• Double 5's again

    From Timothy Chow@21:1/5 to All on Thu Feb 22 08:27:09 2024
    XGID=-a---BDCBA--bB---cbc--bbA-:0:0:1:55:0:0:0:0:10

    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | X O O | | O O O X |
    | X O O | | O O O |
    | O | | O |
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | |BAR| |
    | | | |
    | | | X |
    | X | | X |
    | O X X | | X X |
    | O X X X | | X X O |
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 130 O: 116 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 1
    X to play 55

    ---
    Tim Chow

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From Timothy Chow@21:1/5 to All on Sat Feb 24 22:31:03 2024
    XGID=-a---BDCBA--bB---cbc--bbA-:0:0:1:55:0:0:0:0:10

    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | X O O | | O O O X |
    | X O O | | O O O |
    | O | | O |
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | |BAR| |
    | | | |
    | | | X |
    | X | | X |
    | O X X | | X X |
    | O X X X | | X X O |
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 130 O: 116 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 1
    X to play 55

    I tried to blitz here, but XG says that's a whopper. If O had another
    blot we might pick up, then blitzing would be the clear choice, but
    the trouble with blitzing here is that if O manages to hop her blot
    into the outfield then our advantage dissipates. Playing 13/3(2)
    threatens to make a six-prime, which would be extremely strong.

    1. Rollout¹ 13/3(2) eq:+0.455
    Player: 60.60% (G:15.51% B:0.56%)
    Opponent: 39.40% (G:7.54% B:0.22%)
    Confidence: ±0.013 (+0.442..+0.467) - [100.0%]

    2. Rollout¹ 8/3(2) 6/1*(2) eq:+0.337 (-0.117)
    Player: 57.15% (G:17.72% B:0.23%)
    Opponent: 42.85% (G:8.01% B:0.29%)
    Confidence: ±0.011 (+0.326..+0.349) - [0.0%]

    3. Rollout¹ 7/2(2) 6/1*(2) eq:+0.276 (-0.179)
    Player: 55.31% (G:20.08% B:0.17%)
    Opponent: 44.69% (G:10.71% B:0.51%)
    Confidence: ±0.012 (+0.264..+0.287) - [0.0%]

    ¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
    Dice Seed: 271828
    Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

    eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

    -------
    Variant
    -------

    XGID=-a---BDCB---bC---cbc--bbA-:0:0:1:55:0:0:0:0:10

    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | X O O | | O O O X |
    | X O O | | O O O |
    | X O | | O |
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | |BAR| |
    | | | |
    | | | X |
    | X | | X |
    | O X X | | X X |
    | O X X | | X X O |
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 134 O: 116 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 1
    X to play 55

    1. Rollout¹ 8/3(2) 6/1*(2) eq:+0.257
    Player: 55.63% (G:15.58% B:0.19%)
    Opponent: 44.37% (G:7.50% B:0.25%)
    Confidence: ±0.010 (+0.247..+0.267) - [99.8%]

    2. Rollout¹ 13/3(2) eq:+0.234 (-0.023)
    Player: 56.45% (G:15.04% B:0.71%)
    Opponent: 43.55% (G:11.13% B:0.33%)
    Confidence: ±0.012 (+0.222..+0.246) - [0.2%]

    ¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
    Dice Seed: 271828
    Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

    eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

    ---
    Tim Chow

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)