the score is 6-away/3-away.


    XGID=-aCC-BBa--A-aB---c-bbb-cAA:0:0:1:31:1:4:0:7:10

    X:Player 1 O:Player 2
    Score is X:1 O:4 7 pt.(s) match.
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | X O | | O O O O X |
    | X O | | O O O O |
    | O | | O |
    | | | |
    | | X | |
    | |BAR| |
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | | | X X |
    | | | X X X X |
    | O X O | | X X X X O |
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 122 O: 115 X-O: 1-4/7
    Cube: 1
    X to play 31

    ---
    Tim Chow

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From Timothy Chow@21:1/5 to All on Mon Aug 23 23:45:36 2021
    XGID=-aCC-BBa--A-aB---c-bbb-cAA:0:0:1:31:1:4:0:7:10

    X:Player 1 O:Player 2
    Score is X:1 O:4 7 pt.(s) match.
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | X O | | O O O O X |
    | X O | | O O O O |
    | O | | O |
    | | | |
    | | X | |
    | |BAR| |
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | | | X X |
    | | | X X X X |
    | O X O | | X X X X O |
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 122 O: 115 X-O: 1-4/7
    Cube: 1
    X to play 31

    This one is a little unusual. In general, suppose I were to tell you:

    1. There are two plays A and B in a certain position.
    2. The bot prefers A at 6-away/3-away and B for money.
    3. One of the two plays is more gammonish than the other one.

    You would probably expect that A is the more gammonish play. But here,
    bar/22 13/12* is more gammonish than bar/24 10/7*, yet XG prefers
    bar/24 10/7* at 6-away/3-away and bar/22 13/12* for money. The reason
    is that the cube is still centered. If the cube were turned then XG
    would prefer bar/22 13/12* at 6-away/3-away as well. But with the cube centered, bar/22 10/7* followed by a dance gives X a very efficient cube
    at 6-away/3-away.

    1. Rollout¹ Bar/24 10/7* eq:+0.292
    Player: 49.54% (G:21.70% B:0.96%)
    Opponent: 50.46% (G:18.08% B:2.66%)
    Confidence: ±0.014 (+0.278..+0.305) - [100.0%]

    2. Rollout¹ Bar/22 13/12* eq:+0.186 (-0.106)
    Player: 51.80% (G:25.58% B:1.38%)
    Opponent: 48.20% (G:23.42% B:4.33%)
    Confidence: ±0.011 (+0.175..+0.197) - [0.0%]

    3. Rollout¹ Bar/22 2/1* eq:+0.089 (-0.202)
    Player: 49.52% (G:26.61% B:1.26%)
    Opponent: 50.48% (G:23.60% B:3.57%)
    Confidence: ±0.010 (+0.080..+0.099) - [0.0%]

    ¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
    Dice Seed: 271828
    Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

    eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release, MET: Kazaross XG2

    -----
    Money
    -----

    XGID=-aCC-BBa--A-aB---c-bbb-cAA:0:0:1:31:0:0:0:0:10

    X:Player 1 O:Player 2
    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | X O | | O O O O X |
    | X O | | O O O O |
    | O | | O |
    | | | |
    | | X | |
    | |BAR| |
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | | | X X |
    | | | X X X X |
    | O X O | | X X X X O |
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 122 O: 115 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 1
    X to play 31

    1. Rollout¹ Bar/22 13/12* eq:+0.112
    Player: 51.87% (G:25.38% B:1.42%)
    Opponent: 48.13% (G:23.22% B:3.56%)
    Confidence: ±0.011 (+0.101..+0.124) - [100.0%]

    2. Rollout¹ Bar/24 10/7* eq:+0.032 (-0.080)
    Player: 49.41% (G:21.24% B:0.91%)
    Opponent: 50.59% (G:17.87% B:1.62%)
    Confidence: ±0.015 (+0.018..+0.047) - [0.0%]

    3. Rollout¹ Bar/22 2/1* eq:+0.025 (-0.088)
    Player: 49.73% (G:26.52% B:1.29%)
    Opponent: 50.27% (G:23.94% B:2.64%)
    Confidence: ±0.009 (+0.015..+0.034) - [0.0%]

    ¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
    Dice Seed: 271828
    Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

    eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release

    ---
    Tim Chow

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From Timothy Chow@21:1/5 to All on Tue Sep 14 21:57:48 2021
    XGID=-b---BC-C-a-cD---badAAb--A:0:0:1:43:0:0:0:0:10

    X:Player 1 O:Player 2
    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | X O O | | O X X O |
    | X O | | O O |
    | X | | O |
    | X | | O |
    | | X | |
    | |BAR| |
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | O X | | X |
    | O X | | X X O |
    | O O X | | X X O |
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 170 O: 155 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 1
    X to play 43

    ---
    Tim Chow

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From badgolferman@21:1/5 to Timothy Chow on Wed Sep 15 13:22:58 2021
    Timothy Chow wrote:

    XGID=-b---BC-C-a-cD---badAAb--A:0:0:1:43:0:0:0:0:10

    X:Player 1 O:Player 2
    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | X O O | | O X X O |
    | X O | | O O |
    | X | | O |
    | X | | O |
    | | X | |
    | |BAR| |
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | O X | | X |
    | O X | | X X O |
    | O O X | | X X O | +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 170 O: 155 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 1
    X to play 43

    ---
    Tim Chow


    Entering on the 4 is given so that leaves what to do with the 3. I
    choose 13/10* because that brings another builder down, retards the
    opponent's attempt to escape. Hitting on the 18-point doesn't add much
    value because my men are already advanced in the opponent's home board.

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From BlueDice@21:1/5 to Tim Chow on Wed Sep 15 07:08:06 2021
    On Wednesday, September 15, 2021 at 2:57:49 AM UTC+1, Tim Chow wrote:
    XGID=-b---BC-C-a-cD---badAAb--A:0:0:1:43:0:0:0:0:10

    X:Player 1 O:Player 2
    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | X O O | | O X X O |
    | X O | | O O |
    | X | | O |
    | X | | O |
    | | X | |
    | |BAR| |
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | O X | | X |
    | O X | | X X O |
    | O O X | | X X O |
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 170 O: 155 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 1
    X to play 43

    ---
    Tim Chow

    10*
    For:
    Less return shots, less blots.
    Security of a good anchor.
    Strengthening X's prime.
    Against:
    Gains less pips.
    Strips the mid.

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From Timothy Chow@21:1/5 to All on Sat Sep 18 19:05:32 2021
    XGID=-b---BC-C-a-cD---badAAb--A:0:0:1:43:0:0:0:0:10

    X:Player 1 O:Player 2
    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | X O O | | O X X O |
    | X O | | O O |
    | X | | O |
    | X | | O |
    | | X | |
    | |BAR| |
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | O X | | X |
    | O X | | X X O |
    | O O X | | X X O |
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 170 O: 155 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 1
    X to play 43

    Normally hitting in the opponent's outer board is better than hitting
    in one's own outer board, both because it gains more pips and because
    it interferes with the opponent's plan to make strong points. But I
    have noticed recently that I frequently overlook the fact that if
    you have to *give up a good anchor to hit* in the opponent's outer
    board, then that will typically swing the balance in favor of hitting
    the checker in your own outer board. Check out the variant below.

    1. Rollout¹ Bar/21 13/10* eq:+0.669
    Player: 64.64% (G:22.08% B:1.63%)
    Opponent: 35.36% (G:9.11% B:0.36%)
    Confidence: ±0.018 (+0.651..+0.686) - [100.0%]

    2. Rollout¹ Bar/18* eq:+0.535 (-0.133)
    Player: 61.71% (G:21.29% B:1.78%)
    Opponent: 38.29% (G:10.87% B:0.60%)
    Confidence: ±0.019 (+0.516..+0.555) - [0.0%]

    ¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
    Dice Seed: 271828
    Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

    eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release

    -------
    Variant
    -------

    XGID=-b---BC-C-a-cD---badA-bA-A:0:0:1:43:0:0:0:0:10

    X:Player 1 O:Player 2
    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | X O O | | O X O X |
    | X O | | O O |
    | X | | O |
    | X | | O |
    | | X | |
    | |BAR| |
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | O X | | X |
    | O X | | X X O |
    | O O X | | X X O |
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 172 O: 155 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 1
    X to play 43

    1. Rollout¹ Bar/18* eq:+0.495
    Player: 60.91% (G:21.00% B:1.74%)
    Opponent: 39.09% (G:11.27% B:0.60%)
    Confidence: ±0.017 (+0.478..+0.512) - [100.0%]

    2. Rollout¹ Bar/21 13/10* eq:+0.444 (-0.050)
    Player: 60.19% (G:20.79% B:1.71%)
    Opponent: 39.81% (G:12.80% B:0.85%)
    Confidence: ±0.015 (+0.429..+0.460) - [0.0%]

    ¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
    Dice Seed: 271828
    Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

    eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release

    ---
    Tim Chow

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From Timothy Chow@21:1/5 to All on Tue Mar 1 08:37:42 2022
    XGID=-b----E-DA-acCA-ac-e----A-:0:0:1:62:0:0:0:0:10

    X:Player 1 O:Player 2
    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | X X O O | | O X |
    | X O | | O |
    | X O | | O |
    | | | O |
    | | | O |
    | |BAR| |
    | | | X |
    | X | | X |
    | O X | | X |
    | O X | | X O |
    | O O X X | | X O |
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 148 O: 164 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 1
    X to play 62

    ---
    Tim Chow

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From Timothy Chow@21:1/5 to All on Thu Mar 3 08:02:28 2022
    XGID=-b----E-DA-acCA-ac-e----A-:0:0:1:62:0:0:0:0:10

    X:Player 1 O:Player 2
    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | X X O O | | O X |
    | X O | | O |
    | X O | | O |
    | | | O |
    | | | O |
    | |BAR| |
    | | | X |
    | X | | X |
    | O X | | X |
    | O X | | X O |
    | O O X X | | X O |
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 148 O: 164 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 1
    X to play 62

    24/16* gives O a whole lot more return shots than 14/8 13/11*, but
    14/8 13/11* hits the less juicy blot and leaves an ugly distribution.

    1. Rollout¹ 24/16* eq:+0.422
    Player: 59.23% (G:18.95% B:1.57%)
    Opponent: 40.77% (G:10.69% B:0.48%)
    Confidence: ±0.018 (+0.404..+0.439) - [100.0%]

    2. Rollout¹ 14/8 13/11* eq:+0.332 (-0.089)
    Player: 56.94% (G:20.47% B:1.83%)
    Opponent: 43.06% (G:11.41% B:0.48%)
    Confidence: ±0.019 (+0.313..+0.351) - [0.0%]

    ¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
    Dice Seed: 271828
    Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

    eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release

    ---
    Tim Chow

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From Timothy Chow@21:1/5 to All on Fri Jul 8 08:29:10 2022
    XGID=-aab-CECBB------aaacab-b--:1:-1:1:54:0:0:0:0:10

    X:Player 1 O:Player 2
    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | O O O | | O O O O | +---+
    | | | O O O | | 2 |
    | | | O | +---+
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | |BAR| |
    | | | X |
    | | | X |
    | X | | X X |
    | X X X | | X X O |
    | X X X | | X X O O O |
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 100 O: 150 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 2, O own cube
    X to play 54

    ---
    Tim Chow

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From Timothy Chow@21:1/5 to All on Sun Jul 10 22:42:35 2022
    XGID=-aab-CECBB------aaacab-b--:1:-1:1:54:0:0:0:0:10

    X:Player 1 O:Player 2
    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | O O O | | O O O O | +---+
    | | | O O O | | 2 |
    | | | O | +---+
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | |BAR| |
    | | | X |
    | | | X |
    | X | | X X |
    | X X X | | X X O |
    | X X X | | X X O O O |
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 100 O: 150 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 2, O own cube
    X to play 54

    It may be tempting to PoH here and leave no return shots, but O's board
    is weak and we aren't really afraid of getting hit back. It might even
    turn out well for us, if O is forced to collapse while we amble our hit checker(s) back around the board. Hitting both checkers also makes it
    hard for O to make a second anchor and form a semblance of a backgame.

    1. Rollout¹ 6/2* 6/1* eq:+0.843
    Player: 77.16% (G:39.14% B:3.23%)
    Opponent: 22.84% (G:3.65% B:0.15%)
    Confidence: ±0.011 (+0.832..+0.854) - [100.0%]

    2. Rollout¹ 7/2* 5/1* eq:+0.720 (-0.123)
    Player: 73.67% (G:36.41% B:2.93%)
    Opponent: 26.33% (G:4.40% B:0.20%)
    Confidence: ±0.010 (+0.710..+0.730) - [0.0%]

    3. Rollout¹ 7/2* 6/2 eq:+0.639 (-0.204)
    Player: 72.16% (G:32.69% B:2.09%)
    Opponent: 27.84% (G:3.74% B:0.13%)
    Confidence: ±0.012 (+0.627..+0.651) - [0.0%]

    4. Rollout¹ 6/1* 5/1 eq:+0.603 (-0.241)
    Player: 71.02% (G:31.90% B:1.39%)
    Opponent: 28.98% (G:4.18% B:0.14%)
    Confidence: ±0.008 (+0.594..+0.611) - [0.0%]

    ¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
    Dice Seed: 271828
    Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

    eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release

    ---
    Tim Chow

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From Timothy Chow@21:1/5 to All on Mon Jul 25 09:05:20 2022
    XGID=-----aE-Ba--dDA--d-e----BA:0:0:1:51:0:0:0:0:10

    X:Player 1 O:Player 2
    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | X X O | | O X |
    | X O | | O X |
    | X O | | O |
    | X O | | O |
    | | X | O |
    | |BAR| |
    | | | X |
    | O | | X |
    | O | | X |
    | O X | | X |
    | O O X | | X O |
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 185 O: 150 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 1
    X to play 51

    ---
    Tim Chow

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From ah....Clem@21:1/5 to Timothy Chow on Mon Jul 25 11:39:03 2022
    On 7/25/2022 9:05 AM, Timothy Chow wrote:
    XGID=-----aE-Ba--dDA--d-e----BA:0:0:1:51:0:0:0:0:10

    X:Player 1   O:Player 2
    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
     +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
     | X  X        O    |   | O              X |
     | X           O    |   | O              X |
     | X           O    |   | O                |
     | X           O    |   | O                |
     |                  | X | O                |
     |                  |BAR|                  |
     |                  |   | X                |
     | O                |   | X                |
     | O                |   | X                |
     | O           X    |   | X                |
     | O        O  X    |   | X  O             |
     +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count  X: 185  O: 150 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 1
    X to play 51

    Hitting on the nine point leaves the fewest shots, so it's the "safe"
    play. Hitting on the five point leaves a bunch of shots, but it slots
    both five points while knocking her off the five point. That's the
    "bold" play.

    X is behind in te race and has more checkers back, so Magriel's safe v
    bold criteria point to bar/20 6/5*

    I'll wait for Tim or Stick to explain why Magriel's dicta is not
    applicable here or why the bot play is to not hit at all.


    --
    Ah....Clem
    The future is fun, the future is fair.

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From Timothy Chow@21:1/5 to All on Wed Jul 27 07:19:46 2022
    XGID=-----aE-Ba--dDA--d-e----BA:0:0:1:51:0:0:0:0:10

    X:Player 1 O:Player 2
    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | X X O | | O X |
    | X O | | O X |
    | X O | | O |
    | X O | | O |
    | | X | O |
    | |BAR| |
    | | | X |
    | O | | X |
    | O | | X |
    | O X | | X |
    | O O X | | X O |
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 185 O: 150 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 1
    X to play 51

    I like ah_clem's reasoning. Stacking a third checker on the 24pt is
    ugly and there's no need to play so safe. The variant below is a bit artificial but it illustrates this point.

    1. Rollout¹ Bar/20 6/5* eq:-0.325
    Player: 43.76% (G:10.75% B:0.47%)
    Opponent: 56.24% (G:20.39% B:1.77%)
    Confidence: ±0.010 (-0.335..-0.315) - [100.0%]

    2. Rollout¹ Bar/24 14/9* eq:-0.388 (-0.064)
    Player: 41.71% (G:10.14% B:0.43%)
    Opponent: 58.29% (G:19.00% B:1.42%)
    Confidence: ±0.009 (-0.397..-0.380) - [0.0%]

    ¹ 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
    Dice Seed: 271828
    Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

    eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release

    -------
    Variant
    -------

    XGID=-----aE-Ba--dDA--d-e---B-A:0:0:1:51:0:0:0:0:10

    X:Player 1 O:Player 2
    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | X X O | | O X |
    | X O | | O X |
    | X O | | O |
    | X O | | O |
    | | X | O |
    | |BAR| |
    | | | X |
    | O | | X |
    | O | | X |
    | O X | | X |
    | O O X | | X O |
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 183 O: 150 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 1
    X to play 51

    1. XG Roller++ Bar/24 14/9* eq:-0.317
    Player: 42.84% (G:10.15% B:0.36%)
    Opponent: 57.16% (G:17.15% B:0.90%)

    2. XG Roller++ Bar/20 6/5* eq:-0.342 (-0.025)
    Player: 43.27% (G:10.04% B:0.38%)
    Opponent: 56.73% (G:19.43% B:1.12%)

    eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release

    ---
    Tim Chow

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From Timothy Chow@21:1/5 to All on Mon Sep 12 09:13:52 2022
    XGID=---Ba-CaCBa-bC---bbbb-bA-A:0:0:1:21:0:0:0:0:10

    X:Player 1 O:Player 2
    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | X O O | | O O O X |
    | X O O | | O O O |
    | X | | |
    | | | |
    | | X | |
    | |BAR| |
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | X | | X |
    | O X X | | X X |
    | O O X X O | | X O X |
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 153 O: 138 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 1
    X to play 21

    ---
    Tim Chow

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From ah....Clem@21:1/5 to Timothy Chow on Mon Sep 12 11:19:24 2022
    On 9/12/2022 9:13 AM, Timothy Chow wrote:
    XGID=---Ba-CaCBa-bC---bbbb-bA-A:0:0:1:21:0:0:0:0:10

    X:Player 1   O:Player 2
    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
     +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
     | X           O  O |   | O  O     O  X    |
     | X           O  O |   | O  O     O       |
     | X                |   |                  |
     |                  |   |                  |
     |                  | X |                  |
     |                  |BAR|                  |
     |                  |   |                  |
     |                  |   |                  |
     |             X    |   | X                |
     | O        X  X    |   | X        X       |
     | O     O  X  X  O |   | X     O  X       |
     +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count  X: 153  O: 138 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 1
    X to play 21

    Hitting loose on the seven is usually better than hitting loose in the homeboard and exposing a direct shot. I don't know that making the
    deuce point anchor is better than entering with the ace and giving more
    chances to spring a checker of make the four point anchor. Perhaps
    bar/24 9/7* is the right idea?

    Not sure, so I'll just make the "obvious" play and await an explanation
    of why it's wrong. bar/23 8/7*

    --
    Ah....Clem
    The future is fun, the future is fair.

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From Stick Rice@21:1/5 to ah....Clem on Mon Sep 12 15:22:22 2022
    On Monday, September 12, 2022 at 11:19:27 AM UTC-4, ah....Clem wrote:
    On 9/12/2022 9:13 AM, Timothy Chow wrote:
    XGID=---Ba-CaCBa-bC---bbbb-bA-A:0:0:1:21:0:0:0:0:10

    X:Player 1 O:Player 2
    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | X O O | | O O O X |
    | X O O | | O O O |
    | X | | |
    | | | |
    | | X | |
    | |BAR| |
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | X | | X |
    | O X X | | X X |
    | O O X X O | | X O X |
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 153 O: 138 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 1
    X to play 21
    Hitting loose on the seven is usually better than hitting loose in the homeboard and exposing a direct shot. I don't know that making the
    deuce point anchor is better than entering with the ace and giving more chances to spring a checker of make the four point anchor. Perhaps
    bar/24 9/7* is the right idea?

    Not sure, so I'll just make the "obvious" play and await an explanation
    of why it's wrong. bar/23 8/7*

    --
    Ah....Clem
    The future is fun, the future is fair.

    The reason 23, 7* is wrong is you basically prime yourself.

    Stick

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From Timothy Chow@21:1/5 to All on Wed Sep 14 07:58:43 2022
    XGID=---Ba-CaCBa-bC---bbbb-bA-A:0:0:1:21:0:0:0:0:10

    X:Player 1 O:Player 2
    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | X O O | | O O O X |
    | X O O | | O O O |
    | X | | |
    | | | |
    | | X | |
    | |BAR| |
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | X | | X |
    | O X X | | X X |
    | O O X X O | | X O X |
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 153 O: 138 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 1
    X to play 21

    The subject line is deliberately misleading. XG does not hit. In this position, what should be uppermost in your mind is dealing with O's
    priming threat.

    Having said that, I should say that at gammon go, XG does hit. Although
    8/7* is the "safer" hit, once again safety is less important than
    keeping your back checkers split, so that they have a better chance of
    escaping from behind O's prime.

    1. Rollout¹ Bar/24 23/21 eq:-0.636
    Player: 33.84% (G:8.28% B:0.37%)
    Opponent: 66.16% (G:19.63% B:0.91%)
    Confidence: ±0.009 (-0.645..-0.627) - [100.0%]

    2. Rollout¹ Bar/24 6/4* eq:-0.707 (-0.072)
    Player: 33.56% (G:10.31% B:0.52%)
    Opponent: 66.44% (G:24.10% B:1.71%)
    Confidence: ±0.010 (-0.718..-0.697) - [0.0%]

    3. Rollout¹ Bar/23 8/7* eq:-0.742 (-0.106)
    Player: 31.58% (G:8.64% B:0.40%)
    Opponent: 68.42% (G:19.77% B:1.20%)
    Confidence: ±0.010 (-0.752..-0.732) - [0.0%]

    ¹ 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
    Dice Seed: 271828
    Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

    eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release

    ---
    Tim Chow

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From Timothy Chow@21:1/5 to All on Thu Nov 3 08:58:16 2022
    XGID=--aBA-D-a-A-dD---d-e----BA:0:0:1:52:0:0:0:0:10

    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | X O | | O X |
    | X O | | O X |
    | X O | | O |
    | X O | | O |
    | | X | O |
    | |BAR| |
    | | | |
    | O | | X |
    | O | | X |
    | O | | X X |
    | O X O | | X X X O |
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 169 O: 154 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 1
    X to play 52

    ---
    Tim Chow

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From ah...Clem@21:1/5 to Timothy Chow on Fri Nov 4 13:59:57 2022
    On 11/3/2022 8:58 AM, Timothy Chow wrote:
    XGID=--aBA-D-a-A-dD---d-e----BA:0:0:1:52:0:0:0:0:10

    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game  +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
     | X           O    |   | O              X |
     | X           O    |   | O              X |
     | X           O    |   | O                |  | X           O    |   | O                |  |                  | X | O                |  |                  |BAR|                  |
     |                  |   |                  |
     | O                |   | X                |  | O                |   | X                |  | O                |   | X        X       |  | O     X     O    |   | X     X  X  O    |  +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count  X: 169  O: 154 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 1
    X to play 52

    Maybe we should just make the four point instead? It gives us a clear
    advantage in position and if we can hit something soon we might have a cube.


    bar/20 6/4.

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From Timothy Chow@21:1/5 to All on Sat Nov 5 10:12:59 2022
    XGID=--aBA-D-a-A-dD---d-e----BA:0:0:1:52:0:0:0:0:10

    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | X O | | O X |
    | X O | | O X |
    | X O | | O |
    | X O | | O |
    | | X | O |
    | |BAR| |
    | | | |
    | O | | X |
    | O | | X |
    | O | | X X |
    | O X O | | X X X O |
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 169 O: 154 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 1
    X to play 52

    Ah...clem cleverly avoided my subject-line trap. O is not really
    threatening much, so there's no urgent need for a tempo hit, and
    the hitting plays are not very attractive compared to just making
    the 4pt.

    1. Rollout¹ Bar/20 6/4 eq:-0.080
    Player: 47.36% (G:15.83% B:0.61%)
    Opponent: 52.64% (G:14.09% B:1.11%)
    Confidence: ±0.016 (-0.097..-0.064) - [100.0%]

    2. Rollout¹ Bar/23 13/8* eq:-0.169 (-0.088)
    Player: 46.68% (G:14.84% B:0.59%)
    Opponent: 53.32% (G:19.04% B:1.91%)
    Confidence: ±0.018 (-0.187..-0.151) - [0.0%]

    3. Rollout¹ Bar/20 4/2* eq:-0.211 (-0.131)
    Player: 44.61% (G:14.61% B:0.53%)
    Opponent: 55.39% (G:17.10% B:1.43%)
    Confidence: ±0.016 (-0.227..-0.195) - [0.0%]

    4. Rollout¹ Bar/20 10/8* eq:-0.237 (-0.156)
    Player: 45.23% (G:13.38% B:0.54%)
    Opponent: 54.77% (G:18.59% B:1.51%)
    Confidence: ±0.018 (-0.254..-0.219) - [0.0%]

    ¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
    Dice Seed: 271828
    Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

    eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

    ---
    Tim Chow

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From Timothy Chow@21:1/5 to All on Tue Feb 7 10:11:48 2023
    XGID=-BaB--CB--a-cD-a-d-e----B-:0:0:1:54:0:0:0:0:10

    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | X O O | | O X |
    | X O | | O X |
    | X O | | O |
    | X O | | O |
    | | | O |
    | |BAR| |
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | O | | X |
    | O X | | X X X |
    | O O X | | X X O X |
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 140 O: 149 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 1
    X to play 54

    ---
    Tim Chow

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From ah....Clem@21:1/5 to Timothy Chow on Tue Feb 7 18:02:24 2023
    On 2/7/2023 10:11 AM, Timothy Chow wrote:
    XGID=-BaB--CB--a-cD-a-d-e----B-:0:0:1:54:0:0:0:0:10

    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
     +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
     | X     O     O    |   | O              X |
     | X           O    |   | O              X |
     | X           O    |   | O                |
     | X           O    |   | O                |
     |                  |   | O                |
     |                  |BAR|                  |
     |                  |   |                  |
     |                  |   |                  |
     | O                |   | X                |
     | O              X |   | X        X     X |
     | O     O        X |   | X        X  O  X |
     +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count  X: 140  O: 149 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 1
    X to play 54

    If I hit on the deuce, I'll cover it despite having to break the seven
    to do so. I'd do that at gammon go, but escaping with tempo while taking
    a ~30 pip lead is too good to pass up.

    24/15*

    Observation: the likely cube action next turn is probably an important,
    if not decisive, factor here. But not sure how to evaluate that. 24/15*
    seems to lead to more cubes, but that may be because the POH play leads
    to a TG position.

    --
    Ah....Clem
    The future is fun, the future is fair.

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From Stick Rice@21:1/5 to ah....Clem on Wed Feb 8 12:04:50 2023
    On Tuesday, February 7, 2023 at 6:02:25 PM UTC-5, ah....Clem wrote:
    On 2/7/2023 10:11 AM, Timothy Chow wrote:
    XGID=-BaB--CB--a-cD-a-d-e----B-:0:0:1:54:0:0:0:0:10

    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | X O O | | O X |
    | X O | | O X |
    | X O | | O |
    | X O | | O |
    | | | O |
    | |BAR| |
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | O | | X |
    | O X | | X X X |
    | O O X | | X X O X |
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 140 O: 149 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 1
    X to play 54
    If I hit on the deuce, I'll cover it despite having to break the seven
    to do so. I'd do that at gammon go, but escaping with tempo while taking
    a ~30 pip lead is too good to pass up.

    24/15*

    Observation: the likely cube action next turn is probably an important,
    if not decisive, factor here. But not sure how to evaluate that. 24/15* seems to lead to more cubes, but that may be because the POH play leads
    to a TG position.

    --
    Ah....Clem
    The future is fun, the future is fair.

    Hitting in the outfield allows your opponent to anchor up with 15 numbers which essentially stymies your attack potential. There are also however many rolls simply hit back from the roof. If you make the two point he never anchors up and almost never
    hits back from the roof. If we even simplify eyeing the cube next turn making the two point + dance = 16 immediate wins. Hitting in the outfield + dance = 9 immediate wins. That's a lot of ground to make.

    Generally speaking also, it's better to PoH and make a four point board than to hit elsewhere.

    Stick

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From Timothy Chow@21:1/5 to All on Thu Feb 9 09:33:45 2023
    XGID=-BaB--CB--a-cD-a-d-e----B-:0:0:1:54:0:0:0:0:10

    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | X O O | | O X |
    | X O | | O X |
    | X O | | O |
    | X O | | O |
    | | | O |
    | |BAR| |
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | O | | X |
    | O X | | X X X |
    | O O X | | X X O X |
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 140 O: 149 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 1
    X to play 54

    Hitting in the opponent's outfield is typically a no-brainer in
    the early game, but as Stick points out, the PoH play makes a
    four-point board and stops O from anchoring. If X's back checkers
    were starting to get boxed (see variant below) then the decision
    would be closer, but the rollout below says that 24/15* is a
    whopper.

    1. Rollout¹ 7/2* 6/2 eq:+0.706
    Player: 64.93% (G:38.60% B:1.04%)
    Opponent: 35.07% (G:7.48% B:0.38%)
    Confidence: ±0.013 (+0.693..+0.719) - [100.0%]

    2. Rollout¹ 24/15* eq:+0.599 (-0.107)
    Player: 62.61% (G:28.76% B:1.07%)
    Opponent: 37.39% (G:9.21% B:0.41%)
    Confidence: ±0.014 (+0.585..+0.613) - [0.0%]

    ¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
    Dice Seed: 271828
    Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

    eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

    -------
    Variant
    -------

    XGID=-BaB--CB--a-cD-a-cbd----B-:0:0:1:54:0:0:0:0:10

    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | X O O O | | O X |
    | X O O | | O X |
    | X O | | O |
    | X | | O |
    | | | |
    | |BAR| |
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | O | | X |
    | O X | | X X X |
    | O O X | | X X O X |
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 140 O: 149 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 1
    X to play 54

    1. Rollout¹ 7/2* 6/2 eq:+0.394
    Player: 55.23% (G:32.87% B:0.90%)
    Opponent: 44.77% (G:9.67% B:0.51%)
    Confidence: ±0.011 (+0.383..+0.405) - [98.1%]

    2. Rollout¹ 24/15* eq:+0.377 (-0.017)
    Player: 56.10% (G:25.16% B:0.90%)
    Opponent: 43.90% (G:10.24% B:0.47%)
    Confidence: ±0.012 (+0.365..+0.389) - [1.9%]

    ¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
    Dice Seed: 271828
    Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

    eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

    ---
    Tim Chow

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From Timothy Chow@21:1/5 to All on Mon Mar 27 09:47:02 2023
    XGID=-----aE-C-a-cD--bcBe-----A:0:0:1:44:0:0:0:0:10

    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | X O O X | | O |
    | X O O X | | O |
    | X O | | O |
    | X | | O |
    | | X | O |
    | |BAR| |
    | | | X |
    | | | X |
    | O X | | X |
    | O X | | X |
    | O O X | | X O |
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 167 O: 146 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 1
    X to play 44

    ---
    Tim Chow

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From Robert Zimmerman@21:1/5 to Timothy Chow on Mon Mar 27 09:07:25 2023
    On Monday, March 27, 2023 at 9:47:05 AM UTC-4, Timothy Chow wrote:
    XGID=-----aE-C-a-cD--bcBe-----A:0:0:1:44:0:0:0:0:10

    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | X O O X | | O |
    | X O O X | | O |
    | X O | | O |
    | X | | O |
    | | X | O |
    | |BAR| |
    | | | X |
    | | | X |
    | O X | | X |
    | O X | | X |
    | O O X | | X O |
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 167 O: 146 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 1
    X to play 44

    ---
    Tim Chow

    I like hitting the blot on 5. It leaves about twice as many shots as hitting on 10 (O might make the 5 point rather than hit after the latter play). But it doesn't afford O the chance to make the 5 point. And if we're fortunate enough to not be hit,
    which in itself is not so problematic given O's wide open board and our preserved bar point, then we're in a great position offensively. The other problem with hitting the blot on 10 is that even if your blots are left alone by O, the clean up will not
    be easy or constructive.

    Bar/21 13/5 13/9

    Bob

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From Timothy Chow@21:1/5 to All on Wed Mar 29 10:10:25 2023
    XGID=-----aE-C-a-cD--bcBe-----A:0:0:1:44:0:0:0:0:10

    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | X O O X | | O |
    | X O O X | | O |
    | X O | | O |
    | X | | O |
    | | X | O |
    | |BAR| |
    | | | X |
    | | | X |
    | O X | | X |
    | O X | | X |
    | O O X | | X O |
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 167 O: 146 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 1
    X to play 44

    Like Bob, I hit on the 5pt. When to hit in my outer board versus when
    to hit in my inner board is something I'm still trying to puzzle out.
    Hitting in the outer board gains more pips, sends another checker back,
    and typically gives fewer return shots. Hitting in the inner board
    starts to make that point myself and prevents the opponent from
    anchoring. In this position, my bar-point anchor was an asset that I
    didn't want to give up, but XG prefers that to 13/9 13/5*. Not sure I
    fully understand this one; see also the variant below.

    1. Rollout¹ Bar/21 18/14 18/10* eq:-0.168
    Player: 46.28% (G:10.12% B:0.44%)
    Opponent: 53.72% (G:14.73% B:0.62%)
    Confidence: ±0.014 (-0.182..-0.154) - [100.0%]

    2. Rollout¹ Bar/21 13/9 13/5* eq:-0.246 (-0.078)
    Player: 43.84% (G:10.73% B:0.36%)
    Opponent: 56.16% (G:14.33% B:0.63%)
    Confidence: ±0.016 (-0.262..-0.230) - [0.0%]

    3. Rollout¹ Bar/21 18/10* 10/6 eq:-0.262 (-0.094)
    Player: 44.14% (G:8.75% B:0.39%)
    Opponent: 55.86% (G:15.09% B:0.53%)
    Confidence: ±0.013 (-0.275..-0.250) - [0.0%]

    4. Rollout¹ Bar/21 13/9(2) 8/4 eq:-0.265 (-0.097)
    Player: 42.56% (G:8.46% B:0.29%)
    Opponent: 57.44% (G:9.38% B:0.37%)
    Confidence: ±0.012 (-0.277..-0.253) - [0.0%]

    ¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
    Dice Seed: 271828
    Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

    eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

    -------
    Variant
    -------

    XGID=-----aD-C-a-dE--bbBe-----A:0:0:1:44:0:0:0:0:10

    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | X O O X | | O |
    | X O O X | | O |
    | X | | O |
    | X | | O |
    | X | X | O |
    | |BAR| |
    | | | |
    | O | | X |
    | O X | | X |
    | O X | | X |
    | O O X | | X O |
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 174 O: 151 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 1
    X to play 44

    1. Rollout¹ Bar/21 18/14 18/10* eq:-0.138
    Player: 46.98% (G:9.74% B:0.48%)
    Opponent: 53.02% (G:14.48% B:0.62%)
    Confidence: ±0.015 (-0.153..-0.123) - [93.8%]

    2. Rollout¹ Bar/21 13/9 13/5* eq:-0.155 (-0.017)
    Player: 46.25% (G:11.25% B:0.41%)
    Opponent: 53.75% (G:13.83% B:0.58%)
    Confidence: ±0.014 (-0.169..-0.140) - [6.2%]

    3. Rollout¹ Bar/21 13/9(3) eq:-0.171 (-0.033)
    Player: 44.76% (G:8.67% B:0.32%)
    Opponent: 55.24% (G:8.40% B:0.32%)
    Confidence: ±0.013 (-0.184..-0.158) - [0.0%]

    ¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
    Dice Seed: 271828
    Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

    eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

    ---
    Tim Chow

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From Robert Zimmerman@21:1/5 to Timothy Chow on Wed Mar 29 09:07:20 2023
    On Wednesday, March 29, 2023 at 10:10:27 AM UTC-4, Timothy Chow wrote:
    XGID=-----aE-C-a-cD--bcBe-----A:0:0:1:44:0:0:0:0:10

    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | X O O X | | O |
    | X O O X | | O |
    | X O | | O |
    | X | | O |
    | | X | O |
    | |BAR| |
    | | | X |
    | | | X |
    | O X | | X |
    | O X | | X |
    | O O X | | X O |
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 167 O: 146 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 1
    X to play 44
    Like Bob, I hit on the 5pt. When to hit in my outer board versus when
    to hit in my inner board is something I'm still trying to puzzle out. Hitting in the outer board gains more pips, sends another checker back,
    and typically gives fewer return shots. Hitting in the inner board
    starts to make that point myself and prevents the opponent from
    anchoring. In this position, my bar-point anchor was an asset that I
    didn't want to give up, but XG prefers that to 13/9 13/5*. Not sure I
    fully understand this one; see also the variant below.

    1. Rollout¹ Bar/21 18/14 18/10* eq:-0.168
    Player: 46.28% (G:10.12% B:0.44%)
    Opponent: 53.72% (G:14.73% B:0.62%)
    Confidence: ±0.014 (-0.182..-0.154) - [100.0%]

    2. Rollout¹ Bar/21 13/9 13/5* eq:-0.246 (-0.078)
    Player: 43.84% (G:10.73% B:0.36%)
    Opponent: 56.16% (G:14.33% B:0.63%)
    Confidence: ±0.016 (-0.262..-0.230) - [0.0%]

    3. Rollout¹ Bar/21 18/10* 10/6 eq:-0.262 (-0.094)
    Player: 44.14% (G:8.75% B:0.39%)
    Opponent: 55.86% (G:15.09% B:0.53%)
    Confidence: ±0.013 (-0.275..-0.250) - [0.0%]

    4. Rollout¹ Bar/21 13/9(2) 8/4 eq:-0.265 (-0.097)
    Player: 42.56% (G:8.46% B:0.29%)
    Opponent: 57.44% (G:9.38% B:0.37%)
    Confidence: ±0.012 (-0.277..-0.253) - [0.0%]

    ¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
    Dice Seed: 271828
    Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

    eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

    -------
    Variant
    -------

    XGID=-----aD-C-a-dE--bbBe-----A:0:0:1:44:0:0:0:0:10
    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | X O O X | | O |
    | X O O X | | O |
    | X | | O |
    | X | | O |
    | X | X | O |
    | |BAR| |
    | | | |
    | O | | X |
    | O X | | X |
    | O X | | X |
    | O O X | | X O |
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 174 O: 151 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 1
    X to play 44
    1. Rollout¹ Bar/21 18/14 18/10* eq:-0.138
    Player: 46.98% (G:9.74% B:0.48%)
    Opponent: 53.02% (G:14.48% B:0.62%)
    Confidence: ±0.015 (-0.153..-0.123) - [93.8%]

    2. Rollout¹ Bar/21 13/9 13/5* eq:-0.155 (-0.017)
    Player: 46.25% (G:11.25% B:0.41%)
    Opponent: 53.75% (G:13.83% B:0.58%)
    Confidence: ±0.014 (-0.169..-0.140) - [6.2%]

    3. Rollout¹ Bar/21 13/9(3) eq:-0.171 (-0.033)
    Player: 44.76% (G:8.67% B:0.32%)
    Opponent: 55.24% (G:8.40% B:0.32%)
    Confidence: ±0.013 (-0.184..-0.158) - [0.0%]

    ¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
    Dice Seed: 271828
    Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

    eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

    ---
    Tim Chow
    I'll hazard a guess. Maybe the idea, which I read often, is that given two positions that seem to be equivalent in terms of risk, you should prefer the more offensive play. I think it's easy to be fooled into thinking that hitting on the 5 point is more
    offensive in trying to keep O off of there, but in fact, O is going to hit you with a five rather than anchor up for most rolls with a 5. And if O does anchor, that's a more defensive stance leaving you to play offense.
    The variant you created removes an attacking checker from the five point which weakens the offensive idea.

    Just spitballing.

    Bob

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From Robert Zimmerman@21:1/5 to Robert Zimmerman on Wed Mar 29 09:11:23 2023
    On Wednesday, March 29, 2023 at 12:07:21 PM UTC-4, Robert Zimmerman wrote:
    On Wednesday, March 29, 2023 at 10:10:27 AM UTC-4, Timothy Chow wrote:
    XGID=-----aE-C-a-cD--bcBe-----A:0:0:1:44:0:0:0:0:10

    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | X O O X | | O |
    | X O O X | | O |
    | X O | | O |
    | X | | O |
    | | X | O |
    | |BAR| |
    | | | X |
    | | | X |
    | O X | | X |
    | O X | | X |
    | O O X | | X O |
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 167 O: 146 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 1
    X to play 44
    Like Bob, I hit on the 5pt. When to hit in my outer board versus when
    to hit in my inner board is something I'm still trying to puzzle out. Hitting in the outer board gains more pips, sends another checker back, and typically gives fewer return shots. Hitting in the inner board
    starts to make that point myself and prevents the opponent from
    anchoring. In this position, my bar-point anchor was an asset that I didn't want to give up, but XG prefers that to 13/9 13/5*. Not sure I fully understand this one; see also the variant below.

    1. Rollout¹ Bar/21 18/14 18/10* eq:-0.168
    Player: 46.28% (G:10.12% B:0.44%)
    Opponent: 53.72% (G:14.73% B:0.62%)
    Confidence: ±0.014 (-0.182..-0.154) - [100.0%]

    2. Rollout¹ Bar/21 13/9 13/5* eq:-0.246 (-0.078)
    Player: 43.84% (G:10.73% B:0.36%)
    Opponent: 56.16% (G:14.33% B:0.63%)
    Confidence: ±0.016 (-0.262..-0.230) - [0.0%]

    3. Rollout¹ Bar/21 18/10* 10/6 eq:-0.262 (-0.094)
    Player: 44.14% (G:8.75% B:0.39%)
    Opponent: 55.86% (G:15.09% B:0.53%)
    Confidence: ±0.013 (-0.275..-0.250) - [0.0%]

    4. Rollout¹ Bar/21 13/9(2) 8/4 eq:-0.265 (-0.097)
    Player: 42.56% (G:8.46% B:0.29%)
    Opponent: 57.44% (G:9.38% B:0.37%)
    Confidence: ±0.012 (-0.277..-0.253) - [0.0%]

    ¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
    Dice Seed: 271828
    Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

    eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

    -------
    Variant
    -------

    XGID=-----aD-C-a-dE--bbBe-----A:0:0:1:44:0:0:0:0:10
    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | X O O X | | O |
    | X O O X | | O |
    | X | | O |
    | X | | O |
    | X | X | O |
    | |BAR| |
    | | | |
    | O | | X |
    | O X | | X |
    | O X | | X |
    | O O X | | X O |
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 174 O: 151 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 1
    X to play 44
    1. Rollout¹ Bar/21 18/14 18/10* eq:-0.138
    Player: 46.98% (G:9.74% B:0.48%)
    Opponent: 53.02% (G:14.48% B:0.62%)
    Confidence: ±0.015 (-0.153..-0.123) - [93.8%]

    2. Rollout¹ Bar/21 13/9 13/5* eq:-0.155 (-0.017)
    Player: 46.25% (G:11.25% B:0.41%)
    Opponent: 53.75% (G:13.83% B:0.58%)
    Confidence: ±0.014 (-0.169..-0.140) - [6.2%]

    3. Rollout¹ Bar/21 13/9(3) eq:-0.171 (-0.033)
    Player: 44.76% (G:8.67% B:0.32%)
    Opponent: 55.24% (G:8.40% B:0.32%)
    Confidence: ±0.013 (-0.184..-0.158) - [0.0%]

    ¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
    Dice Seed: 271828
    Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

    eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

    ---
    Tim Chow
    I'll hazard a guess. Maybe the idea, which I read often, is that given two positions that seem to be equivalent in terms of risk, you should prefer the more offensive play. I think it's easy to be fooled into thinking that hitting on the 5 point is
    more offensive in trying to keep O off of there, but in fact, O is going to hit you with a five rather than anchor up for most rolls with a 5. And if O does anchor, that's a more defensive stance leaving you to play offense.
    The variant you created removes an attacking checker from the five point which weakens the offensive idea.

    Just spitballing.

    Bob
    I should add that taking down the defensive bar point is thematic.
    Bob

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From Timothy Chow@21:1/5 to All on Mon Nov 13 09:22:45 2023
    XGID=-aBBaaCB-a--cB---bacbC---A:1:-1:1:42:0:0:0:0:10

    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | X O O | | O O X | +---+
    | X O | | O O X | | 2 |
    | | | O X | +---+
    | | | |
    | | X | |
    | |BAR| |
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | O | | X |
    | O X | | X X X |
    | O O X | | X O O X X O |
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 156 O: 171 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 2, O own cube
    X to play 42

    ---
    Tim Chow

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From ah...Clem@21:1/5 to Timothy Chow on Wed Nov 15 12:11:36 2023
    On 11/13/2023 9:22 AM, Timothy Chow wrote:
    XGID=-aBBaaCB-a--cB---bacbC---A:1:-1:1:42:0:0:0:0:10

    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game  +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
     | X           O  O |   | O  O  X          | +---+  | X           O    |   | O  O  X          | | 2 |  |                  |   | O     X          | +---+
     |                  |   |                  |
     |                  | X |                  |
     |                  |BAR|                  |
     |                  |   |                  |
     |                  |   |                  |
     | O                |   | X                |  | O              X |   | X        X  X    |
     | O        O     X |   | X  O  O  X  X  O |  +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count  X: 156  O: 171 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 2, O own cube
    X to play 42



    My gut tells me that slotting the four while knocking her off that
    valuable point is better than abandoning the midpoint and allowing more
    rolls for her to make an advanced anchor. My gut is often wrong BTW.

    And with a ~20 pip race lead perhaps not hitting is the right idea, but
    I'm not in the mood to bury a checker on the deuce point. XG does not
    have moods, so perhaps that's what she will do.

    I'll enter with the four (ahead in the race, so no need to hang back)
    and hit loose on the four. bar/21 6/4*

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From Timothy Chow@21:1/5 to All on Wed Nov 15 22:57:57 2023
    XGID=-aBBaaCB-a--cB---bacbC---A:1:-1:1:42:0:0:0:0:10

    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | X O O | | O O X | +---+
    | X O | | O O X | | 2 |
    | | | O X | +---+
    | | | |
    | | X | |
    | |BAR| |
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | O | | X |
    | O X | | X X X |
    | O O X | | X O O X X O |
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 156 O: 171 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 2, O own cube
    X to play 42

    6/4* obviously gives O more return shots, but I think that a more
    important consideration is that bar/21 gives X a very inflexible
    position. See the variant below.

    1. Rollout¹ Bar/23 13/9* eq:-0.180
    Player: 47.24% (G:24.07% B:2.59%)
    Opponent: 52.76% (G:15.91% B:0.83%)
    Confidence: ±0.015 (-0.196..-0.165) - [100.0%]

    2. Rollout¹ Bar/21 6/4* eq:-0.271 (-0.091)
    Player: 45.27% (G:20.09% B:2.44%)
    Opponent: 54.73% (G:16.73% B:0.76%)
    Confidence: ±0.014 (-0.285..-0.257) - [0.0%]

    ¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
    Dice Seed: 271828
    Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

    eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

    -------
    Variant
    -------

    XGID=-aBBaaCB-a--cB---bacbB-A-A:1:-1:1:42:0:0:0:0:10

    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | X O O | | O O X X | +---+
    | X O | | O O X | | 2 |
    | | | O | +---+
    | | | |
    | | X | |
    | |BAR| |
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | O | | X |
    | O X | | X X X |
    | O O X | | X O O X X O |
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 158 O: 171 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 2, O own cube
    X to play 42

    1. Rollout¹ Bar/21 6/4* eq:-0.229
    Player: 46.59% (G:21.02% B:2.67%)
    Opponent: 53.41% (G:16.59% B:0.82%)
    Confidence: ±0.008 (-0.237..-0.221) - [99.4%]

    2. Rollout¹ Bar/23 13/9* eq:-0.244 (-0.015)
    Player: 45.55% (G:23.26% B:2.55%)
    Opponent: 54.45% (G:17.51% B:0.88%)
    Confidence: ±0.009 (-0.253..-0.236) - [0.6%]

    ¹ 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
    Dice Seed: 271828
    Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

    eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

    ---
    Tim Chow

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From Timothy Chow@21:1/5 to All on Wed Dec 13 09:50:07 2023
    XGID=---a-BDaB-B-bCA--c-bc-c-A-:0:0:1:21:0:0:0:0:10

    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | X X O | | O O O X |
    | X O | | O O O |
    | X O | | O O |
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | |BAR| |
    | | | |
    | | | X |
    | | | X |
    | O X X | | X X |
    | O X X O | | X X O |
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 147 O: 126 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 1
    X to play 21

    ---
    Tim Chow

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From Timothy Chow@21:1/5 to All on Fri Dec 15 09:40:09 2023
    XGID=---a-BDaB-B-bCA--c-bc-c-A-:0:0:1:21:0:0:0:0:10

    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | X X O | | O O O X |
    | X O | | O O O |
    | X O | | O O |
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | |BAR| |
    | | | |
    | | | X |
    | | | X |
    | O X X | | X X |
    | O X X O | | X X O |
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 147 O: 126 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 1
    X to play 21

    I opted for 8/7*/5 to try to reduce my blot count, but it's about
    the same number of return shots either way and my 8pt is a valuable
    asset in this position.

    1. Rollout¹ 10/7* eq:-0.215
    Player: 47.29% (G:13.13% B:0.66%)
    Opponent: 52.71% (G:26.13% B:2.35%)
    Confidence: ±0.016 (-0.230..-0.199) - [100.0%]

    2. Rollout¹ 6/3* eq:-0.312 (-0.098)
    Player: 44.57% (G:12.86% B:0.70%)
    Opponent: 55.43% (G:25.71% B:1.56%)
    Confidence: ±0.015 (-0.327..-0.297) - [0.0%]

    3. Rollout¹ 8/7* 7/5 eq:-0.316 (-0.101)
    Player: 44.02% (G:12.81% B:0.63%)
    Opponent: 55.98% (G:26.78% B:1.70%)
    Confidence: ±0.016 (-0.331..-0.300) - [0.0%]

    ¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
    Dice Seed: 271828
    Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

    eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

    ---
    Tim Chow

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)